Mitterrand's gamble
Sam White
Paris P.nor Mitterrand, that was one's first reaction as the election results unfolded on tele
vision in the first round of the French gen eral elections last Sunday night. It seemed then that no humiliation was being spared luM when the first results indicated that the outcome would be disappointing, for the left; his spokesman M Claude Estier announced that he would make no statement until the final results were in. Then, five minutes before Georges March°.is's much publicised appearance on the screen flanked by the entire polit-bureau, Mit terrand made a brief statement in which he claimed that the socialists had achieved
their major objectives: they would emerge as the biggest party in France with seven Million voters behind them, and the left would have a majority in the country whatever the outcome in terms of seats in the second round. before the night was out he Was proved wrong on every point. The G.aullists, not the socialists, proved to be the bt.ggest vote-catchers; he was well short of his seven million target and the left — even including the extreme left — failed to get 50 Per cent of the vote. The one forecast, however, on which his Whole strategy was based and which he did not dare mention publicly also proved wrong. He had hoped for a socialist lead over the communists of at least five or six Per cent — instead he led them by only a bare three Per cent. In short the communists had succeeded in their major strategy which was %ioncerned less with doctrine than with Power — that is, to ensure that the left was not so 'restructured' by Mitterrand as to Make the communists junior partners in the left alliance. Now that this danger had been averted by Sunday's vote, and having won a Previous assurance that cabinet posts in the event of a left victory would be distributed Ill Proportion to votes gained, the communists were able to go to their meeting With Mitterrand and Robert Fabre of the left radicals on Monday in a genial mood and sign a vague document promising reciprocity within the left coalition for the second round, and leaving the issues over which ,theY had been in bitter dispute during the iast six months in abeyance until after the elections. They were able to do so all the more r.endily because they are leading the socialist,s in a remarkably high number of constituencies which socialist withdrawal will now assure them of winning. In those circumstances, the communists will be the real profiteers of the somewhat shoddy deal struck between the three party leaders last Monday. It was Marchais who appeared to
have climbed down on his tough demands of only the previous night, and Mitterrand whose face had been saved, but there was no doubt which face wore the broader grin at the conclusion of the 'reconciliation' ceremony. However, Mitterand may propose but it is the socialist voters who will do the disposing. How many of them will follow his instructions to vote communist where the socialist has been withdrawn in accordance with the agreement? This is anybody's guess but it holds the key to the outcome of next Sunday's vote.
What seems certain is that, this time, Mitterrand will not be able to win both on the swings and the roundabouts. Having won a lot of votes precisely because of the breach with the communists it is more than doubtful that he will be able to deliver them to communists as a result of a shot-gun wedding. The transfer of socialist votes to the communists was orderly in the municipal elections last year, but it is unlikely to be nearly so orderly this time. It is interesting in this connection to recall three recent by-elections in the Paris region—two cantonal and one municipal—all of which gave a much more accurate prediction of what might happen in the general elections than any of the public opinion polls. All three showed a marked reluctance by socialist voters to vote for communists in the second round with the result that all three were won by the present majority. The ensuing communist outcry about socialist 'treason' was positively ear-shattering. Then there is another aspect of vote transfers, this time concerning the communists and their legendary discipline in such matters. It is precisely at such moments that what might be called the dirty tricks department of the party comes into operation.
The party may transfer its votes to better-placed socialists in most constituencies but it will also mobilise a fraction of its disciplined troops to vote against right wing socialists in marginal seats. This is a tactic it has often adopted in the past and, as in many of such seats the outcome depends on a few hundred votes, it is the merest child's play to bring it to a successful conclusion. Meanwhile it is interesting to note that no one will be able to cry scandal if the outcome of the first round is belied by the second. Only three weeks ago MendesFrance was able to say that if the left won a majority of votes in the first round and lost the election in terms of seats in the second, then 'chaos' would intervene. Now exactly the opposite has happened and the result is a terrific moral blow to the left and yet a further blow to Mendes-France's reputation as a prophet. A further moral blow to the left is the question posed by Monday's agreement: either the quarrel between socialists and communists was a farcical piece of stage play, or it was real?
If it was real, then obviously the ultimate confrontation between the two parties has been postponed rather than averted. In either case their claim to be able to provide an alternative government takes on more and more the aspect of a gigantic confidence trick. We now come back to Mitterrand. The left, as we all know, is in every country the would-be moral conscience of the nation. In that sense Mitterrand is the embodiment of the moral conscience of the French left. In that case I hate to think what the state of his conscience must be at the moment as he takes a desperate gamble with the future of a great.nation in the company of men whom he despises, against men whose civilised values he fully shares. Whatever the outcome of the elections, Mitterrand's personal gamble that he could bring the communists to heel has failed.
Previous page
