BOOKS.

PROFESSOR RICKARDS ON POPULATION AND CAPITAL..

Or these ten lectures by the Oxford Professor of Political Economy nine are devoted to Population ; the object of the lecturer being to disprove the theory of Malthus, "that population has a constant tendency to increase beyond the means of subsistence." His first argument is scholastic. The word "tendency," he says, as re- gards population, is used in a possible or abstract sense, meaning the result that would ensue if no impediments were placed in the way ; while as applied to the increase of subsistence, the actually attainable in practice is spoken of. The second argument is founded on analogy and observation. We find the principle of fecundity throughout the whole animal creation everywhere vigorous, every- where regulated with the nicest exactness, to proportion the num- bers to their position in the scale of creation. If we look to do- mestic animals serving for the food of man, we find domesticity increases their fecundity. The increase of vegetable productions proceedi sometimes] in a still more rapid ratio than that of do- mestic animals : all are vastly superior in fecundity to man, who is among the slowest of animals in reproducing his species. An historical survey rapidly touches upon the wars, pestilences, and famines, which have desolated Europe since the fall of the Roman Empire ; and reviews the progress of mankind, which the lecturer truly declares to be very considerable. He discusses at length such industrial topics as the increased returns to labour that spring from agricultural improvements, the use of machinery, increased skill in the labourers, facilitated locomotion, and the means which a large population, and only a large population, furnish to execute certain large undertakings, or bring each particular craft to a high state of perfection.. iodern statistics are adduced to aid this line of reasoning, and are used to show the great increase of wealth and commodities, and the superior condition of a popula- tion which has increased in a greater ratio than at any, other period of the world's history. Finally, Professor Rickards lands in the conclusion, that so far from population pressing. upon subsist- ence, the fact is the other way, subsistence increasing faster than people. Exceptions arising from impolitic stimulus and evil insti- tutions are of course allowed,—as the case of Ireland. There are also other arguments ; but as they belong rather to theology than political economy, they need not be noticed here, especially as they are not of a leading or very conclusive kind. There has been much talk of "exact science" in connexion with political economy; and most of the economists since Adam Smith have been too prone to put forth a pure priTiciple as if it were a mathematical trutfi ; whereas it never actually exists in nature save in connexion with other principles, which modify it more or less, and may sometimes all but suspend its action. The Ricardo theory of agricultural rent is an example. Such rent perhaps never exists, or if it does it cannot be detected : the principle of diminishing returns to industry, on which it is founded, may be .modified by innumerable improvements ; but we believe it domi- nates in the long run, and is a main cause of the decline of na- tions. Malthus did not belong to this rigid school ; nor do we think he is chargeable with scholastic error in the statement of his peculiar principle. He might, and in the outset certainly did, as he himself admits, overstate his case in the illustrations and argu- ments, as well az in the urgency of manner. Extreme statement does not, however, destroy the truth of a principle, though it may exaggerate effects. We believe the law of population to which Malthus first directed a systematic attention to be founded in truth : indeed, the refutation attempted in these lectures does not shake if it does not confirm the law.

Professor Rickards's argument from analogy supports the Mal- thusian doctrine of checks. The fecundity of animals is reduced by animal war. The vast and wonderful shoal of herrings is ac- companied by shoals of enemies, which unceasingly prey upon it. If by accident they did not sufficiently thin the numbers, want of food, the famine and Pestilence of Malthus, would reduce the fishy ranks till they ceased to press against the means of sub- sistence. The notion of Sadler, introduced with too much defer- ence—that wild animals are a Providential provision—is for the purpose of large argument quite untrue. Everybody knows that they diminish in numbers, or forsake their haunts, as population and cultivation increase, till they become extinct, if they cannot emigrate or change their grounds. In speaking of the fecundity of the lesser domestic animals—as swine and rabbits—the lecturer overlooks the fact that they are only maintained from the earth, that is from vegetables; and though part may be refuse, animal food is altogether more expensive, will support a less number than vegetable food,—if it were desirable, which it obviously is

• Population and Capital; being a Course of Lectures delivered before the Uni- yersity of Oxford, in 1853-'54. By George B.. Rickards, ILA., Paliessor of Political Economy. Published by Longman and Co. • tf' '

not, that people should live upon the cheapest nourishment. The power of increase in vegetables is very slightly touched upon by Mr. Rickards ; though their practical increase in different countries under different modes of agriculture would be a very interesting subject. When, however, he adduces an experiment with a single grain tried by a botanist in the Botanical Garden at Cambridge, to prove the fecundity of wlfeat, he falls into a greater logical error than he charges upon Malthus. In deducing his law of the pos- sible increase of mankind, Malthus did not take a particular family under particular circumstances, but the whole of the United States. The historical argument is the reverse of conclusive. That the condition of the mass of men has advanced since the fall of the Roman Empire is true, and it is a hopeful truth ; but it has been after a fearful struggle. Modern experiencashows that pestilence and famine may be greatly controlled ; an hough the devasta- tions in the middle ages from those causes may not be wholly chargeable upon insufficient food, that was a principal cause. Mr. Rickards properly and very well points attention to the fact that war destroys capital as well as people. Still, it spreads knowledge, and readiness of hand—often excites energy. Upon the whole, it may be affirmed that after most of the historical devastations from war, famine, or disease, society could take a new start, with all its previous advantages of industrial means, and more elbow-room- a wider field for industry. In our immediate day, Ireland, whe- ther an exceptional case or not, is a striking example of popula- tion unduly pressing against subsistence, and of the fearful check which Nature in such cases brings into play. The economical arguments derived from the fact of increasing supplies in return to scientific, social, and industrial improve- ments, are cheering, but do little more than meet a qualification of Malthus himself. Very cheerful-looking are the statistics as regards England.

"Mr. Malthus, and the disciples of his school, unite in representing the supposed pressure of population against food as increasing in intensity in di- rect proportion to the populousness of a community. Let us, therefore, ex- amine the circumstances of that country in which the inhabitants are crowded most closely together upon its surface—and that is our own. Ac- cording to the estimate of Humboldt, the proportions of inhabitants to the square league in several of the principal divisions of the World are as follows :

United States 58 Holland 1330 Russia in Europe 345 Germany 1432 Spain 763 France and Corsica 1790 British India 810 Italy 1967 China 1172 British Islands 2120 England 2524

"England, therefore, is the country in which, according to the theory in question, the pressure of over-population ought to be most severe.

"In contradiction to this hypothesis, however, the most authentic reports respecting the progress of population and production in Great Britain es- tablish these facts. During the first half of the present century, the popu- lation has very nearly doubled itself, having increased from 10,917,433 in 1801 to 21,721,967, according to the census of 1851. Yet, notwithstanding this rapid increase of numbers, the aggregate of produce raised from the soil has increased in a still greater ratio than the population. Direct evidence of the actual quantity of home produce, unfortunately, does not exist; but a tolerable estimate of it may be formed from various authentic data.

"In the first place, it is evident that if the population has been doubled, the means of subsistence must have been doubled also ; unless it be the fact either that the condition of the people in respect to subsistence has dete- riorated, or that subsistence has been increased by importation from abroad. Now, it may be confidently stated that the people of Great Britain are not worse but better fed than they were fed fifty years ago. The quality of their food has improved. The use of wheaten bread has become almost uni- versal ; whereas, in the earlier period, oats and rye were largely consumed. They enjoy also n greater abundance, as well as a better quality of food, to say nothing of other accommodations. Mr. M'Culloch, in his 'Statistics of the British Empire,' says—' There can be no manner of doubt that, speaking generally, the bulk of the population consume at this moment more corn, and particularly wheat, than at any former period . . . . fully ten times more wheat is consumed at present in Scotland than in 1790.' With regard to foreign grain, the importation of it previously to the last ten years was quite inconsiderable. Since 1841 it has been larger, partly by reason of deficient harvests. But Mr. Porter, in his valuable work "The Progress of the Nation,' gives a calculation in which full allowance is made for the pro- portion of the population to which the consumption of the imported corn may be assigned. The result is this: assuming eight bushels of wheat to be the annual consumption for each person, in the years 1801 to 1810, inclusive, the average number of persons fed on home-grown wheat was 11,169,779. Forty years later—viz. from 1841 to 1849—the number was 17,004,118. Mr. Porter estimates that the consumption of wheat, and of other articles of home produce, has increased in at least an equal proportion. My own per- suasion is, that his estimate is extremely moderate, and probably within the mark."

This argument from statistics is pursued much further in the book. Except that Malthus never meant to put forward the pro- position that the more people in a given space the less proportionate

food, without reference to industry or circumstances, the argument is pursued fairly and skilfully; though a good deal of it rather relates to wealth, which may be in few hands, than to the general wellbeing of the people. Individual observation—which, however,

is limited—and class complaints—which may be exaggerated, or partake of that disposition to embellish the past that seems in- herent in the human mind—represent the lowest class as having declined in circumstances. The dirty and desolate population of

towns are said to be more numerous, the labouring peasantry to suffer more privation than in the last century. It would probably be found, if the facts could be ascertained, that the great improve- ment in wellbeing has taken place in the classes above the very poor; in the large increase of the middle order, and in that class of men which the great and even gigantic undertakings of this century have called into being, as managers, foremen, and superior mechanics, earning incomes rather than wages ; together with ar- tisans and other skilled labourers. And this improvement has been greatly caused, as it can only be maintained, by prudence in forming matrimonial connexions.

In fact, to that conclusion Mr. Rickards himself come,g at last. Having exhausted the subjects we have touched upon, and en- deavoured to remove the " evil" which many assert the Malthu- sian theory has charged upon Providence, (though the lecturer rather shifts it,) he thus sums up.

"The increasing proportion of skilled to rude labour, which marks an sera of progress and invention, tends in many ways to elevate the labouring po- pulation in the social scale. Mr. Malthus has, expressed an opinion to the effect, that the best-grounded expectations of increased social happiness are founded on the prospect of an increase in the relative numbers of the middle classes. He ventures to anticipate, as I have done, that in the progress of civilization, the proportionate number of persons employed in severe manual toil will be diminished, while that of the middle classes will increase. Now, in proportion as this result is attained, the recklessness that arises from hopeless indigence, and the improvident habits which belong to a low state of civilization, will disappear ; and the same social motives which influence persons of superior rankaind keep down their numbers to the limit imposed by their conventional wilffts and the opinions of their class, will reach lower downwards, and penetrate the mass of the community. If by any means the lower classes can be advanced to that point at which economy and forethought, the sense and hope of progress, a regard for comfort and creditable appear- ances, a taste for order, neatness, and the simpler luxuries if life, become operative motives upon their conduct, the best possible securities against thriftless marriages and redundant pauperism will be given to society.

"By what means, then, are such ideas and habits to be infused ? By no artificial regimen or direct acts of legislation ; but by leaving full freedom to the operations of industry, and allowing those impulses and desires which Providence has implanted in the breast of man to have their natural scope and sway ; by free institutions ; by laws which protect the rights both of labour and of property ; by a social system which, as in our own country, opposes no barrier to energy and perseverance, but makes the rewards and honours of the state accessible to the talents and virtues of the humblest citizen. Only leave open the roads to wealth and advancement, and industry will make its own way and achieve its own reward. But this it can never do without some portion of moral energy—without the power to make the sacrifice of immediate gratifications, and to subject the lower appetites to the restraints of reason and self-control.

"It will be said, perhaps, after all, we are falling back on the old doctrine of 'moral restraint ' ; notwithstanding all the objections levelled against Malthus, his favourite panacea forms the burden of our conclusions. My views have been much misunderstood if I have been supposed throughout these lectures to call in question the advantage, nay, the absolute necessity, of moral restraint, for maintaining the balance of numbers to subsistence in a progressive state of society. No man, surely, who knows what the phy- sical power of human fecundity is, can doubt for a moment that a restraint upon its extreme action must be placed somewhere, or suffering must ensue. The redundancy of life must be checked either at one end or at the other. Either a preventive or a repressive agency must be employed. Either life must be cut short and population thinned by physical evils, or the influx of human beings must be arrested at the source. If the ratio of the deaths be diminished, the number of the births must, =tens paribus, be reduced."

We of this age are standing upon a "bank and shoal of time" when the trial of the great question really involved in the theory of Malthus is beginning. America is the only country that ever started with the power of fairly ascertaining whether the mass of mankind could attain to comfort and competence. The advantages of freedom, accumulated skill in arts and in- dustry, and a boundless field of employment, do not seem to have enabled even America to have satisfactorily answered this question. Occasional glimpses from travellers and native writers show poverty to exist even in the agricultural settlements ; misfortune, improvidence, idleness, and ignorance, have pro- duced in some of the larger towns a class of Pariahs no better than those of Europe, though not so numerous. A score or two of years, which are as nothing in the life of a continent, may show obvious poverty, or something like it, in that vast region ; and if it

once begin, it will increase. The gold-discoveries, the effects of free trade and emigration, have in this country placed the artisan and labourer in a more favourable position than they have ever been placed in before, in Europe, permanent- ly to advance their condition. Prudence in expenditure, which is within their power—domestic education, which is not —are both great means to this end. The "moral restraint" of Malthus is still greater. It is true that mere precept never restrained anybody. No particular robbery was ever stopped by "Thou shalt not steal." For a generation after the publication of Malthus, perhaps even yet, not a single marriage has been prevented or even postponed by the "Principles of Population." But when a theory is widely received as a general truth, and forms a portion of what is called "opinion," it begins to influence the actions of men. Till this theory of Malthus, to some degree and with what- ever modifications, be received among the poorer classes, it is to be feared there is little prospect of a permanent improvement of their condition. So far from the " moral restraint" involving immo- rality, we believe that those who contract an engagement but post- pone marriage till they can prudently marry are generally among the most respectable of their class.

The literary merit of this volume is considerable. The facts and illustrations have been thoughtfully and carefully selected ; the case is ably and fairly argued ; the matter full, close, and well arranged; the style clear, scholarly, and not wanting in a species of warmth, which attracts the reader. In the preface, Mr. Rickards modestly waives all claim to originality; and the lecture on Capital is elementary enough, and in its matter almost trite. The facts relating to population are drawn from wide and various authorities, though few are of a recondite nature ; but the object of the application, and the skill with which the application is made, give to the lectures an air of freshness if not of novelty.