Bonn chance Raymond Keene
The world chess championship is now underway in Bonn, with the first game having taken place on 14 October, too late for inclusion in this article. What are the respective chances of the two grandmasters, the reigning and former champions, who will be fighting for the crown over the next few weeks?
Kramnik has a special place in chess history, as a result of defeating Kasparov at their match in London eight years ago. That probably ranks as the highest rating performance in any world championship match ever staged. Since then, Kramnik has retained his title by drawing against Leko in 2004. Meanwhile, the reunification match against Topalov in 2006 ended with a clear Kramnik victory, the match only seeming at all close due to a Kramnik default on principle over unfounded allegations of cheating from his rival’s camp.
Nevertheless, although on occasion an impressive performer in tournaments, this was not Kramnik’s forte, and in 2007 he lost out to Anand in the World Championship tournament in Mexico. Traditionally the World Championship is decided by a match, and the crowds flock to see the tragic heroes, not the chorus. Anand doubtless considers himself the legitimate world champion, as the winner of the Mexico tournament, while Kramnik may well believe that the hallowed match title is on loan to a usurper. Suffice it to say that, commencing with Bonn, Fidé, the World Chess Federation, appears to be steering a sensible future course towards the reinstatement of matches — mano a mano — as the primary mode for deciding the championship.
Anand leads Kramnik in the latest rankings, and he possesses a quick, fluent and easy style which does not place a great strain on his reserves of energy. On the other hand, Kramnik is ahead by six games to four over their lifetime of rated games against each other. What is worse, the Russian has won four of their last five encounters in classical chess. Even more ominously for the Indian champion, twice declared Sportsman of the Year in his home country, was his disastrous score in the Bilbao super-tournament held in Spain in September. Anand came last, on his own, without winning a single game. This was an unparalleled setback for a world champion — no previous holder of that title has ever suffered such a humiliating setback.
This notwithstanding, Anand’s powers of recuperation are considerable and his chances in Bonn certainly cannot be written off. After due consideration, I feel that Kramnik will be favourite to win if he can clinch matters by Game 12. After that, should scores be level, rapid-play games take precedence, an area in which the quick-witted Anand is likely to be more effective. May the better man win!
For those interested in the technical parameters of the contest, games commence at 2 p.m. (UK time) with a continuing programme of two games over three days. However, after Game 11 there will be an additional free day. The so-called ‘Classical’ time control in operation is 120 minutes for the first 40 moves of each game, followed by 60 minutes for the next 20 moves, then 15 minutes for the remainder of the game, with an increment of 30 seconds per move from move 61. This final ‘time-counting clause has been imported from the Japanese version of chess, Shogi, where it is known as ‘Bayomi’. It is designed to maintain an element of time constraint for moves, whilst seeking to eliminate the aleatory nature of a time forfeit caused by perpetually dwindling time reserves at the end of the game.
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