FINANCE - PUBLIC AND PRIVATE
HE COST OF THE COAL STOPPAGE
BY ARTHUR W. KIDDY.
'NDER this title the current number of the Westminster ank Review has an interesting article in which an tternpt is made to calculate the cost to the country of he prolonged coal stoppage. This problem of calculating the losses arising out of prolonged industrial dispute is, however, becoming linost as difficult as estimating the costs of a war. s regards the costs of the coal stoppage.we have certainly ot yet reached the stage when, as was the case in 1918, he figures of expenditure resemble astronomical calcula- tons, but the cost, even on the most conservative estimate, sufficiently stupendous. Moreover, I believe that to 11 the calculations which have yet been made with egard to the matter, there is yet another item in the atalogue, which if it were added would reach an appall- I total. I mean the loss to the economic strength of ie nation which has for years been represented by the ailure of workers to put out their full measure of strength ad to give an adequate return for the wages received. 'ot, of course, that this shortage of effort applies to all etions of workers, because, as is usually the case, we and a certain section of the community working even lore strenuously than usual to make good the defects in ther quarters.
SOME .INTERESTING ESTIMATES.
In the article in the Wedminster. Bank Review to bleb I. have referred there is certainly ,no' disposition to xaggerate the imisition, the tendency being rather to nder- than to overestimate the losses. After quoting he authority of Sir Hugh Bell, who has placed the ossible loss arising out of the coal stoppage at £8,000,000 day, giving a total of nearly £290,000,000 to the end f August, and the estimate of the Board. of Trade of 150,000,000 for the first three months of the stoppage, id Mr. Runciman estimate—of -k148,500,-000 as the iossible loss up to July 21st last, the Westminster Bank eview, proceeding on a different basis of calculation, stimated the possible cost at round about £200,000,000. nine interesting statistics are also furnished showing he directions, in which theie losses have fallen with pedal severity, the chief, of course, being the coal industry itself, the iron and steel trades, and the railway companies.
FALL IN FOREIGN TRADE.
With all deference', However, to the Westminster ank's calculations, I must confess that I am more nclined to support the figures cited by Sir Hugh Bell who, I imagine, takes into his calculations the loss of markets and the many advantages gained by competing nations, to say nothing of the further loss which must still arise even- after' the- coal dispute is settled before we can get into our industrial stride once again.' We know that up to date the railway. companies now show a-loss of revenue of over £20,000,000 ; that the National Revenue has declined by about £27,000,000 as compared with a hoped-for expansion for the entire year of over £12,000,000 ; that the turnover of foreign trade for the past eight months shows a shrinkage compared with the same period of last year of no less than 1160,000,000 ; while the Westminster Bank Review estimates that the losses in the heavy iron and steel trades alone probably exceed £18,000,000. Of course, I am not suggesting that these fignres can be added up to produce a sum expressing the cost of the coal stoppage, because, in a sense, they overlap. In another sense, however, I suggest that so far from overlapping, they are cumulative in their effect and affect the situation at so many different points as to Intensify the net total loss. -
WHY THE COST SHOULD BE REALIZED.
I suggest that there are at least two reasons why it is well to emphasize the lois- to the country involved by the coal stoppage. The first reason is that there are circumstances which tend to obscure for a time the ill- effeets...9..Lthis latest industrial trade dispute. One circumstance is to be found in the huge sums disbursed for unemployment relief, so that the full effect of the physical distress which might be. expected to follow a four-months' cOal stoppage is, to-a large'exte-ht; Mitigated, though the -uninterrupted import of foodstuffs from abroad, with a landslide in the matter of our exports tends, of course, greatly to weaken the economic position of the country as a whole. Another circumstance tending to obscure some of_the effects of our unfavourable: eco- nomic .position .resulting from the coal stoppage is the amount of credit reposed by foreign nations in London as a financial centre. Since our return to the Gold Standard last year the credit of the London Money Market has increased enormously, and as a consequence foreign nations have employed spare balances in this country, with the result that the position of the sterling exchange has been well maintained. But for -that fact, there is little doubt that the great visible adverse trade balance for the first eight months of this year of £274,000,000 would have made itself felt upon the sterling exchange, even after making all allowance for the power Of invisible exports.
NATURE OF THE SETTLEMENT.
A still more important and practical reason for con- sidering the cost of the coal stoppage is one which was foremost in most people's minds. during the great War. During the second, third and fourth years of that gigantic struggle, when the costs of the conflict staggered the imagination one fact was constantly recognized,- namely, that the full measure of the cost mustdepend very largely upon the outcome of the War, the idea being that victory for the Allies, follOwed by enduring peace, might do much to stimulate a rapid recuperation. For in those days we dreamed dreams of an intensive effort in industry in this' country, when peace returned ! And so, not to presd; the parallel too closely, the cost of this latest industrial dispute in England will finally be determined by the manner of its conclusion. The dispute has, among othei things, revealed very clearly, grave defecis in many directions, defects, possibly in coal-mining organization, and certainly defects in the regulations and organization responsible for individual effort on the part of workers. It has also been clearly shown how dear coal and restricted output has for years prejudiced all our other industries, and especially our great key industries, while the search- light has gone farther and has-shown that the restrictive policy among Trade Unions-in the matter of output is adversely affecting the whole industrial_ life in England, just as; I believe; it- is also adversely affecting the moral fibre of the workers themselves.
If, therefore, we are to recover the losses involved in a four months' coal stOPpage, it will only be if these defects are effectively remedied. The problems involved in the present industrial upheaval go much deeper than the mere dispute between coal-owners and the miners.,
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