THE OUTLOOK FOR BONN
LL things considered, there is not much to regret in the A result of the West German elections. And there is at least one ground for considerable satisfaction—the number of electors who went to the poll. The fact that over 78 per cent. should have taken the trouble to record their votes (a higher percentage than was reached in the election in this country in 1945) in spite of the various counter-attractions of a fine August Sunday is clear proof that political indifference is not among the problems Germany has to face. She has many others, and the institution of a responsible government will create as many as it will solve. That, however, can wait for the moment. The imme- diate question is of the character and the capacity of the men likely to be entrusted with the solution. Who they will be has yet to be announced. The first West German Government must take the form of a coalition, for no party has secured a clear majority of the seats, 402, in the Diet. But the situation is in the hands of the Christian Socialists, whose 139 seats give them only a small numerical superiority over the Social Democrats, with 131, but who enjoy the great advantage of being able to find allies in other more or less like-minded parties, notably the Free Democrats (with 52 seats), whereas the Socialists can find none. The coalition may be completed by the inclusion of the German Party, with 17 seats, or the Bavarian Party, with the same number, and on many issues it would be likely to com- mand the support of the strongly Catholic Centre Party, which, a shadow of its old self, has secured to seats in the Bundestag. Though details still remain to be settled, Dr. Adenauer, as leader of the Christian Democrats, should have no difficulty in forming a cohesive administration with a large measure of solid public support behind it.
It will be a government of the Right, which need not mean, and must not be taken as meaning, of reactionaries. The Christian Democrats will have to seek some help from smaller parties to the Right of themselves, but broadly speaking, and with many necessary differences, the majority in the Diet will resemble British Conservatism and the minority British Labour, with one or two extreme Right parties left floating and unattached. Some anxiety has been expressed at the size of the vote cast for nationalist groups like Herr Loritz's Economic Reconstruction Union, but their total poll is not in fact formidable, and there is something to be said for the view that it is better to have persons of this kidney sailing openly under their true colours than infiltrating into other parties and making trouble there. The setback to the Communists, who won not a single seat by direct vote, and got 15 (out of 402) under the proportional representation arrangement, is encouraging if not surprising ; on a free secret ballot Communism is a doomed cause everywhere. Altogether the first stretch of the road towards the establishment of democratic Parliamentary government in post-war Germany (or the second stage, if the drafting of the Bonn constitution is to be counted as the first) has been covered satisfactorily. There were various clear issues before the electors, and the electors have pronounced on them. The advocates of a free economy, notably Dr. Erhard, have triumphed over the planners of whom the whole Social Democratic Party is composed. The federalists, who would leave the Lander considerable rights, have defeated the centralisers. And the Roman Catholic Church would no doubt claim, with some justice, that the election results vindicate its influence and authority. That claim, however, must not be pushed too far. The Christian Democratic Union includes Protestants as well as Catholics, and in some districts the Protes- tants predominate. But the anti-religious, not merely anti-clerical, tone of much of the Marxist propaganda threw the Churches necessarily on the defensive, and they have defended themselves with some success, as the Socialist failure in the Ruhr particularly indicates.
One considerable advantage the new Bundestag will have— the existence of a strong, competent and critical opposition. A coalition between C.D.U. and Socialists is out of the question after the asperities of the election campaign, and Dr. Schumacher has declared categorically that he would never serve in a Cabinet with an apostle of free economy like Dr. Erhard. The fact that the Socialists will be in solid opposition gives Germany some- thing like the two-party system which most people in Britain believe to be best for Britain. It does not follow, of course, that it is necessarily good for Germany ; but it is certainly good for Germany that the experiment should be made. It could not succeed worse than the score or so of splinter parties, com- promising and huckstering and manoeuvring for position in the pre-Hitler Weimar days, and it will almost certainly succeed a great deal better. But it is imperative that the difficulties that will face any German Government, and the part this country can play in alleviating or aggravating them, should be clearly recog- nised. Germany is entering on an intensely critical phase of her post-war history. A nominally independent government, with its independence in fact strictly limited by the Occupation Statute and the presence of armies of occupation, is being set up. There are obvious opportunities for constant friction and the renascence of a defiant and aggressive nationalism. Masses of Germans still refuse to accept national responsibility for the war ; any glimmer of recognition of the sums the Allies expended in feeding Germany after the armistice or defeating the Berlin blockade by the airlift is totally lacking. The anti-British cam- paign waged by both party leaders, Dr. Adenauer and Dr. Schumacher, during the election campaign was an outrage. Though it can in some measure be explained, it can be in no measure condoned.
But the election is over, and a Parliamentary epoch opens. If the new German Ministers are prepared to act as statesmen no one here will throw up at them the language they chose to descend to as party leaders. The Foreign Secretary has already welcomed in advance the emergence of a democratic (it is to be hoped there is no foundation for the suggestion that what he really meant was a Social Democratic) Germany, aligning herself from conviction as well as self-interest with the democratic States of Western Europe. Economically Western Germany will, like those States, reap the benefits of Marshall Aid. As to her political associations some- thing more may be said at Strasbourg before the European Assem- bly ends ; meanwhile Mr. Joseph McCloy, the American High Commissioner, was well within the mark when he said on Tuesday that the admission of Germany to the Assembly was highly desirable if the Germans wished it. But one obstacle to Anglo- German understanding must be removed forthwith if any progress towards the integration of Germany in Western Europe is to be hoped for. The depth and the genuineness of German feeling on the dismantling of Rhineland factories may not be adequately appreciated in Whitehall. If not it is full time it was. The part that grievance played in the election cannot be dismissed as mere party tactics. It is, and will continue to be, far more than that. Dr. Schumacher predicted that whatever Government took office at Bonn its first act would be to carry—and it would carry unanimously—a resolution solemnly protesting at the continuance of dismantling four years and more after the end of the war. There is every likelihood that that will happen, and the protest will be directed primarily against this country, partly because the factories concerned lie almost wholly within the British Zone, partly because the Americans are known to dislike dismantling, partly because Mr. Bevin has been the principal defender of the execution of the policy. It is true that not many factories are involved, but there are quite enough to constitute political provocation, though not enough to constitute a military factor of any substantial im- portance one way or another. Merely to proclaim a refusal to yield to German clamour indicates an obduracy which declines to balance pros and cons. There may be some ground for dis- mantling the factories ; it may be of some value as a military safeguard—though if military safeguards are needed it is to be hoped the Allies possess some more effective than this. But the possible advantage is as nothing compared with the political effect of the inexorable execution of the dismantling plans. It is not too late to retrieve the situation and enable the new Government to start its work free from the dangermis embarrassment a nationalist anti-dismantling campaign must cause it. Estrangement between Germany and Britain at this stage is a grave matter. As Mr. Churchill said at Strasbourg on Wednesday, this may be the vital year. It is imperative that British Ministers should treat it as though it were.
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