THE ANGLO-EGYPTIAN TREATY AND AFTER

Commonwealth and Foreign

FROM A SPECIAL- CORRESPONDENT

THERE is no doubt about the present popularity of the Anglo-Egyptian Treaty with the Egyptian people. Sir Miles Lampson's car is greeted wherever it is seen with respectful enthusiasm, British troops are received with cheers in the streets and even a majority of the students, always a peculiarly combustible element in the life of Cairo, - are in favour of the settlement and congratulate themselves that it was their rioting last year that contributed power- fully to its successful negotiation.

Nor is there any sign that tt: iugh the British repre- sentative is no longer the Reside but the Ambassador, his influence on the Egyptian situation has diminished. All the old signs of British power have of course gone. The Union Jack no longer flies over the Citadel, the British sentries have been withdrawn from the Residency, and Sir Miles Lampson's car is no longer preceded by outriders -and flanked by an escort. For all that the Embassy is in close touch with the Egyptian ministers and Nahas Pasha, the Prime Minister, is known to be constantly seeking the advice of Sir Miles Lampson.

But, in spite of the honeymoon atmosphere with which the new regime has opened, there are some formidable rocks ahead. There is the threat to the position of Nahas Pasha. For the moment he enjoys immense prestige. In addition to being the national leader nominated by the great Zaghlul himself he has negotiated a treaty against which not a voice was raised in Egypt. His party, the Wafd, command more than 90 per cent. of the votes. But how long will this last ?

The Wafd has made lavish promises of social reform. The speech from the throne which outlined them took an hour and a half to read. Whence is the money coming for a People's budget ? The whole revenue of Egypt is little more than £30 millions. Out of that a substantial pro- portion will now have to be voted for the reorganisation of the Egyptian army. The idea of an efficient army appeals powerfully to national sentiment, but no assessment has yet been made of its cost. Clearly, if they are to be of any practical use, the armed forces must be mechanised, but the expenditure required would swallow up the greater part of the existing revenue. Extravagant hopes are entertained of what it will be possible to squeeze out of the foreigner in indirect taxation. He is already highly taxed. In any me with the departure of the army to the Canal there will be a substantial diminution in the number of foreigners and a consequent decline in the revenue.

Then the bill will have to be met for the rehousing of the troops in the Canal area. The cost has been estimated at Lio,000,000, to be spread over eight years. That will mean a severe slice out of the annual revenue.

In the circumstances there is bound to be a reaction against the Wafd. It is questionable whether they have the strength to meet it. The party of the petty, bourgeoisie, they have little administrative ability in their ranks. Their brief experience of office in 1929 has left behind it little confidence in their executive efficiency.

Always confronting them, as it would any Government in power, is the menace of a student rising. The students remain the most disturbing element in Egypt today. Half- educated, arrogant, convinced that they have succeeded in bullying the politicians into negotiating the Treaty, they will be ready at any moment to exploit a rising popular discontent against the Government. What would satisfy them, of course, would be jobs, but that is what the Government will Cairo.

be unable to provide. For the students' only idea of respect- able employment is a post in the Government service, and there are far too many civil servants already. When I paid my first visit to a Government department I imagined from the vast concourse of men in the lobbies and corridors that some great petition was in process of being presented. But I discovered on enquiry that all that I had seen was merely the normal personnel of the office. We have already seen the danger of a bourgeois unemployed in India. It is likely to be accentuated in Egypt, particularly now that there is no British Resident upon whom the students can put the blame for all the ills of their country.

At the same time one of the bulwarks of public order— the effective control and disciplining of the police force—is likely to be imperilled. Up to now the police force has been officered in the higher ranks by the British. Presumably British officers will now be regarded as an affront to indepen- dence, and there may well be no new recruitment.

There is the grave possibility, therefore, if the existing Government loses its hold on the popular imagination, of serious disorder. In such circumstances the Government will be unable to take refuge in resignation, for in existing circum- stances there is no alternative administration.

The real danger will be a Dictatorship. Any man who has the ear of the King at the moment may be able to persuade him to dispense with Parliament and attempt personal rule either by himself or through the agency of another. The King only attains his majority in August. Even then he will be not more than eighteen years of age, and therefore not in a position to foster infant Parliamentary institutions. The young King has not yet given evidence of any great capacity. An English tutor has been imported to complete the King's education, but, if rumour is correct, his efforts are rigidly confined to an hour or two a week.

But all these are not immediate dangers. The existing Government is likely to continue without serious challenge for at least a year and perhaps two years. Whether a serious rupture is avoided ultimately depends very largely on the personality of the British Ambassador and his capacity to influence the situation in the direction of progress and stability. Happily, in Sir Miles Lampson the Foreign Office has found the ideal man fur the post. His appearance alone is an asset, for he is immensely tall, and has that general air of distinction which attracts attention wherever he goes. No one on the race-course, at the theatre, at any public gathering could doubt who was the British Ambassador. Sir Miles is further endowed with great geniality and radiates among every class in Cairo a most attractive spirit of camaraderie. He believes whole-heartedly in the Treaty, and is determined by doing everything in his power to smooth away diffi- culties and generally keep the atmosphere sweet, to make it a success.

The situation is further helped by the fact that there is no Die-hard party in Egypt. The British commercial com- munity accepts the Treaty as an accomplished fact, and the Military experts, too, are convinced that from the point of view of defence they have been given everything that they require.

The general atmosphere at the moment, both on the Egyptian and the British side, is one of confidence and optimism, but so far as the future is concerned I think it would be a bold man who would say that with the Treaty every difficulty and danger in Anglo-Egypilan relations has been removed.