TOPICS OF THE DAY.
THE MEETING OF PART.TATIFINT TO those who are satisfied with the formula that "the greatest of all British interests is peace," the meeting of Parliament will probably give at least partial and tem- porary satisfaction. It is true that there is in the Queen's Speech a carefully toned-down threat, which represents probably the "irreducible minimum" of Lord Beacons- field's declamatory policy. But the more reasonable of Lord Beaconsfield's colleagues have engrafted so many qualifications on that threat, that it now rather reminds one of a rifle from which the cartridge has been withdrawn. "I cannot conceal from myself that should hostilities be unfortunately prolonged, some unexpected occurrence may render it incum- bent on me to adopt measures of precaution," is certainly a menace reduced to its lowest terms. Even if both the contingen- cies on which this menace is made conditional, happen, even if the hostilities are "unfortunately prolonged" and the "unexpected" occurrence occurs,—of course an improbable event, in the opinion of her Majesty's Ministers, or it would be expected rather than unexpected,—even then, all that " may " be in- cumbent on the Queen is to adopt "measures of precaution." This is rather like the threat of the stern mother who said to the schoolmaster who was about to correct her son, "Give him a good hard pat, doctor." The Ministers tell us they expect no danger, but that if the danger comes, it will be incumbent on them, in that desperate case, to adopt "measures of precaution." A flat threat un- doubtedly. And the debates in Parliament reproduce ',the impression of this fangless mimicry of the bull-dog's bite. Lord Beaconsfield made a great effort to impress on his hearers that the hour may be coming when England, in haughty isolation, would maintain, alone and undismayed, a grand contest against some destructive Titan, whose ambition threatens "the peace of the world with a predominance fatal to public liberty and national independence,"—and no doubt Lord Beaconsfield furnished to the Queen's Speech the rough draft of the threat from which his colleagues, by the aid of adjec- tives and conjunctions and subjunctive moods, have contrived to extract all the force. But then Lord Beaconsfield was neutralised in Parliament, as his efforts had been neutralised in the Queen's Speech. Lord Salisbury reiterated and emphasised the Duke of Argyll's remark that this country had never enumerated "the independence and in- tegrity of the Ottoman Empire" among "British interests," and took credit to the Government for having refused to include it amongst them. He added a tribute to the Emperor Alexander's "sincere, anxious, almost tormenting desire for peace," which was as impressive in the House of Lords as it was no doubt intended to be in the Court of the Czar. Again, Sir Stafford Northcote declared positively, and was pinned to his declaration by Mr. Gladstone, that the additional money- vote would not be asked for, even" as a measure of precaution," until the answer had been received from St. Petersburg to our questions respecting the terms of peace. All this shows that Lord Beaconsfield's irreducible minimum of threat is not in itself of a nature to create lively alarm at the present moment, and that if he comes near entangling Great Britain in the war, it will not be, in all probability, till he has rid himself of colleagues to whom, much more than to himself, the confidence of the nation is really given. We repeat, then, that so far as those are concerned who can echo without any reserve Lord Derby's sentiment that "the greatest of all British interests is peace," the result of the opening of Parliament should be re- garded as, for the time at least, more explicitly satisfactory than a few days ago any one had reason to hope.
But for ourselves, we must admit that we are by no means completely reassured as to the issue. It is not that we fear greatly England's being dragged into the war. That would be a frightful evil, especially if she were dragged into it, as she could only be, on the wrong side. But when the fate of large tracts of both Europe and Asia are concerned, and of the millions of inhabitants by whom they are peopled, there are more weighty interests at stake than even the implica- tion of this country in a bloody and dangerous quarrel,—nay, even, it may be, than its implication on the wrong side. What we confess we see even more reason now to fear than so terrible a catastrophe,—and we yield to none in our dread of seeing the resources of England applied to the purpose of widening the area of conflict by our adhesion to an evil policy,—is the conclusion of a peace by which the bloody sacrifices of the present war may be partially or even in great part wasted, so far as the only end is concerned by which they could be justified. The Duke of Argyll in his truly magnificent speech gave expression to this fear, and we confess that it has for us far more reality than any dread that England herself will be called upon to fight, and to fight of course in an evil cause. As far as we can see, the danger of our being in- volved in the war is rapidly diminishing. Thanks to the sagacity of some of the Cabinet Ministers, of so many of the leaders of Opposition, and of the English people as a whole,—Lord. Beaconsfield will find some difficulty in getting his opportunity for cutting the thongs of the bladder in which the tempests of English passion are bound up. But there is but too much reason to fear a partial failure of the war to achieve the great ends which would alone justify it,—in short, the conclusion of a peace by which the results of this fearful and inevitable struggle should be more or less lost, and the war cut into two parts , of which. it might well be that the fiercer and the more disastrous would be postponed to the sequel. The reason we fear this is that, as Lord Granville says, peace is the interest of Russia no less than of the neutral Powers and of Turkey itself, and that it might be very possible to bring about now a peace by which Russia would gain plenty of glory, and by which, neverthe- less, no one of the great ends of the war in Europe would be finally and effectually secured. Take the case to which the Duke of Argyll alluded so powerfully in his speech on Thursday,—the case of Epirus and Thessaly. It is hardly conceivable that if a peace be patched up now, with England and Austria perhaps doing all in their power to leave whatever truncated Ottoman Empire might remain, as power- ful as might be, Thessaly and Epirus should be snatched from the desolation which Turkish rule has brought upon them. Greece, tardy and timid,—knowing only too- well how exposed is Athens to the fleet of her relentless foe,—has not moved, and has made no sacrifices in the matter. A hasty peace now would almost certainly mean,— we fear, quite inevitably mean,—the indefinite postponement of the legitimate aspirations of Greece, especially as Russia herself has no regard for Greece, and looks upon the Greeks as the future rivals of the Slays. The all but certain failure of the hopes of Greece is, then the first reason why we cannot look with any satisfaction to a hasty and patched-up peace in which the counsels of Austria, and of Lord Beacons- field's England, should have an influential voice.
Again, if such a peace be concluded now, we hold it to be all but certain that Russia would regard it,—and so far as mere diplomatic considerations are concerned, would rightly regard it, —as an essential point not to weaken Turkey too much,— to weaken her so far as to make her dependent on Russian influence, but not so far as to render her powerless for action under Russian influence. If that were so, we should have the revival of the old suzerainties in the provinces now for the first time liberated. Roumania, of course, and Montenegro and Servia, having shed their blood in the war, and contributed in no small degree to its results, must be rewarded by independence, but Bulgaria would too probably receive no better concession than to become an autonomous State, liable to Ottoman control and subject to an Ottoman tribute. Here would be a new seed of future troubles and wars, and of troubles and wars all the more certain and serious from the great proximity of Bulgaria to Constantinople.
Finally, as regards the vexed question of the Straits and the command of the entrance to the Black Sea, no real solution will ever be arrived at while Turkey remains there, though it be only to be manipulated by a stronger Power, instead of regulating the passage of the Straits in her own interest. What is needful for the good of Europe is that Constantinople should really be in independent hands, though not in the hands of any first-rate Power. That can never be the case while Turkey remains there, with the consciousness that she owes her existence to the forbearance of so great a Power as Russia. In short, the cry for immediate peace which the Queen's speech raises, and which every one almost but the Duke of Argyll appears to echo back, seems to us to be the great danger of the present moment, and far from the merely humane and beneficent cry it seems. If Lord Salis- bury's solemn announcement that Great Britain is not acting alone, and that if he could demand a secret Session of the House of Lords, he could communicate to them what would con- vince them that she is not so isolated, means as much as it seems to mean, we have great reason to fear that it betokens a power- ful influence at work for stopping the beneficent issues of this terrible war half-way, and throwing to the winds very large
portion of the happiest consequences which it might have pro- duced, and we trust, may yet produce. Great as have been the services of the Peace party in the Cabinet, there are few of them, we fear,—if we may judge by the Marquis of Salisbury's language,—who would not catch at any peace, however inadequate to the great end in view, rather than see the war prolonged for a single day. That is, we confess, the chief fear which the meeting of Parliament has brought home to us. We are thankful that the fear of England's being dragged into war on the wrong side is, for the moment at least, greatly diminished. We are thankful for the speeches of Lord Salisbury and Sir Stafford Northcote, and the promises they hold out of a true neutrality. We are thankful for the clear evidence of Lord Beaconsfield's want of ascendancy in his own Cabinet. But we should be more thankful far, if we could hope to see the policy of England guided by the noble and generous views of the Duke of Argyll :—and of that, as yet, there is no hope.
Previous page
