MR. BALFOUR ON ELECTORAL TENDENCIES.
ORDINARY political speakers, where they find cir- cumstances adverse to their party, are usually satis- fied with a recognition of this fact, and an exhortation to their hearers to manfully face and overcome it. In his speech at Haddington last Saturday, Mr. Balfour was not content with this, but sought to get behind the immediate appearances, to discover their historical explanation, and draw from it consolation and encouragement for his fol- lowers. His speech is an interesting example of the application of the historical method to the facts of party politics. Starting from a principle, which had been already enunciated by Lord Salisbury, that " wherever you find that the franchise has long been a popular fran- chise, there you will find the Unionist Party and the Conservative Party are especially strong," Mr. Balfour attributed the persistence of Scotch Liberalism to the fact that, before the first Reform Act, Scotland had no repre- sentation worthy of the name. In proportion as the ascendency of Toryism in the early years of this cen- tury was more complete in Scotland than in England, the reaction from it has proved more enduring. Now this, indeed, helps us to understand the fidelity of Scotland to Liberalism prior to 1886, but it leaves the real puzzle still unsolved,—why Scotchmen in 1886 failed to see, what on the whole Englishmen were able to see, that the party which had inherited the Liberal name and organisation no longer represented the true spirit and traditions of Liberalism ; or how a people, pro- verbially hard-headed, whose interests are so closely bound up with the greatness of the British Empire, and in whom the sense of its greatness is so strong, could have allowed themselves to be drawn into the pursuit of such a barren and destructive chimera as Home-rule ? The only explana- tion that can be offered is the personal ascendency of Mr. Gladstone, personal force in this case succeeding where, probably, mere historical bias would have failed. Again, Mr. Balfour was entitled to draw from his theory the consolation that, as the spirit of reaction against Toryism subsides, as it has already subsided in the class which originally cherished it, the Scotch constituencies will gradually be converted to Conservatism. But the notion that this conversion is at present in process of accom- plishment seems based on very partial evidence,— the evidence of a few isolated cases of reduced Glad- stonian majorities. Before the General Election, we were continually assured that Scotland's fidelity to the Gladstonian programme had been shaken ; but the results were very disappointing. If any such ten- dency to revolt from the spirit and methods of con- temporary Liberalism existed, the sense of personal allegiance to Mr. Gladstone, again, was strong enough to neutralise it.
There is, however, much truth of an important kind in Mr. Balfour's general theory that the longer any class or locality has been in possession of the privileges of the Constitution, the more likely it is to be found in the ranks of the Constitutional party. If we attempt, indeed, to apply the principle pedantically, year by year and con- stituency by constituency, without taking account of the special circumstances that counteract and thwart it, it can- not be maintained. But beneath the ebb and flow of succes- sive General Elections, there is undoubtedly a current which sets in the direction of Conservatism,—Conservatism, that is, in a general sense, and not as the momentary creed of a particular party. This is only what we should naturally expect, and affords grounds for the greatest confidence in the future of democracy. It proves the educating effect of political experience, not only on individuals, but on entire classes, and that its lessons accumulate, and are handed on from generation to generation. When a new stratum of society is admitted to the franchise, it has many wants to make known, many grievances to be redressed, many illu- sions which have to be dispelled. In process of time, its legitimate aspirations are satisfied, and its interests become so completely reconciled with the existing order, that when the time arrives for the enfranchisement of the next lower stratum, it is ready to take up a Conservative attitude towards any fresh proposals for reform or innovation. Experience seems to show that it is only on the occasion of a further extension of the franchise that a class perma- nently transfers its party allegiance. The middle classes remained faithful to Liberalism till 1867, and it is only since 1885 that Conservatism seems to have got a perma- nent hold on the majority of the voters enfranchised in 1867. Moreover, it is not to be forgotten that in each case Conservatism has met its new adherents more than half- way. It has adapted itself to them as much as they to it; otherwise, it might appear that there was some mysterious virtue in the Toryism of the past to give it this continuous power of attraction. And as this movement in the electorate does not prove the Toryism of the past to have been an ideal political creed, so neither does it guarantee that the Toryism of the future shall be free from imperfections. Large numbers of voters are forced, by pressure of revolutionary movements, to become Con- servative in name, who are yet far from bringing an addition to the political wisdom or stability of the party. There is no longer any room for stagnant do-nothing Toryism ; and when we have satisfied ourselves that the electorate tends to become Conservative, we have still to inquire what is the type of Conservatism to which it tends. The political character of the classes included within the franchise will, both in its good points and in its bad, be more or less faithfully reflected in the policy of either of the two parties. And it is one of the evil consequences of a wide constituency—to be set against the good—that the ignorance and apathy of large numbers of voters make it possible for either party to be guilty of serious faults of character and judgment, without finding that speedy retribution which, in a more limited constituency,, would certainly follow. Still, with these reservations, it is no small gain to be assured with Mr. Balfour that possession of the franchise tends to create respect and affection for the Constitution, and that the permanent drift of voters is towards the party of moderate constructive reform, rather than the party of revolution.
There is no reason, however, for making this a ground for excessive optimism about further reductions of the franchise. It is true that in the long-run a low franchise justifies itself ; but in politics time is an all-important element, and incalculable mischief may be done before experience has been able to correct the crudity of a new electorate. We are far, very far, from having assimilated the additions made to the electorate in 1885, or even in 1867. Those additions were themselves too sweeping, and if we had worked down to democracy by a more gradual process, we should have avoided many of our present difficulties, and among other things, Home-rule could never have been of any account. To deliberately add strength at the present moment to the revolutionary forces with which we are struggling would be veritable madness. There is no reason to object to a moderate Registration Bill or Redis- tribution Bill which should remove anomalies and help to give effect to the intentions of our present franchise law. Such measures, indeed, would help to ward off re- volutionary change. But the Government, it is rumoured, intend to deal with the question of registration along with Home-rule in the coming Session ; and there can be no doubt that the Radicals, if they find the present con- stituencies slipping away from them, will try to make the measure a sweeping one, and to abolish any safeguards that still remain in the present qualifications. Such a measure Unionists could not possibly accept, however much we may be convinced, with Mr. Balfour, that true Conservatism has, in the long-run, nothing to fear from the multitude. When we have overcome the Irish diffi- culty, and there are again two parties in the State, both fairly homogeneous, and both in a position of freedom and responsibility ; when the English and Scotch peasantry enfranchised in 1885 have come, as Mr. Balfour says they will come, " to view the great problems that present them- selves in the light of historic continuity ; " and when education has implanted in them a sense of patriotism and of fidelity to the institutions under which they live, then it will be time enough to think of further widening the basis of the electorate by including citizens of a still lower grade.
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