The Recovery of France
The elections held on the two past Sundays in half the cantons of France have completed the isolation of the Communists and carried recovery one stage further. It is now as plain as it can be that in the confused early days of September, 1948, France turned an important corner. The Government desperately patched together by M. Queuille at that time is still in office. It defeated a formidable strike effort by the Communists last. November, it has balanced the Budget and seen the beginning of the recovery of the franc. The hope of survival of the Third Force has been strengthened. But the process whereby this has come about is not simple. It can best be sorted out by considering the state of the parties, moving from Left to Right. The representation of the Communists on the cantonal councils has been reduced from 184 to 37. But that does not mean that the Communist party is breaking up. The percentage of votes cast for Communist candidates at the first ballot was almost as great as in 1945. What the tremendous reduction in seats shows —apart from the known fact that the electoral rules do not favour solid urban parties—is that nobody was willing to do a deal with Communists on the second ballot. M. Thorez, by announcing the policy of collaboration with a Russian invader, has cut the Com- munist Party away from the rest of France. Next come the Socialists, the reduction of whose representation from 429 to 27o accounts for nearly all the fall in the numbers of Third Force councillors. Their earlier association with Communists and their own poor record in Office have cost them dear. The other principal members of the Third Force, Radicals (including M. Queuille himself) and M.R.P. stand pretty much as they did in 1945, in terms of seats held. But their personnel has probably changed. They have probably gained votes from the Socialists on the one hand and lost seats to the Gaullists and other Conservatives on the other. They sit firmly in the middle of a see-saw which is now weighted down on the Right. They could remain seated there just as firmly if it swung again to the Left. But that will depend on the wisdom and firmness with which they exercise the responsibilities of power from now on.
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