T HE Economic Survey, 1955, consists of a long review of
1954, some moderately interesting but quite irrelevant thoughts about our long-run prospects,' and virtually nothing about the outline for 1955. Politicians and official economists may be concerned about what will happen in six or sixteen years' time, but business men and industrialists are naturally ,more apprehensive about the next six months. The Government's reluctance to say more about the immediate situation may be due to two things. First, the Survey must not anticipate the Budget. Second, and probably more important, political considerations may have encouraged the Government to gloss over our presenrdifficulties. In either case, one is left with an uneasy feeling of unreality. After all, the United King- dom and the rest of the sterling area were once again unable to pay their way last autumn and winter. This country must obviously export more, but how? There will ba some increase of output this year, but it must support not only a larger export trade but also more capital investment at home. Moreover, wage rates are still being pushed up, and the public will want to spend more in the shops. To ensure that too much of these extra goods is not swallowed up by home consumption would be a difficult task for the Budget makers, even if this were not election year. It is a relief that there are no signs of a return to the austerity mentality in the Survey, but a more forthright explanation of our immediate problems would have been more reassuring. The danger of gazing at the distant horizon is that one so easily trips over the stones at one's feet.
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