POLITICS
Why Mr Mandelson's ideas for the DTI may not be Mr Brown's
BRUCE ANDERSON
In some respects, the reshuffle strength- ened the government. The Cabinet minis- ters who got the sack all deserved it, as did most of the junior casualties. Some of them, such as Joan Ruddock and Nigel Griffiths, never displayed any ministerial aptitude whatsoever. But there were some curious appointments, which will mean future trou- ble for Mr Blair. The government has also lost two of its few members with principles: Frank Field and Mark Fisher.
It was always probable that Frank Field would be the first minister to resign from this government. He had spent 20 years as a staunchly independent-minded back- bencher and seemed to have no interest in becoming a minister — he was always ready to criticise his own party. He won the respect of the Tory benches, not because he was a closet Tory, but because his opinions were so evidently grounded in principle. His contributions to debates on welfare were always of a high order. Tory ministers facing him knew that a Field speech would never be predictably partisan, and might even contain a degree of praise, if the min- ister had earned it. They also knew that ill- thought-out measures would be filleted.
Frank Field is a man without a single enemy in the opposition parties, but with plenty in his own. So it was a surprise when Tony Blair appointed him to the opposition front bench. Mr Field received the promo- tion; it was Mr Blair whose reputation was enhanced. A number of observers assumed from the Field appointment that the Blairites were serious about welfare reform. That was an illusion; they were only serious about wishing to appear serious.
Proud, fastidious, sensitive, Frank Field would never have found it easy to adjust to ministerial life. The compromises and frus- trations would have grated. But the experi- ment was virtually doomed from the start, by the decision to appoint Mr Field as Har- riet Harman's deputy. No one would have found it easy to win Mr Field's respect, but hapless Harriet never had a chance. Mr Field chafed audibly, and ended up by demanding her job. That was unwise of him; prime ministers cannot yield to such ultimatums. But by then, Frank Field was past caring.
It was already clear after Gordon Brown's spending review that this govern- ment had abandoned welfare reform, and that, with the exception of Mr Field, the commitment to reform had never been gen- uine. 'Think the unthinkable' was just another sound-bite. Mr Field's departure was another stage in the dumbing-down of this government.
It was always unlikely that Mark Fisher would have survived long in a Blair govern- ment. Chris Smith's deputy at Heritage, Mark Fisher has an unreconstructed social- ist conscience. A Keynesian who believes in redistribution, he has not been actively dis- loyal to the government, but has committed thought crimes. Unlike most recent her- itage ministers, he cares deeply about the arts; he is not a Cool Britannia cultural rel- ativist. For all these reasons, he had to go. Without being as awkward — no one could be — as his fellow Old Etonian, Tam Dalyell, Mark Fisher will now become an independent-minded backbencher.
Nor is he likely to be deterred by the new Chief Whip, Ann Taylor. That was a bizarre appointment. During the past year, Mrs Taylor has displayed poor judgment, negligible man-management skills and a tendency to panic — undesirable qualities in a Chief Whip. Mr Blair did have a per- fectly good Chief Whip in Nick Brown, but his first loyalty was to the other Mr Brown, Gordon. So Mr Blair had to move him, though promotion to the Cabinet is an odd way to punish disloyalty. But the PM should have replaced him with Peter Kilfoyle, a tough Merseysider. Mr Blair no doubt assumes that with a huge majority, most of which is desperate to stay on message, there is no need for a strong Whips' Office. He has rewritten so much of the political rule book that he may be proved right, but the political weather will be a bit rough for the government over the next year, and Mrs Taylor will not be able to cope.
Nor will Nick Brown find it easy to cope with Agriculture. His forte is cajoling, fixing and intimidating — not grasp of detail or presentation. As Douglas Hogg and Jack Cunningham could testify, Agriculture is a tricky department; there is always unex- pected trouble somewhere. When that hap- pens, Nick Brown will not find it easy either to master the issues or to explain them away. He will not survive many more reshuffles, unlike Jack Cunningham, who had been widely expected to be out this time.
It is an interesting political resurrection, but Dr Cunningham should beware of his deputy, Lord Falconer, who has replaced Peter Mandelson as Minister without Port- folio. Charlie Falconer is not a Mandelson, but he is one of Tony Blair's closest friends. Peter Mandelson was effective at instilling fear, even among colleagues who were notionally senior to him, because it was always assumed that he exercised the Prime Minister's authority. So he generally did, with the exception of a brief period around last September, when the PM was less than impressed by the way Mr Mandelson had been running the government during the Blair family's sojourn at the Palazzo Robin- son. To a far greater extent than Jack Cun- ningham, Charlie Falconer is now in a posi- tion to be his master's voice. If there are 17 people who really run the government, Lord Falconer is high on the list. It will be interesting to see how he uses his power.
It will also be interesting to watch how Mandy runs a department. A lot of people will be eagerly waiting for him to fail, including a considerable number of Labour MPs and ministers. But he has two advan- tages. The first is his shadow opponent, John Redwood. Mr Redwood will be good at intellectual critique, but not at winning the House's sympathy. Indeed, if anyone can reconcile Peter Mandelson to the Labour backbenchers, it is John Redwood.
The second advantage is the scale of his department's operations, which are much more manageable than they were in the pre-Thatcherite era. There was a time when the DTI had almost come to rank with the great offices of state: the FO, the Exche- quer, the Home Office. But by the time Michael Heseltine arrived at the DTI, and however much he tried to emphasise his importance by calling himself 'President', it was a greatly diminished department; pri- vatisation had seen to that.
There is one way in which Mandy could enhance its status: by turning it into the Ministry for Europe. That seems to be his instinct, and there are only a couple of little obstacles in his path: Robin Cook and Gor- don Brown. Mr Mandelson is determined to be reconciled with Mr Brown, and Mr Blair is equally determined that this should happen. But Mr Brown may have other ideas. With the sole exception of Rab But- ler, the relationship between every long- serving post-war chancellor and his prime minister deteriorated during his term of office. It is unlikely that Mr Brown will break the sequence.
Previous page
