TOPICS OF THE DAY
WILL CHINA DEFEAT EUROPE?
IT is assumed always in all discussions that Europe will beat China, but it seems possible as things are going that China may defeat Europe. The quarrel between them has been brought to the test of force, and the force on the civilised side is proving insufficient. The Concert, to begin with, has obviously broken to pieces.
The Americans object formally and altogether to compel the Chinese Government to execute the guilty Mandarins.
They are probably influenced partly by suspicion of European designs, partly by an extreme desire to avoid further exertion, and partly by the idea, so strongly maintained by Captain Mahan in his recent book upon the subject, that China must be persuaded rather than terrorised into entering the comity of civilised nations. In any case, it is their decision that a milder sentence will suffice, and that the indemnity ought to be so moderate that it can be paid in a few instalments, and ought not to be raised by loan. It is certain that the Russian Government is substantially of the same opinion. Her statesmen, owing to the illness of the Czar, have re- covered their grip of the Asiatic question, and they have no desire to substitute the control of Europe for the control of St. Petersburg, or to lose the advantages they may gain by appearing to the Manchu nobles the least implacable of their foes. They will steadily rivet their hold on Manchuria, which is their road to the Pacific, but that secured they had rather the destiny of China were settled without the interference of the whole world. France hesitates, being, we fancy, greatly urged by the Vatican, which sincerely desires the protection of Catholic converts ; but the alliance of France with Russia is, as Captain Mahan oddly describes it, a "subsidiary." that is, a subordinate, alliance, and in action she will accept the lead of St. Petersburg. Indeed, M. Deleasse boasts in the Chamber of the reduc- tor' of the French force in Pekin to the precise number which Russia is maintaining there. Japan also throws her weight into the same scale, possibly because she has not at heart the European horror of massacre ; possibly, also, because the Marquis Ito, who now again guides her policy, thinks that the time may come when the entire yellow race must stand together to resist the tyranny of the white men. There remain Germany and Great Britain, and it is more than questionable whether, if the Concert breaks up, both or either will make the immense exeztion involved in coercing the Chinese Court to execute its principal supporters. It is of no use shutting our eyes to facts, and it is exceedingly doubtful if the German Emperor can spend the very large sums which would be involved in an effective campaign, or if Great Britain, though she can bear the expense, is willing to incur it. The Germans are tired of paying taxes, and our people, as a people, do not take China seriously. They are not in the least degree afraid of her, they regard her recent action as a natural explosion of the savagery inherent in pagan peoples, and they do not believe that if by an enormous effort they con- quered China they would be permitted to reap the advan- tage of the conquest. They have already a great war on their hands, they are disgusted by the German slaughter of men who strike them as being evil children, and they would, if they could, end the matter somehow at once. If they saw their way to Sian, or if they felt their honour concerned in reaching Sian, they would fight till they got there; but their peculiar stubbornness has not been awakened by recent events in China. They do not like differing from America, they distrust the intentions of Germany, and they will, we are convinced, after a certain period of delay, accept the argument, now becoming popular with the Cabinets, that diplomacy must consider facts, and that even justice must occasionally give way to national expediency. They would have fought the Sultan for the Armenians, but they did not resent, or even remember, the decision that as ships cannot sail over mountains the Armenians must be deserted.
This means, of course, that China wins the game. Nothing whatever has occurred which will convince the Chinese that their mighty Empress has been defeated, or that Europe not only will but can avenge any future massacre. They do not care, if the foreigners retreat from Pekin, that Pekin was temporarily occupied. They will hardly know that their troops were scattered ; indeed, ' except as instruments, they care nothing about those troops. They feel the loss of some thousands of their country. men no more than a shoal of herrings feels a haul, and will only believe that the foreigners, after all, found it impossible in the face of their resources to remain. The European notion of the sanctity of Pekin in Chinese eyes is an illusion, as great as the notion that they will regard the indemnity as anything but a big "squeeze," to be paid if it is unavoidable, and recouped if the chance should ever present itself unaccompanied by too much danger. Even the Mandarins, though better informed, will believe that their original opinion was accurate, and that China is too large and too populous to be conquered. They will go back to their old methods in calm contempt for the West, and whenever they move again will make better preparations. As for the Treaty, if the Princes are spared, and the indemnity is nominal, the Court will sign it with alacrity. Why not ? They baffle the clauses about dismantling forts by removing the capital, and the remaining clauses are but a collection of promises which they will whenever convenient smilingly evade.
We should believe that Europe, bewildered by the absence of an objective, weary of expenditure without result, and at heart ashamed of a slaughter which advances her nowhither, would acquiesce in this result, accepting the status quo ante without demur, but for one serious doubt. Will William II. endure such a frustra- tion of his hopes ? That Monarch has for years past intended to acquire an India in China. He has boasted that he would be to the Chinese what Attila was to the Germans. He has seized the opportunity, the perfectly fair opportunity, afforded him by the deliberate murder of his Ambassador to form a volunteer army of trained soldiers for Asiatic work, and he has convinced his people that their honour and interest are bound up in a forward policy in China. Will he consent to retire with nothing but a million br two of indemnity and a pocketful of promises from chuckling Mandarins ? He may, because his people greatly dislike the notion of more taxes, because events at Livadia may alter the position of Germany in relation to Russia, and because he may think that with the army he has transported to China he may secure prizes in a different direction ' • but it is much more probable that he will not. Men of his character, really' lofty yet inclined to self-advertisement, do not like to be baffled in their first great enterprises. He may declare that he has a right to justice, which is true ; that the means adopted in concert with Europe for securing that justice have failed, which is true also ; and that as justice must be secured he shall hold Shantung as a material guarantee that his demands will one day be complied with. What is to prevent him ? He will not in so doing break any pledge, for he only pledged himself, if the contingency occurred, to consult England, and he will consult her, probably rejecting her advice. No Great Power will go to war with him for taking a Chinese province which immediately threatens nobody. The Chinese armies as at present organised cannot drive him out. The revenue of Shantung, which is full of minerals, will pay all,expenses. His own people will believe that he has opened to them an immensely large market, which may be indefinitely extended, and he himself will exult that he has laid the foundation of a Colonial Empire without disturbing too much the equilibrium of Europe. It seems to us that this is at least a possible result of the failure to coerce the Empress-Regent, and it is one which English- men should consider before they abandon that at present unpromising attempt. We are as weary of the war as our countrymen can be, for we see in it as at present waged no prospect of a beneficial result ; but human vision is strangely limited, our claim to justice for a murderous outrage is a righteous one, and in pursuing it we can, if we please, afford to wait. We understand the American position and the weariness of Europe, but we are not content to take a little blood- money as compensation for .he murder of our mission- aries and their converts and the attempted murder of our Ambassador. Our counsel, therefore, would be to wait on, even through years, till the opportunity arrived for bunting the guilty down; but that is not the policy of the Continent, and we greatly doubt if it will be the one on which Parliament will decide.
Previous page
