OPTIMISM IN PRAGUE
AMONG the many Christmas messages delivered last week, there was none more admirable than the broadcast speech of Dr. Benes, President of the Czechoslovak Republic. Dr. Belles, who was one of Europe's greatest Foreign Ministers, is a worthy successor even to Dr. Masaryk ; under him Czecho- slovakia has remained the only stable democracy created by the Great War. On Christmas Eve Dr. Benes described his country as " a democracy which has the mission to keep the flag of freedom, peace, and toleration flying in Middle Europe." He went on to say that Europe will go neither Bolshevist nor Fascist. He did not believe in a Russo-German or a Russo-Japanese war. In short he did not believe that war would come at all. On the contrary, he thought that agreement was possible between Germany and the Western Powers, and equally between Germany and Czechoslovakia.
In the condition of Europe today this confidence in peace is remarkable. Contrast it, for instance, with the fears shown lately by the statesmen of other and stronger nations, each insisting, more or less explicitly, on the imminent danger of war. In the President of Czechoslovakia this confidence is even more surprising. For everyone knows that if war comes Czechoslovakia will be of all countries the most immediately threatened. Everyone knows that the German policy of expansion eastward, declared in Mein Kampf, can only be realised at Czechoslovakia's expense. Shc is threatened, more- over, not only externally but internally ; for, with a population of 15 millions, she has a German minority of three millions, 70 per cent. of them belonging to Herr Henlein's pan-German Sudetendcutsch party, At any moment they may be Used, as the National- Socialists were used in Austria, to create internal trouble which would give Herr Hitler an excuse fOr intervention. Lastly, Czechoslovakia, a Succession State, still young, with no great national tradition (apart from Bohemia) except that created by Masaryk, lies between the two Great Powers, Russia and Germany, each of which has declared its undying hatred for the other. In these conditions,. it seems paradoxical for Czechoslovakia to believe in peace when other countries, more secure, arc certain of war.
This optimism may indeed be the alternative merely to panic. When the worst threatens, it is a natural form of self-preservation to believe in the best. Certainly, there is something stoic in the mood in which Czechoslovakia awaits the future ; the same stoicism might be imitated with advantage by other countries. But Dr. Bones has also some solid grounds for his confidence. The first is the increased strength and unity of the Little Entente. Some months ago critics were prophesying the break-up of the alliance between Czechoslovakia, Jugoslavia, and Rumania. In fact it has become stronger, and its strength was demonstrated recently in the joint session of members of the three Par- liaments in Bucarest and in King Carol's visit to Prague. Further, Jugoslavia and Rumania, through the Balkan Entente, arc firmly linked with Turkey and Greece ; together with Czechoslovakia. these countries form a block of 65 million peoples pledged to oppose any forcible alteration of the territorial status quo. Again, in recent months Czechoslovakia, as Dr. Belles said, has with satisfaction watched the strengthening of the Franco-Polish alliance and of her own relations with France ; and this common friendship may even relax the long-standing tension between herself and Poland. There arc perhaps more reasons for this reorientation of policies than fear of Germany or of Italy. For Czechoslovakia, like France, is allied by pacts of mutual assistance with the U.S.S.R. The military obligations of these pacts cannot be fulfilled unless Soviet troops are allowed to pass over the territories of Poland, Czechoslovakia or. Rumania ; and fear of such a contingency both alienated Poland and weakened the Little Entente. It seems probable now that such passage has not been conceded to Russia, and that the consolidation of the Little Entente and of the Franco-Polish alliance has followed the removal of Poland and Rumania's fear of the Communist armies. There is, indeed, little reason for Germany's charges that Czecho- slovakia will " open_ the gates to Bolshevism " ; the Little Entente and Poland are themselves . barriers against Communism. The cause of Czeclio” slovakia's confidence is the iron circle drawn around Germany by France, her allies and the Little Entente. ; nor can Germany complain of encirclement, though it is a reality, since it is patently non-aggressive,. and she refused every invitation to enter into negotia-. bons for an Eastern Pact of Mutual Security.
There remains the domestic problem of .Czecho7. slovakia's German minority, and the. dangers it involves. As an opportunity for Gcrman inter- vention, Czechoslovakia comes a good second to Spain. Last week, speaking at Koniggratz Bohemia, Dr. Derer, the Minister of Justice, outlined a solution of the problem which the Government thinks will avoid the danger of conflict with Germany., Rejecting Herr Henlein's proposal of a form of federation modelled on Switzerland, and asserting there could be no cession of Bohemia, he said that the minority was strong enough to make assimilation impossible and to justify a degree of cultural, social. and racial autonomy ; and to claim a political position in the State corresponding to its strength. The conditions of such a solution, however; must be the absolute loyalty of the German minority to the State and the collaboration of the Sudeten- deutsch with the other German parties, Socialists, Catholics and Farmers. Such a settlement would indeed be a model for the solution of Eastern .Europe's racial disputes ; for territorial adjustment inevitably means war. But the solution depends on whether the attitude and purposes of Germany" are compatible with the agreement which Dr. Benes thinks possible. In Germany's present con- dition the choices before her are only too clear ; she must make a diversion—in other words, war— or make the concessions necessary to the peace of Eastern Europe and of Europe as a whole. Of these concessions; afi agrecifient with Czechoslovakia would be invaluable, and might lead eventually to an Eastern Security Pact, or better. still give such strength to the League of Nations as to make sectional pacts unnecessary. Certainly British diplo- macy should press for such an agreement., Among the reasons for Czechoslovakia's confidence Dr. Belles numbered . the . revival of British interest in Middle Europe and the unambiguous declaration by Mr. :Eden' of our obligations to France ; what strengthens France strengthens Czechoslovakia. But the reverse is also true ; and it is difficult to believe that, committed as we are, we can disinterest our- selves in Middle Europe, which is the key to France's security and therefore to peace in the West.
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