BLUE GREENHOUSE EFFECT
Michael Trend stood in the
Euro-elections. He found resentment towards the Tory leadership
THERE is much talk at the moment among Conservatives about the 'Green- house effect'. One hears many party enthu- siasts wondering aloud: 'What can we do about those Greens?' Calmer counsels, however, prevail at Conservative Central Office where the phenomenon of the Green vote in the recent European elec- tions was greeted with a sense of deja vu. This was the mid-term protest vote that once went to the Liberals or the Alliance; and the Democrats have paid the main price for the swing to the Greens.
The emergence of the Greens may well help in future national elections to contain the Democrats in the many seats where Tory MPs are more vulnerable to them than they are to Labour. Moreover, there was evidence that Labour too is vulnerable to the sentiment that lies behind the Green vote, as was seen in the London North- East constituency where along with a slight rise in the number of people voting Con- servative there was a fall in Labour's vote. Modesty almost prevents me from men- tioning that I had the honour of being the candidate in the Conservative interest and can lay claim to being one of only two Tory candidates throughout the nation to reduce Labour's lead over the Conservatives at the European election. I fought the campaign that Central Office had recommended: concentrating on getting the local Tory vote out on the day. Like many other candidates, howev- er, I was surprised at some of the develop- ments in the national campaign, as when huge billboard posters appeared which, at first sight, seemed to be suggesting: 'Don't vote.' And then there was Miss Webb of Bethnal Green. On the eve of polling day, this good lady was so consumed with a determination to find out who her Con- servative candidate was that she decided to ring Central Office and enquire. Waiting there on the line at the centre of com- munications was the Prime Minister her- self. She was sorry that Miss Webb had not seen any election material and would send some round to her straight away by motorcycle messenger.
The candidate, however, experienced an uneasy moment when he heard of this development. What bad luck, I thought, that the person granted the enormous privilege of speaking to Mrs Thatcher hadn't been from Finchley — or Old Bexley and Sidcup — or anywhere apart from my patch. But as I whizzed off to visit Miss Webb (she was out walking her dog, said her neighbour, and — understandably none too pleased about the attentions of the press who had been harassing her), I reflected that my campaign would get the bill for the motorcycle messenger. What would have happened if every penny had already been allocated? Happy as I would have been to serve Mrs Thatcher at Stras- bourg I wasn't so keen if her intervention in my campaign saw me end up in the Tower of London – which lies uncomfort- ably close to Bethnal Green – for electoral malpractice.
Some candidates, no doubt, will feel that they could produce more significant exam- ples of the tension that they felt existed between high command and the troops at the front-line during the campaign.
Other Conservatives will ask: does it really matter? In one sense it makes hardly any difference. The Prime Minister's closest advisers worked on the assumption that the European election waS not going to go well for the Conservatives in mid- term in any case. They felt that the higher priority was to protect Mrs Thatcher her- self — in the part of a tough national leader — for the much more important match, the next general election. Moreover, they argued, even a bad result would not sub- stantially alter her position with respects to the other European leaders.
In an important way they were right. The Prime Minister departed for Madrid this week with as strong a position as she could possibly have hoped for.
Other European leaders, too, did badly at the Euro polls (although I dare say they will be pleased that she came off worse than they did). Her position is, however, weaker than it was, although this is as much due to inflation and economic trou- bles at home as to the election results. Even so Mrs Thatcher has been able to be much tougher at the summit than most commentators thought she could afford to be. She has been able to give very little away in setting the terms for British entry to the European Monetary System. Sir Geoffrey Howe will probably still find himself uncomfortably mouthing the for- mula about 'when the time is right'. There is every likelihood that Mrs Thatcher's delaying tactics on other contentious mat- ters discussed at the summit – such as the separation of the Exchange Rate Mechan- ism from proposals for a common currency will work. Horse-trading between the countries and compromise has been the order of the day; and the Prime Minister has, after all, had room to manouevre.
In other words, forget the election, it's business as usual in Europe. So, do the European election results make any differ- ence at all to the Conservatives? I think they do. There has been damage: not so much to Britain's negotiating position in Europe but internally to the Conservative Party. It is another telling example of the other 'greenhouse effect' that the Con- servative Party is currently gripped by – the very small number of people bottled up together in the hothouse atmosphere of Downing Street who make all the impor- tant decisions and leave the mass of party organisers and workers completely out in the cold. This phenomenon was clearly visible during the Euro campaign and lies behind the public criticism – extraordinary for the Conservatives – of the Prime Minister herself over the conduct of the election.
The Prime Minister's political and press advisers are now lamely suggesting to her that she blame the party organisation, or the weather, for the result of the European elections; they may even turn on one of their own number and demand a head from within the clique. Then they will signal that the briefly troubled waters have closed over the European elections – much as they predicted – and there is nothing more to worry about. Out among the Conserva- tive associations, however, few people will understand this. They like winning elec- tions; they need to win elections; and, above all, they hate feeling that their leader has become isolated from them. It was, I think, this feeling, more than any other factor, that did for Mr Heath in 1975. Mrs Thatcher's sharp poli- tical instinct should tell her that she needs to be more in tune with her country-wide support rather than with her courtiers.
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