Ill Omens
By FRANCIS CASSAVETTI nt ROY WELENSKY, on his best behaviour, L./gave a Salisbury press conference a fortnight ago his latest version of why he held Federal elections in April. It was 'to enable me to negotiate.' The negotiation has not really begun Yet, but the preparation of bargaining positions is well advanced.
First, consider the stand taken by Mr. Julian Greenfield, Sir Roy's most influential counsellor as well as Minister both of Home Affairs and of Law in his Cabinet. Mr. Greenfield, in the talks with Mr. Butler last week, flatly disputed the ruling given by the Lord Chancellor on March 26 that the break-up of Federation or secession from it was a matter 'solely within the legislative competence of the United Kingdom.' Mr. Greenfield has an incurably legalistic approach. But his stand against Lord Kilmuir has a specific practical object: to bolster Sir Roy's bargaining power when the real horse- dealing with Mr. Butler begins. This cannot be until the Home Secretary's own economic study Of the three territories is completed and the out- come of the Northern Rhodesian elections is known.
Mr. Butler, throughout his tour, has openly acknowledged that the preamble to the Federal constitution, stipulating that it must be accept- able to the peoples of all three territories, is binding on him. 'I must obey the terms of the Preamble,' be said in Lusaka. Sir Roy, on the other hand, said : 'I don't quite understand what is meant by acceptable.' This is his way of saying that the Federation is a fact, that Northern Rhodesia is now part of it and that it cannot break away without the consent of his Federal Cabinet with its new April mandate. That, he and Mr. Greenfield hold, is the legal position. Further, they contend, this puts Britain morally and legally in the wrong if she acquiesces in its dissolution. Mr. Butler's duty, on this view, is to hold it together because the onus for its break-up would fall on Whitehall.
Sir Roy, even if he will not say so in public, is ready to accept Nyasaland secession, but only in return for a cast-iron guarantee that the link between Northern and Southern Rhodesia re- mains as strong as ever. And that, of course, means a political as well as an economic link. Whether 'the facts,' on which the Home Sec- retary has laid such stress both in private and in public, will allow the situation to work out with- in Sir Roy's negotiating limits is another matter altogether.
The first fact is that the Africans of Northern Rhodesia are quite as passionate, if less patho- logical, in their resolve to get rid of Federation as are the Nyasas. And this is not confined to Political parties : it embraces also the twenty- four main chieftains of the territory. Further, as Mr. Kenneth Kaunda put it to me, there can be 'no association whatever, political or eco- nomic, with Southern Rhodesia under a minority government. We are now pledged to our friends in ZAPU on this.' It is of course possible to dis- miss Mr. Kaunda's statements as of no great weight. But to do so is, to borrow one of Mr. Butler's terms, to 'burke- a second major fact. The Northern Rhodesian elections, whatever else they do or do not achieve, can hardly fail to pro- duce an anti-federation majority in the Lusaka Assembly. The United Federal Party is likely to carry off thirteen or fourteen of the fifteen upper roll seats, with Sir John Moffat's Liberals hold- ing the other one or two. On the lower roll, the present prospect is that Mr. Kaunda's UNIP will get nine or ten and Mr. Harry Nkumbula's African National Congress five or six. On the controversial national roll, where candidates must have 10 per cent. from each race, even Sir Edgar Whitehead's most optimistic estimate is that the UFP might with luck win one seat. It is possible that all or most of these elections will be frustrated by candidates failing to obtain this required 10 per cent. from each race. But even if all these seats are unfilled, the UFP will prob- ably not have an overall majority. All other parties are anti-Federation. So the odds are on a near-stalemate, anti-federation having the edge, but with the new Maudling constitution prob- ably brought into contempt.
The October elections are crucial in the history of Northern Rhodesia in that they should bring the first taste of African political power there. In UNIP there are three men—Mr. Kaunda himself, Mr. Simon Kapepwe, the extremely in- telligent party treasurer, and its quietly efficient chairman, Mr. Solomon Kalulu—in whom moderate Europeans feel confidence as minis- terial timber. In the ANC it is probably not wise to look beyond the president, Mr. Nkumbula. Outside the two parties, as yet aloof from active politics but ready to be called to candidature and office, are enough Africans of higher calibre—four senior civil servants, three or four doctors and several headmasters. But, unless Mr. Butler can turn the present march of events, they will not be called upon—the wild men will be on top. One way Mr. Butler might be able to avert the worst would be by declaring pub- licly before the elections that the present federal se:-up between Northern and Southern Rhodesia is dead.
Mr. Butler, with however open a mind, is still working within the possibilities of a solution which could be countenanced by Sir Roy. Yet Sir Roy is deaf to all suggestions for sweetening the present pill of Federation. Above all, he will not look at a sweeping extension of the Federal franchise, which could cut some of the political ground from under the feet of Mr. Kaunda, per- haps even of Dr. Banda. When I questioned him on this point, Sir Roy made it clear that he was content if the Federal franchise were in line with that of Southern Rhodesia. Yet the darkening scene in Southern Rhodesia, hinging on the bitter deadlock over the consti- tion, is now the blackest, most threatening cloud hanging over Sir Roy's domain. There is to be no change in this constitution before elections which will not now take place until next March. Sir Edgar Whitehead, fending off the mounting challenge from his Right wing, has rejected any gesture to gain African confidence. But there are few thoughtful people in Southern Rhodesia who believe he can prevent a major eruption of violence much longer. The low calibre of ZAPU leadership from Mr. Joshua Nkomo down and consequent lack of organisation and discipline may have enabled Sir Edgar to con- tain the rout so far; but a new mood in ZAPU, illustrated by their warning to European mem- bers to make themselves scarce in the phase ahead, is manifest. The one-day strike called in the townships outside Salisbury a fortnight ago at less than twenty-four hours' notice by only a breakaway section of the trade union move- ment was more of a success than expected. Mr. Nkomo and his colleagues are busy steel- ing themselves to provoke blood-letting on a major scale and the prison sentences they badly need for their own kudos. It is doubtful if the processes envisaged by either Mr. Butler or Sir Edgar will be given time to work out.
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