1 NOVEMBER 2003, Page 26

Ancient & modern

Mars closed in, and astrology freaks wet themselves with excitement — the poor dears. In the ancient world, astrology came under the category of divination, which Cicero hit on the head in his two-book De Divinatione (published 44 Esc, just after the assassination of Julius Caesar).

Cicero puts the defence of divinatio into the mouth of his brother Quintus, who defines it as 'the foreknowledge and foretelling of events that happen by chance'. This occupies Book One, and in Book Two Cicero refutes him point by point. First, he points out that there is no area of life which the diviner can deal with more efficiently than the expert: for questions of illness one goes to a doctor, for nature to the scientist, for right and wrong to the philosopher, for statecraft to the politician, etc. The diviner has no role anywhere. Second, Cicero points out that the definition makes no logical sense. If something happens 'by chance' it cannot, by definition, be predicted; otherwise it could not be said to have happened 'by chance'. If an event were truly to happen 'by chance', Cicero goes on, even a god would not be able to predict it; so how could a diviner? Divinatio is therefore impossible if everything is controlled by chance.

Let us then assume, Cicero argues, that everything is controlled by Fate. In that case, it is hard to see what advantages divinat-io can bring: for if something is fated, it will happen, come what may. No amount of divination can help a person avoid it — and how ghastly to know everything that is going to happen to you, Cicero goes on, quoting the example of the recently assassinated Julius Caesar. If, on the other hand, Fate can be turned aside, then nothing is certain. In that case divinatio is pointless too, since it is supposed to deal with what is certain, and nothing can be said to be 'certain' which can be prevented.

Cicero now takes each type of divination in turn — interpretation of natural phenomena like entrails and lightning, the taking of auspices, casting of lots, horoscopes, oracles and dreams — and shows what nonsense they are. He ends by asserting the importance of religion, which he associates with 'the knowledge of nature', and contrasts it with 'superstition, which must be torn up by the roots: for it is at your heels all the time, pursuing you at every twist and turn — when you listen to a prophet or an omen, offer sacrifice, watch the birds, consult an astrologer, see lightning. Since these signs are given all the time, no one who believes them can ever be at peace.'