Governing from Blackpool
PVHE Prime Minister was rough on the I Liberals on Tuesday. This was plainly not because he spurns their assistance. He is in, no position to do so. But Mr. Grimond at Scarborough had already presented the Government with almost everything he had to offer, and gratitude has small place in politics. Mr. Wilson therefore found it expedient to ridicule his would-be allies while clearly looking to them for aid. His uncomfortable shift of ground over steel emphasises the importance of that aid in his calculations. Equally, the fact that Mr. Wil- son can behave towards the Liberals in this way with a credible show of confidence emphasises the pressures currently bearing upon the third party. -At Scarborough the Liberals found it agreeable to denounce the Tories and their record. The irony is that be- fore the last election it was apparent to many of them that their best hope of further progress lay in a Tory victory. They could foresee the acquisition of valuable spoils amid the ruins of another Labour defeat. The present parliamentary situation may have yielded them a morsel of the 'real meat' which Mr. Grimond spoke of, but they might have had a banquet. In the long run they will probably be seen to have suffered more than either of the other parties from the electorate's verdict last October. The Tories have much to gain from a taste of defeat, and Labour urgently needed to face the realities of power : but the Liberals are caught in a bubble of illusion.
The message from Blackpool this week is that the Government is supremely anxious not to be parted from these realities of power. Hence the hints of differences of opinion among ministers over the correct course of action. Some are said to favour a quick appeal to the country while the opinion polls are moderately favourable. This is an understandable point of view. The Government's extensive window-dress- ing operations are not likely to do much to ease the strains of a hard winter, but they might serve very well as an election mani- festo. However, in public at any rate Mr. Wilson (and Mr. Brown) dismiss thoughts of an election with disdain. 'We are going to stay and do the job we were sent in to do,' said Mr. Brown; and the Prime Minister talked with immense relish of Labour's task of governing.
Bold words do not change facts, however. One inescapable fact is that governing from Blackpool is infinitely easier than- govern- ing from the House of Commons will be during the coming session. Mr. Wilson can command a decisive majority at Blackpool however disputed the issue may be—immi- gration, Vietnam, foreign policy, and the rest. He has no such guarantee at West- minster during the coming months. There the governing majority overall may dis- appear entirely at any time, and the administration will then end its days in a short and probably bitter comedy.
Mr. Wilson's preference for dying in the last ditch, if necessary, runs the risk of giving the Tories the initiative. The next few months can place the Government in difficulties in a variety of ways. Unem- ployment is likely to continue to rise. In a strenuous session the inner dissensions of Labour may break out of control. The economic outlook is still full of hazards.
The benefits proinised in Labour's shop- window will remain frustratingly in the future. Opinion polls which have swung suddenly in one direction can swing as sud- denly in the other. Mr. Wilson may find himself deprived of his tiny majority, and dependent upon the Liberals for survival, at a time of difficulty and unpopularity. It is easy to imagine Mr. Heath, at such a moment, finding it possible to pull away the Government's Liberal prop. The Opposition would then be choosing the time for an elec- tion : not the Government.
Meanwhile the Tories face a task requir- ing both delicacy and strength. They must
keep a close watch on their tactics while not neglecting their strategy. The old struggle for the decisive centre of opinion has grown sharper under Mr. Wilson's Government. The Tories' forthcoming conference at Brighton has at least as much to gain as Labour from that restraint which Mr.
Gunter urged upon the delegates at Black- pool. Mr. Heath has the exceptionally diffi- cult task of equipping himself quickly with a new authority. If the policy statement which will emerge from his many commit-
tees next week does its job it will put some new clarity and conviction into the work of opposition. The task for Mr. Heath and his colleagues now is to look like the next government—not the last one.
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