TOPICS OF TIIE DAY.
THE FAILURE OF THE CONFERENCE. THIS Conference, now virtually ended, has been a humilia- tion alike for Europe and for her Diplomatic Ser- vices. Europe has recoiled before a barbarian Power, and her diplomatists have been baffled by men gifted only with untrained cunning. When the Plenipotentiaries of the Six Powers came together—and it should be noted how easily Italy for the first time glided into her new place —all the Governments alike expected that their decision, if only it could be arrived at and could be formulated, would be final. There might be dissensions between England and Russia, intrigues on the part of Austria, difficulties raised by Germany and France, inopportune suggestions from Italy, but if the minimum of discordance could be ascertained and an arrangement finally accepted, there would be an end of oppo- sition. The objects to be sought were well understood,— namely, the maintenance of peace and the creation of Govern- ments for the insurgent provinces of Turkey sufficiently civilised to be endurable, yet sufficiently dependent on the Sultan to be free from direct interference on the part of Russia. At first, everything went well, and the diplomatists, who, in spite of all the evidence of history, still believe in themselves, were positively jubilant. See how sensible the nations become, when trained men are once brought to represent them in face-to-face discussions Lord Salisbury and General Ignatieff walked about arm-in-arm, the best friends in the world ; Baron Werther opposed nothing ; Count Zichy only stood up for Turkey on points of dignity ; and Count Chaudordy—to judge by all accounts—contented himself with very mordant epigrams. The plan adopted was, of course, weak, for it is characteristic of diplomatists among all mankind that a group of.them never agree upon an "extreme," that is, an original, course; but still it was a reasonable plan, very like the sort of arrangement family lawyers often make in a family dispute. It settled nothing finally, but still it would work for a time, and it prevented a family law-suit. The Provinces were to have Christian Governors and the greater part of their own taxes ; Turkish garrisons were to be interned in specified fortresses ; the Mahommedans were to be disarmed ; the Admin- istration was to be supported by a National Guard ; and an International Commission was to possess the supreme legisla- tive power, with a small foreign army to render it effective. The arrangement, though disappointing to men who, like our- selves, know that while a Turkish soldier remains in a Christian province the Christians will never be exempt from terror, seemed practical and reasonable to most Englishmen ; and the diplomatists were congratulated, especially by men intent on Stock speculations, on their admirable moderation. Then the " plan," carefully for- mulated and elaborated in all details, was submitted to the Turkish Pashas, and then—the diplomatists discovered that they were all deceived. The Turks did not believe in their unity, did not care one straw about the moral force of Europe, did not see any bayonets, or at all events, sufficient bayonets, behind that moral force, and did not intend to yield. The diplomatists might as well have threatened the Emperor Theodore, who felt the rockets as appeals to his conscience, with the moral censure of all good men.
If Europe had been represented. by Generals, the next step woald have been coercion of the only kind to which Asiatics are amenable. A Russian army would have crossed the Pruth, an Austrian army would have occupied Bosnia, an Italian army would have disembarked at Salonika, a British fleet would have occupied the Bosphorus, prohibited all crossing from Asia, and menaced Stamboul, and then the Conference would have met again, under more favourable circumstances, to expand its decisions and render them executive. Diplomatists, however, when assembled in groups, have a horror of action, always think of peace as an end, because when peace termi- nates so does their function, and usually postpone all objects to the single one of success,—that is, to an agree- ment which they can proclaim to Europe with a cer- tain exultation. The Plenipotentiaries recoiled in a sort of horror, forgot at once the main object for which they were collected, and set about whittling down the terms, until they should become endurable to the men they were sent to overawe. Week after week they assembled, enfeebled their programme, and dispersed, till Europe, half with amusement, half with indignation, saw herself standing cap in hand, humbly asking the Sultan how little his Majesty, in the plenitude of his independence, would please to grant. His Majesty would grant nothing, except a promise that he would,, if his new Chambers would agree, be graciously pleased to do whatever he thought fit. Even this insult did not move the placid blood of the Plenipotentiaries. They had proposed, as policemen, to arrest a " rough ;" the rough, with the calm scorn a rough feels for men who will not fight, quietly sneered at them; and the policemen humbly inquired how it would please him best to make his escape from custody. If all accounts are not false, General Ignatieff, whose mission it is to destroy Turkey ; Lord Salisbury, who was so cordially welcomed • as a friend to the outraged Christians ; Baron Werther, who represents the armed master of Europe, in fear of Turkish resolution, proposed to waive all terms except the establishment of a non-administrative International Commis- sion, which should include Turks, and the selection of the first Governor-Generals of the Provinces from among Christian subjects of the Porte, and with those concessions to profess themselves content. All care for Europe, for peace, for the oppressed Christians, had apparently faded from their minds. If there is anyth;ng certain in this world, it is that Europe can- not have peace until this Eastern Question is settled, and that it cannot be settled until the Christians are freed from Ottoman domination. The Turks, thus victorious, will misgovern the Christian Provinces worse than ever, till the oppressed popula- tions, goaded to madness, will again by insurrection arouse the enthusiasm of the Slays, and again summon Europe to decide how long her rulers will suffer an open magazine to exist in the midst of civilisation. The diplomatists, even supposing their last offers had been accepted, would have done nothing but hand over the Christians to the Mussulmans, assare Pashas of impunity in any excesses, and proclaim the impotence of diplomacy to secure, even by extreme and united efforts, any result ; and even these offers have been rejected by the Turk, who, con- fident that he has only diplomacy to deal with, and holding diplomacy to be only chatter, calmly rejects all compromise, and placidly considers how much his Christian subjects can be made to pay for the trouble they have given him in slaughtering them down to a temper of unresisting sub- missiveness.
Diplomatists assembled in bodies usually fail like that, and it is only when we come to consider the conduct of individuals that we discover any matter for surprise. Then, however, we confess the surprise is very great. People said, and the world believed, that Lord Salisbury was a man of haughty temper and resolute will, who might be tempted to browbeat an oppo- nent, but could never be alarmed by him ; who was certain to see his end clearly, and adhere to it with immovable deter- mination. What subtle influence has made him so meek in presence of the Turk, or induced him to forget alike the obliga- tions owing by Great Britain to the Christians, whom in 185& she replaced under their oppressors, and to the nation, which is humiliated by his defeat I Is it even conceivable that he has voluntarily accepted such a position V We confess to a total inability to believe it, and yet where is the force which can have induced him to accept or even to discuss those wonderful " last terms," which, as he of all men thoroughly understands, could at best be but a cover for defeat ? His action is only less inexplicable than that of General Ignatieff, which seems to us wholly to baffle comprehension. The Russian Government continues most energetic and most costly preparations for war. It is, if we understand its history, utterly unable to stand before its people as afraid of Turkish power and Turkish courage. It ardently longs to be accepted as"the one effective friend of the South-Slavonic populations. Yet General Igna- tieff had actually consented to terms which involve the sur- render of all Slays in Turkey to a repetition at discretion of the outrages at Batak. He had voluntarily placed his Govern- ment in the position of one which would surrender Christians to any tyranny, however great, rather than venture on any cam- paign, however certain might be its issue. It may be said that he was certain beforehand that every proposal would be rejected—that Turkey, in short, wants war—and is willing, therefore, to pose as the most moderate of man- kind. But he can hardly hope to carry Europe by mere " moderation," or to induce her to like defeat because Russia shares it ; and he was risking a power of real importance to his country, the confidence of the South Slays in the genuineness of Russian sympathy. He may have known that war is certain, but if so, why not break off negotiation when the cause of the Christians seemed to be abandoned V Suppose the Turks. had ac- cepted the wretched sham called the " final programme," where
would General Ignatieff be then. At present, Russia stands before Europe in the position of a Power which, while profess- ing to postpone her own interests to those of her oppressed kindred, forgets all about their sufferings the moment the Power which inflicts them lays its hand upon its sword. Even if war breaks out in the spring, the position of Russia is the most undignified conceivable,—is, in fact, that of a wealthy man who, having pledged himself almost by an oath to relieve distress, when asked for his money answers with suave dignity that he is quite ready, if only he is helped by a subscription. But many of our readers will say the Conference, if it has not protected the Christians, has at least prevented war. Where is the evidence of that ? In what way has the Conference removed any of the conditions out of which war was expected? Are the Turks more humble V On the contrary, the failure of the Conference is to them new evidence that they can do as they please, that they are essential to Europe, and that any agitation caused by atrocities they may commit is sentimental merely. Are the Christians protected ? Not one whit. Midhat Pasha may order all Batak to be impaled for having had the seditious insolence to tell Mr. Schuyler the truth, and though the Ambassadors will remonstrate, nobody will fire. Are the Russians contented ? On the contrary, the Turks have laughed in their faces, have defied them even when they threatened war, and have threatened their own ports on the coast of the Black Sea. Has Europe announced its will ? The Conference has proclaimed to all the world that Europe has no collective will, or that if it has one, it is the will of a man who is only determined when there is no resistance ; but when there is, begs permission to retire before he is thrown out. Every cause of war which existed before the Conference exists now, and this additional one,—the Romanoffs have publicly chal- lenged Turkey, only to be defied, and if they do not fight, will in Continental eyes be disgraced for years. The Conference, in short, by shrinking from coercion has inflamed the pride of Turkey, humiliated the pride of Russia, and aggravated the position of all Turkish Christians,—and that is railed diplomacy.
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