What Hope in Germany ?
The most important unanswered question in Germany at this moment is, of course, the question concerning the exact course of Communist policy now that the new German contract and the European Defence Community treaty have been signed. Possibly the announcement of that policy awaits the decision of the East German and French Governments to ratify, or not to ratify, these agreements. But it is most likely that, so far as Moscow is concerned, the general course to be followed has been mapped. Consequently there is everything to be said for arranging a Four Power conference as soon as possible, since, despite the failures of such conferences in the past, that is a more likely way of getting information out of the Russians than the exchange of Notes. In the meantime there are certain signs to be read, particularly in East Germany. They are uniformly unhopeful. With the Federal Republic in its present state of perplexity (a situation which is des- cribed in an article On a later page) it is-difficult to say exactly what the West Gerinan reaction would be to the increasingly conspicuous activity on the east side• of the zonal boundary. But the most natural reaction to the reinforcement of guards and barriers, forced deportations from the frontier region into the interior of the Russian zone, and talk of building up an East German army without delay must be one of repulsion. That is the feeling it must inspire in most Western countries, other than Germany. And as to West Germany itself, the only slight doubt is whether the emotion of fear may perhaps be even stronger than the emotion of disgust. In any case these activities of the East German Communists were not calculated to improve the chances of unity. Nor does Herr Grotewohl's statement that the discussion of free elections can proceed if and when Bonn rejects the recently signed agreements with the Western Powers. Any such rejection would undoubtedly remove the first item on the Western Powers limited agenda of questions which they are willing to discuss with the Russians. Without free elections throughout the whole of Germany there can be no solid progress towards unity. All the East German moves may conceivably be regarded as bargaining counters. It is to be hoped that they are nothing more sinister than that.
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