(DOMING GLEAMS OF A COMMERCIAL " PROSPERITY." 'Many/ oireumstanees contribute.
to show that there is to be .at an early date some change in the exceedingly quiet 'state of all our markets. If we could trust to present appearances, according to precedent, we might look shortly for a bursit, of prosperity ; but luckily the conduct of the ininimercial ela4sea, in other countries as well as in this, . has shown that the experience of the last few years has not been thrown away, and while we may calculate 'upon some improvement, we are checked in counting too rapidly, and we are encouraged to hope for a temperate enjoyment of the coming season. The aspect of better weather is much of the same character in all directions of the commercial horizon, whether we look to the import market, .the manufacturing market, or the pro- duce market. Amongst the satisfactory appearances, for exam- ple, of the corn trade, we note that while prices are lew, stocks continue to be brought forward in a steady proportion to the current demand. This fact alone indicates many most de- sirable circumstances. The sales of wheat during the last quarter have been decidedly greater than they were at the same period for two years past, although the average price for theparticular Season is now 42s. 8d. against 55s. last year, and one penny short of 70s. on the average of the five years. Pro- bably the seller is somewhat influenced by the fact that imports continue. We remember that, some months back, before the harvest, there was a good deal of speculative gloominess on the subject of a threatened deficiency, with a manifest attempt to "Bear " the market ; the attempt has totally failed, but the re- sult proves something more than we have yet noted : it shows that those who are interested in the sale of corn have to a certain extent got over the old fashion of speculative gambling instead of trading on the commercial principle of supply and demand. At the same time, we have the evidence of country gentlemen and farmers, at the recent agricultural dinners, to the fact that the farmer andthe labourer are both decidedly better off than they have 'generally allowed themselves to be. We do not assume that there an any wondrous and exceptional prosperity ; on the contrary, we assume that there are difficulties in that walk of life as well as in every other ; but on the whole the agricultural classes are sub- stantially better off than they have been, while they are steadily trading on ample supplies, at fair prices, in a market regularly supplied, and offering decided and continuous advantages to the buyer.
The fact alone that we may look forward to full supplies of bread for the remainder of the agricultural year, lends double value and substance to all the other prognostics of commercial prosperity. If Manchester is still not excited by any immense press of business, we have reports from Bombay that trade is rapidly expanding under the continued progress of British arms, :assisted by the impatience of the wealthier and more intelligent natives to get back to commerce ' • and we may look for an increase in this renewed trade. Again, to the west, coupled with a re- markable degree of present quiet in the Union, there is a marked and general return to agriculture,—to that branch of industry which, while it supplies the basis of wealth for the largest number of people in America, offers the broadest field. to British manufac- tures. The extension of railway enterprise in our North American 'Colonies, the efforts consequent on the discovery of New Columbia and its gold fields, the mission of Lord Bury with reference to a federal union, all promise increased activity in that quarter, and of course increased trade. Even our shipowners participate in these prospects, and may somewhat abridge the tears of distress which they are at present disposed to shed before Parliament. A certain qommercial truthfulness has, for a season at least, drawn forth the admission that the next cotton crop will probably be extensive in America, while it is increasing in India. The probability of in- creasing demands in America, the improved prospects on the Continent, the development of agricultural machinery at home, and even the emulative preparations for national defence, assist in Stimulating the activity of the iron manufacturing districts. And notwithstanding the somewhat restricted. importations of wool from Australia, the wool provinces of our country continue 'to be fairly employed. In all directions, therefore, of our manu- facturing and mercantile industry, we see the excessive quiet giving way to a renewed life. So far good. The prospects on the Continent—where they are not somewhat impaired by the chances of discord, as between Germany and Denmark, or between Constitutionalism and Abso- lutism in the south—arc favourable alike to natural production mid to the useful arts. The amount of land culture is increasing in France, and, although we are aware that the hopes of calling into existence some new enterprises, particularly schemes for agriculturally and commercially colonizing Algeria, have ended for the time in disappointment, there is undoubtedly a decided tendency to progress, and that of a solid kind. We are aware of the efforts made by a certain class to improve the first renewal of Prosperity, by reexciting the speculative mania for joint-stock enterprises, or rather for dealing in the shares, that is in the names of joint-stock projects. We have observed the drain of gold towards the north of Germany. We see that even in Spain, gold one of the Spanish Credit Mobilier, that of Messrs. Pereire, has risen from 490 to 525, on, the promise of a contemplated lated issue of the shares of the North-Western Railway of Spain, in which the .Pereice. set are said to have takente largetcoureissionaeWe not dung siuon'thei admanoesEbach.arentonbe. made in-France through the eoinpastatively dorunint ere& yesexcier, amid' ss .jeciurect at the time, that companynwinehis thetwin of the Credit' Molailier, received peculiar attention 'in consequence of the mew iuditihrenee, shown by' the 'public to the, larger oempany. That these gigantic speculators should be in rani,' on the very -first opportunity is not -more certain than that fr - should appear in wet weather, or the stormy petrel when tin wind rises ; and for the same reasons;-there is a .chance of en_ joyment and of feeding.
Rut. there are signanthat the late discipline has benefited the moral health. ,of the :poor public ; which neenas at last to have learned that thatrueimeritmf any project isnot to be ascertained exclusively, or chiefly, from the,names that are lent to it; still less from the amount; of ieapital which any particular members of the direction may be .able to (lemmata individually. The public has now, learned, that men. who can makintbeir millions by dealing in projects of Credits Mohiliers, Russian-railways, Austrian cash re. suniptiona, or any other vast design, are less in the habit of lend- ing their energy and intelligence to the .proseontion of the work to be done, than to the.saising of-the wind in the first instance; their risk being, before the critical:period arrives, transferred to some other persons. In short these great millionnaires deal less in en- terprises than in projects, and, therefore, their names, having comparatively small connection with the.pinetieaLlahour, are now recognized aa being, imperfect vouchers. The publics has learned that it must look more elosely. to: the nature of the intended work itself,--to the practical information on the want or the opportunity which the enterprise is to subserve, to the character of the mana- gers, lessee financiers, or grandees ofthe• money-market, than as .men acquainted with the working out of the particular business in -hand.; in short, the public has been learning that safe investments do not consist in schemes with certain names of eminent and wealthy persons for their god-fathers, but in plans based upon ascertained data, and intrusted to the hands of working men for substantial production. We see collateral evidence to this great fact. Look, for example at the increased attention given, in this country as well as in America, to agricultural improvement. The country gentleman, whore year or two back, wauld have come to London to spend his savings, when he has them, in shares, once looked more to the quotations or to the names than to the solid merits of the project named in the prospectus, but now is more in- clined to sow his money in his own.land.
It is indeed a period of triumph for the agricultural free-trader who is enabled to point to such facts as those which are marshalled by Mr. John Grey of Dilstan in answer to the inquiries of the Em- peror Napoleon's Government. The Northumberland country gentleman, who belonged years bank to the comparatively limited number of agricultural free-traders, is now able to convert his old arguments for the measure into a simple record of the results since attained ; • he is able to point to increased production, im- proved terms for tenants, rising rent, rising wages, extension of machinery, and increase of meat as well as bread for the town keeping population ; in short to an increase in the produce for everybody, because industry has adjusted its own distribution with more perfect freedom, while enlightened by a more perfect intelligence. But the improvement which has taken place, since free trade was initiated not a century ago, although it is great, cheering, and most satisfactory for the advocates of free trade and improvement, is only an earnest of what might be done ; and farmers, not exceptional in their class, are beginning to discover it. Here, then, is a vast field for the investment of capital, which
may be almost indefinitely extended by an extension of intelligent leases, of mechanical innonnuity, and of home labour, under the
incentives of more steady engagement at higher wages. And the prospect which we have just been describing depends, not upon casualties of the season, but upon the inevitable consequence of the antecedent facts. The demands for capital in the north and east of Europe have been very considerable. Some hesitatipn has naturally existed in fur- nishing the millions sterling which Russia or Austria might ab- sorb, for the simple reason that although the public are satisfied with the unimpeached honour of Russia, they have yet to learn something as to the commercial character of the great railway
scheme, which might be too large even for a Russian.Government ; and with regard to the commercial good faith as well as the pow- ers of Austria for carrying out her projects, they have to learn— everything. There has been no disposition therefore to exhaust the stores of capital by pouring it away in those directions. Schemes that at an earlier day would have carried off the accumu- lating gold are viewed with a persevering indifference. The capi- tal-owning public has grown packsome. But there are enter-
prises, in England, in America in the colonies, and even on the
Continent of Europe, which will undoubtedly " pay "; will pay better than to keep, capital accumulated at as interest of 24 per
cent, or less. At some date, therefore, perhaps.not long distant, the capitalist class will relax the tight hold that it has hitherto, in freezing indifference, kept upon the reservoirs of gold, the streams will once more flow, and the season of prosperity will open.
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