POLITICS
Sometimes it's hard to be a Unionist, giving all your love to just one man
MICHAEL GOVE
But you'll search in vain for any song which suggests there can be harmony between Unionist and Republican. For the country-and-western wing of Unionism there's only one suitable response to Gerry Adams's pledge this week to work with them. In the words of the Nashville ballad: 'How can I believe you when you say now that you love me when you know you've been a liar all your life?' David Trimble has never been a country-and-western man, and therein lies his difficulty this weekend. The Ulster Unionist leader is an intellectu- al opera buff in a party of good ole boys. His legal intellect may now incline him to believe that Gerry Adams has moved to a position where he could share in power. But the Unionist bluegrass roots are not yet ready to accept that 'La Bomber e mobile'.
In the next week Mr Trimble has to con- vince his party that the trust he is prepared to repose in Mr Adams is not misplaced. On Saturday 27 November he will ask the Ulster Unionist Council to support his entry into government with Sinn Fein with- out any prior handover of arms. It is a change in party policy so fundamental as to make the re-writing of Clause Four look like a simple question of syntax. The Ulster Unionists contested elections to Northern Ireland's new assembly on the basis of `no guns, no government'.
Earlier this year I shared a platform with one of Mr Trimble's closest aides, Reg Empey, in Willie Ross's East Londonderry constituency. Mr Empey's message to the good ole boys there was pure dixie — decommisioning was where he'd take his stand. Now, however, Mr Empcy and Mr Trimble arc prepared to let Sinn Fein into government without seeing any IRA guns. They do so on the basis of ten weeks' con- tact with the Sinn Fein leadership in Sena- tor George Mitchell's review of the peace process. The Unionist leader has had the chance to assess for himself the credibility of Mr Adams's commitment to decommis- sioning.
In July Mr Trimble refused to believe Tony Blair's claim that there had been a 'seismic shift'. But this week the earth moved for David and Gerry. The majority of Unionists, who have not enjoyed the same intimacy with Mr Adams as their leader, remain sceptical. Those with long memories, and that's most politicians in a province where 1690 is recent history, are suspicious of the personal touch. They remember that Mr Chamberlain struck up a rapport with the German chancellor at Munich, and was happy to accept that Herr Hitler's territorial demands stopped at the Sudetenland.
Sure, they'll say in Scarva, Gerry's now ready to say that decommissioning is neces- sary. But Mr Adams has been happy to sanction a little murder to achieve his ends, so why should he now balk at a little lying? He condemns punishment beatings, does he? Well that's nice, but why have they con- tinued all the time he's been talking at Stormont? How can we believe you when you say now that you're peaceful when you know you've been a bomber all your life?
Mr Trimble's supporters have more than just a pocketful of hope to sustain them. They know that Sinn Fein has ambitions to overtake the SDLP in the competition for the Catholic vote in the North and plans to eat into Fianna Fail support in the Irish republic. They calculate that this appetite, Adams and McGuiness's own desire for office, and their attachment to the fruits of modern celebrity, all hinge on Sinn Fein participating peacefully in an Ulster assem- bly. Which is true, but only up to a point.
'I see we're back in the papers.'
Mr Trimble may have developed a shrewd assessment of the republican mind. But he doesn't have one. The former IRA comman- der Sean O'Callaghan does. Mr O'Callaghan is a friend of Mr Trimble's but his candour in the past may not, at first sight, be so help- ful now. In a telling analysis of republican tactics earlier this year, Mr O'Callaghan explained how the IRA operate — with a story about mortars. The republicans, he revealed, developed a superior 'barracks- buster' mortar several years ago but declined to deploy it until the British had refined their defences against the earlier model. Only when mark one's usefulness was exhausted was the new weapon deployed. And so it may prove with decommissioning.
As matters stand, a commitment on the IRA's part to appoint an 'interlocutor' on decommissioning will be enough to get Sinn Fein into power. So why give anything more? Once republicans are in power, with a ceasefire still intact, will London and Dublin really agree to throw them out if nothing more is forthcoming? And risk a resumption of violence?
The history of the peace process so far is the history of past decommissioning hur- dles being cleared away. Even if Tony Blair and Bertie Ahern can be cajoled into apply- ing pressure, what's to stop Sinn Fein hand- ing over a rusty tommy gun to buy a few more months in office, months during which the argument will be put that decom- missioning has become a distraction to the real business of government, such as dis- arming the RUC?
If Mr Trimble is to make a success of his appearance at the Ulster Unionist Coun- cil, he will have to pledge that he will not continue in office unless substantive decommissioning is completed satisfactori- ly. A post-dated letter of resignation would bind his hands, but how else can he guarantee a farewell to arms? As the country-and-western rebels of Ulster Unionism might say to their leader, how else can we believe you when you say that you won't leave us when we know you've been a lawyer all your life?
Bruce Anderson is away. Michael Gove is comment editor of the Times. He is writing a critical analysis of the Ulster peace process, The Price of Peace, for the Charles Dou- glas-Home Trust and the Centre for Policy Studies.
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