The great difficulty in M. Ferry's way is his foreign
policy. His own party in the Chamber dislike the risks the Govern- ment is running in Tonquin, and are annoyed at the unpleasant- ness with England on account of the Shaw affair. It is impossible to ascertain the truth upon the subject, but in Paris it is believed that M. Ferry is personally anxious not to retreat before China, and that he defended in the Cabinet the dispatch of reinforcements to maintain the French position in Madagas- car. This is probably true, but M. Ferry has already averted any difficulty with England by the offer of compensation to Mr. Shaw, the occupation of Tamatave can be protracted at little expense, and the road for retreat from Tonquin is always open. With the Chamber disinclined for war. and M. Gr6vy specially hostile to expeditions, the French Premier is scarcely the man to sacrifice his future to the luxury of being obstinate. If he does, his majority will be very narrow, and his popularity with the Army will disappear, Soldiers drawn together by conscription detest Asiatic service, and the higher officers are well aware that to conquer a tropical delta it the teeth of an empire like China is a very serious undertaking. No General of standing would attempt it with less than 30,000 men, and it is stated that Dr. Harmand has already calculated the cost at £8,000,000 sterling.
