M. FERRY'S NEW POSITION.
1711HE •-old difficulty. of France, the tendency Of her parties to _L form camps as hostile to each,other.as if .theyibelonged to :separate nationalities, is evidently not overcome. The Irreconcilablea, or Extreme Left, .to whom so -much has recently been conceded, have broken away .again, and are denouncing a Government of Advanced Liberals in a way which in other times would portend an insurrection in Paris, and perhaps a march of the populace upon the Assembly. Their immediate pretext is the dismissal of General Thibaudin and the apology made to. Spain, which they consider concessions to " Orleanist ' demands—that is, to the feeling of- the upper class—brit there is little doubt that these are ionlypretexts. The revolt began before King -Alfonso- arrived. Theirritation of the Extremists has been increasing for some time, and no concession has even partially soothed it away. 'The attacks on the Church, the Secular -Education Act, the suppres- sion of Jesuit establishments, the purgation Of the Bench in the Radical interest, even the appointment of General Thibaudin to.the'Ministry of War, have made no difference, and they declare M. .Jules Ferry, who assents to all these things, to be "no 'better than a monarchist." The -Govern- ment, they assert, is a Republic only in name,..the march of Democracy is arrested, and radical changes must be made before the present regime .can even claim the cordial support of "the people:" What :they„ precisely want, • we .confess
ourselves unable, after studying them for years, to define with clearness, nor do we believe that they exactly know themselves. They say they want more equality, the suppression of Esta- blished Churches, a progressive income-tax, elective Judges, and the reduction of the Army to a voluntary defensive force ; but these immense changes would not content them, without pro- visions for the prevention of distress of a distinctly Socialist kind. Employment, to begin with, should be found for all. They are, in fact, impatient of authority altogether, and in the judgment of the Cabinet, which, be it remembered, would be considered in England ultra-Radical, their impatience has reached a height at which further concession would be dangerous. M. Ferry, therefore, in two speeches, delivered at Rotten and Havre, has declared war on the Extremists, has repeated the old phrase that " Order must be maintained,"— which in Fiance always conveys a latent threat—has rejected compromise in advance as a " bastard combination," and has called upon the whole country, in tones which almost portend a dissolution, to choose, and choose finally, be- tween the Government and the Extremists. There is no mistaking the meaning of words as grave as these :--- " Henceforth, the flags are unfurled, and nobody need deceive himself as to their colours. People must choose between the Governmental policy, which I have just defined as that followed by the Cabinet, with the co-operation of the Chambers, and the Extremist policy. All who care for the future of their country must make their choice. There is no middle course possible ; any bastard combination is out of the question, for it would merely have the semblance, the varnish of a regular Government, but at bottom would be Extremist. What serious politician would lend himself to such a policy, or fancy him- self master of the citadel after having handed over all the ap- proaches t" The Extremists have accepted the challenge, and the next session will, it is believed, be one of determined battle be- tween the Ministry and the representatives of ultra-Red ideas, infuriated by what they consider an apostasy.
There can be little doubt that M. Ferry will win, but his position will be one of extreme perplexity. In his main ideas, the necessity of advancing slowly, of maintain- ing order, and of rejecting all outrageous demands, such as the immediate confiscation of all Church-property, the appoint- ment of elective Judges, or the dissolution of the Army, the Premier will assuredly be supported by a large majority of the Deputies. France is Left Centre, as a whole, and, in spite of the anti-Clerical wave of opinion which recently passed over her, it is certain that she does not desire radical changes, the suppression of the Church, or any diminution in the means of national defence. She will support any Government which is at once firm and progressive, and will wait patiently for the social reforms, such as some kind of Poor Law, still admitted to be required. If the populace of the cities rise, the peasantry will allow of their suppression by force, and the Army would not permit any attack on the Constitution by open violence. Nor will there be any reluctance to accept M. Ferry as the mouthpiece of the party of order and modera- tion. He has said some rash things in his time, but he is a convinced Republican, he is entirely without Clerical bias, and he fairly understands the peasantry who send him up to the Chamber. He might, on his domestic policy alone, form a com- manding and, perhaps, long-livedparty, bat still there are serious dangers in his way. He may prove unexpectedly obstinate about the "Forward" Colonial policy, which he inherited from M. Gambetta, which he thinks essential to the declining trade of France, which he has, so far defended against the President, who is strongly against expeditions, and which the country at large views with no favour. He has rid himself of the Shaw difficulty by a wise concession, but he has still the conquest of Tonquin and Madagascar on his hands, and it is still doubtful if he will agree to any kind of retreat. It is difficult to believe that he would. risk power, of which he is very -desirous, *and the policy of which ha speaks so earnestly, in order to pursue dreamy and dangerous schemes of conquest in Indo- China ; but he may feel inclined to do battle at all points, and if he does, his majority will very soon desert him. The. people of France are not prepared for war with China, and still less for" ita necessary cost ; and if M. Ferry stands by his: foreign policy, he will be suddenly overturned. The peace party and the Extremiste will vote together, and the right cannot vote for M. Jules Perry. We do-. not rate this riskj high, for M. Ferry will, we believe, obey the Chamber, but: still it"erica. Then, again, he will have to face the tempta- tion of every man• in his position-, that of becoming gradually too repressive; Hardly any moderate" Minister in France has]
been Able to avoid this danger. The Extremists are very irritating, more irritating than in this country we quite under. stand ; they are fond of threatening violence, and they control the whole body of the distressed in the great cities. They can cause partial or serious &mutes, and though iimeutes may be suppressed without difficulty, it is part of the history of France that the Minister who suppresses them thenceforward relies mainly on force, and ultimately falls.
Nevertheless, taking short views, as Sir Cornwall Lewis and Lord Elgin advised, we believe that the Irreconoilables have made a grave mistake, and have solidified the Moderate party for a time. M. Ferry's declarations, which are almost too grave for the occasion, were most cordially received, both at Rouen and Havre ; and though the Normans are in some respects separate, they represent, with great accuracy, the feeling of Republican Conservatism. That feeling is greatly intensi fled by the dislike of Paris, a dislike which never dies among the peasantry, and by the dread of foreign complications arising from the threats of the Irreconcilables. The latter could hardly have chosen more unsafe ground for their pronuncia- miento, or ground upon which they will obtain so little general support. Nor could they have selected a worse time. The Deputies have been for weeks apart from the influences of Paris, have been living more or less among their consti- tuencies, and have felt the force of that desire for quiet which all travellers tell us is just- now dominating the French peasantry. Outside the towns, there are no electors anxious for war, or excessive change, or riot in the streets, and M. Ferry will have the full benefit of the desire for tranquillity. The benefit will be all the greater if, as is believed, he is prepared for a dissolution, for the Deputies at such times are as respon- sive to any general wish as if they had no opinions. Before our next issue, in fact, M. Ferry will have come in contact with actual France ; and France, unless we mistake her, has no desire for commotion, and doubts the Premier only because in his foreign policy he is not so desirous of peace with order as in his internal administration.
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