POLITICS
Mr Blair may be about to take a vital personnel decision
BRUCE ANDERSON
4 0 h, a Queen may love her subjects in her heart, and yet be dog-wearied of 'em in body and mind.' Thus one of the characters in Kipling's Rewards and Fairies; it is hard to believe that Her Majesty has not had similar thoughts at certain recent moments, especially about her subjects in the media.
But the question remains as to where those media stories came from; Mr Hague has implied that some of them were dis- seminated by Mr Blair's entourage, as part of a campaign of credit-milking. That claim is difficult to prove or disprove, for the evi- dence would consist of confidential discus- sions and discreet telephone calls, whose contents will remain a matter of conjecture.
In one respect, Mr Blair and his press spokesman, Alastair Campbell, seem to have behaved well. It was inevitable that the PM should be heavily involved — he is the Queen's first minister — and the Palace was entirely happy with the way that Mr Blair did his duty. Tony Blair himself used to be no ardent royalist and Alastair Camp- bell still less so, but that may have changed since they moved into Downing Street. They will have discovered, as every new prime minister does, the close working rela- tionship which exists between the Palace and the private office in No. 10 plus the Cabinet Office. Viewed from that perspec- tive, the monarchy seems an efficient part of the constitution as well as a dignified one. In his early days as PM, Mr Blair was happy to seek the advice of his predecessors and spoke regularly to John Major; he no doubt found the Queen to be a source of valuable guidance about his new responsi- bilities: she has the experience. Before 1 May, Mr Blair had not given the monarchy much thought; by now he will have.
But he is also and always a politician. A cricketing dean was unable to process through the nave of his cathedral without wondering whether it would take spin. Instinctively, Mr Blair asks himself the same question of any issue that arises. Over the Princess, the spinning started early.
Mr Blair knew immediately that the Princess's death would have a great impact, though even he was surprised by the intensi- ty of the public response. Mr Campbell also understood the dramatic significance; he drafted Mr Blair's initial statement. Noth- ing wrong with that; in such circumstances a prime minister does not have time to craft the appropriate language. But both men knew what they were doing when they used the phrase 'the people's princess'. It is also interesting that before Mr Blair made his tribute, Michael Brunson of ITN seemed to be clear as to what he was going to say.
Over the next few days, Messrs Blair and Campbell were in continuous contact with the Palace. But someone ensured that the media was aware of this and that Mr Blair's good advice did not go unnoticed. As for the various 'splits' stories, no one should under- estimate the tabloids' cynicism, or their pow- ers of invention.
Jon Snow is not a cynical man; nor does he invent stories. A couple of days before he made his allegations on Channel 4 about rows between Prince Charles and the Queen, he had dinner with Peter Mandel- son. Mr Mandelson, who seemed unusually piano at a book launch party earlier in the week, has been questioned about what was said over dinner; he insists that Jon Snow was on transmit rather than receive. But not everyone is convinced that Mr Mandel- son is blameless.
Peter Mandelson's activities during August had already shaken the confidence of some very senior figures in No. 10. The view was expressed that Mr Mandelson's principal asset had been competence; this has now been devalued. There is a further problem. Relations between Peter Mandel- son and Gordon Brown remain refrigerat- ed. Not only will the two men not speak to one another; neither will their staffs — and Mr Mandelson will not even speak to MPs whom he suspects of being Brown associates. There are those who do not believe that it is healthy to divide the Parliamentary Labour party into Montagus and Capulets.
But if Mr Brown was honest with himself, he would admit that his dislike of Mr Man- delson is a displacement activity for feelings which ought to be directed against Mr Blair, his erstwhile political younger brother, who leap-frogged him. The Chancellor and the PM have a relationship which is wary rather than warm, though there is mutual respect, albeit grudging on Mr Brown's part. None of this matters while everything is going well for the government, but when — if — poli- tics returns to normal, there could be trou- ble. There are those who remember that Messrs Crosland, Healey and Jenkins could never co-operate. An alliance which would greatly have strengthened the Labour Right could not be formed. As Robin Cook has never been an easy colleague, is now envious of the ease with which Tony Blair and Gordon Brown com- mand good headlines, and has therefore indulged in some opportunistic and unhelp- ful headline-grabbing of his own, similar strains exist in the Blair government, only just below the surface of events. There are those who think that as long as Mr Mandel- son is in a strategic role in No. 10, there is no hope of lessening the tension.
A solution may be at hand, for there are reports that the first Blair reshuffle may be imminent. There are those who protest that it would be crueller to sack ministers after only six months in office than never to have appointed them at all, but they appear to be losing the argument; no one should understimate Mr Blair's ruthlessness. A couple of Cabinet Ministers, David Clark and Gavin Strang, are expected to ratify their insignificance by their departures. Poor Dr Clark, who knows that he is not long for the ministerial world and only hopes that he can have a freedom of infor- mation Act as his memorial, has a sup- posed co-ordinating role as Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster. Before August that would have been a natural promotion for Peter Mandelson, but it would give him even more power at the centre.
One way of avoiding that would be to send Mr Mandelson to Heritage, a Cabinet post and therefore a titular promotion, but a demotion in real terms. The current Her- itage Secretary, Chris Smith, who was him- self demoted from his shadow Social Secu- rity portfolio, has been trying to restore his position by some ill-judged headlines. As he is less important than Robin Cook, he is sackable, though he may be given another chance at Transport. But the decision on Mr Mandelson's future is the most impor- tant personnel decision that Mr Blair has yet had to take. It could have a crucial effect on his government's fortunes.
Apropos of headlines, Edwina Currie has been insisting that she is not about to leave the Tory party, for she is a Gaitskellite not in her views, but in her determination to fight, fight and fight again for the party she loves. Others suspect that she really means to fight and fight again for the pub- licity she craves, and that she is about to do her spiteful worst to add to Mr Hague's embarrassments by joining Labour during the Tory party conference.
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