Strauss's last chance
Patricia Clough
Bonn For the next 15 months West Germany will reverberate to the sound of a mighty battle as the country's two major politicians compete for the Chancellorship in the 1980 . elections. On the left, though only relatively SO, is Herr Helmut Schmidt, undisputedly the best and most popular Chancellor since Adenauer, some say since Bismarck, some say ever. On the right — the far right — is the challenger, Herr Franz Josef Strauss, Prime Minister of Bavaria, leader of the Christian Social Party and for 33 years the most controversial and irrepressible figure in West German politics. Here, pit ted against each other, are the two strongest temperaments, the most brilliant talents and most blistering tongues in public life. The fight, the weekly Die Zen forecast, is going to be fearsome.
So the very thing that all but Strauss's Closest colleagues held to be inconceivable, has now in fact happened. The opposition have fielded the man whose intellectual gifts, unrivalled political instinct, and wide ministerial experience might long since have obtained for him the Chancellorship, if his own extreme and uncontrollable nature had not always disqualified him. Strauss is a Clever speaker, amusing and every bit the rumbustious Bavarian; and so he commands deep devotion among his own people, who understand him. But elsewhere he has the image, for which he has only himself to blame, of a potentially dangerous reactionary who appears impatient with democratic rules, and who has stated that Germany cannot repent continually for its Nazi Past. And even his period as defence minister in the Sixties was studded with scandals culminating in the Spiegel affair, when he lost the job for lying to Parliament. Eight years ago, in one of many remarks he has lived to contradict, Herr Strauss said that he hoped West Germans would never be in such a bad state that they would elect him Chancellor. The election has yet to come, but the remark could be applied Perfectly to the Christian Democrats who made him their candidate. He is not exactly loved by them since, convinced that he alone knows how things should be done, he has spent as much time making trouble for the bigger sister party and its leaders as he has for the government. But after nine years in opposition, and with little real hope of returning to power for another five, the Christian Democrats are discouraged and demoralised. Herr Helmut Kohl, the uninspired party leader and its candidate for Chancellor, failed to provide the leadership they badly needed. He was repeatedly attacked by his colleagues, most mercilessly OA all by Herr Strauss, yet no one could name an alternative candidate able to satisfy all factions. Moreover none of the other leaders was too anxious to risk his political career by leading an almost hopeless fight against Herr Schmidt. Ambitions were directed towards the 1984 elections, by which time, they calculate, the Chancellor's reputation might be waning.
But Herr Strauss, at 63, saw this as his last chance to attain the Chancellorship before he became too old. He was unlikely to win but he was prepared to fight. When the discouraged Herr Kohl finally decided to give up and step down in favour of Herr Ernst Albrecht, the young, able, but rela tively inexperienced Prime Minister of Lower Saxony, Strauss declared himself candidate and threatened, if the CDU did not accept him, to run in competition with Herr Albrecht. There is little the party fears more than a split. Memories of the political divisiveness which helped destroy the prewar Weimar democracy and bring the Nazis to power have provided an.invaluable les son. Also, competition between the two sister parties would, under West Germany's complex electoral, system, lose.. many deputies their seats in parliament. Faced with Herr Strauss's determination, the Christian Democrats surrendered and dropped Herr Albrecht.
What apparently prompted some CDU leaders into accepting Herr Strauss was the calculation that, since the election is pre sumably lost anyway, it is better lost under his leadership. A defeat, they calculate, would end his political career and rid the party of him permanently. But another factor which, insiders say, had a certain influ ence was Mrs Thatcher's victory in the British elections. It was taken as a sign that a more radical conservatism, as opposed to the moderate variety the CDU traditionally represent, is not only respectable but can also win elections.
But although certain CDU member4 promptly abandoned their political careers, party youth groups protested and some nine per cent of regular voters reportedly plan to change sides at the news of Strauss's victory, the overriding instinct for unity will doubt less hold the party together. It remains to be seen, however, with what enthusiasm more moderate members will be able to campaign for Herr Strauss. Having yielded, the CDU told Herr Strauss that they are a 'people's party of the centre,'and that if he wanted to get anywhere he would have to gain the support of all sections of the party. In fact, the next few months are expected to see the emergcecy of a new Herr Strauss, a gentle moderate set to woo the more liberal factions and to persuade the electorate, as one Social Democrat leader put it, that he is the grandmother and not the wolf. But it is doubtful whether he can keep up such a stance for 15 months without occasionally reverting to type.
The greatest beneficiary of the Strauss candidacy is, of course, Herr Schmidt. With their arch-enemy as the challenger, the Social Democrats' discontented left wing can be expected to give Herr Schmidt, albeit with some reluctance, their full support. Since Herr Schmidt appeals to Christian Democrats almost as much as his own people, CDU deserters will have little difficulty in voting for him. Meanwhile, West Germany will be treated to what is most probably the last — though with Herr Strauss one never knows — and most powerful performance by this extraordinary figure who has towered for so long over the post-war scene.
The 'bogeyman' image which he has created conceals a complex nature often in conflict with itself. The earthy instincts and rough tactics of a Bavarian peasant are combined with the brain of a fine scholar and shrewd analyst. His bovine appearance masks an unexpected sensitivity, a desire to be understood and appreciated as an intellectual. Friends say it was partly this yearning for appreciation which drove him to seek election as Bavarian prime minister last year: to draw strength and support from the people who loved him after his uncomfortable years as self-appointed chief villain in Bonn.
, Strauss .has been described as the last great peasant leader. Certainly, when he declares that the Social Democrats have turned West Germany into a 'pigsty without parallel' or that leftist demonstrators behave 'like animals to whom you cannot apply laws made for humans', he is talking as Bavarian peasants talk in the beer halls and horse markets, where every point is made with the force of a pile-driver. To Bavarians this is natural, but to the cool, restrained men of the north Strauss seems violent and uncontrolled. But, at the same time, if he is asked which was his greatest day in Parliament he will recall, npt some major debate, but the day when he and a very eminent scholar on the Social Democrat benches quoted long phrases of Latin at each other and he found that his own Latin was better than his opponent's. And, in addition, he deeply impresses foreigners including, reportedly, Mr. Brezhnev. He demonstrates a comprehensive grasp of world affairs and displays sensitivity, caution and restraint.
Herr Strauss is credited with a Machiavellian cunning, with plotting his moves many years ahead. Not so: his is a hit and miss technique; if a certain scheme does not work, he scraps it and tries another, sometimes making huge mistakes in the process. He is also surprisingly indecisive — it reportedly took much persuasion from his associates before he finally challenged Herr Albrechtfor the candidacy. It is very likely that he does not yet know how to fight the election. What is certain, however, is that he will do everything that is humanly possible to win.
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