THE SITUATION.
THE Cabinet is evidently not going to fight for Turkey, for the idea of an Autumn Session is rejected ; and with- out Parliament the Government can do nothing except watch events, and make such preparations as will not demand large additional expenditure. That is a wise and right decision, though it must be sadly painful to Lord Beaconsfield, who un- doubtedly intended to protect Mahommedanism, as a Semitic creed, and is strangely inconsistent with the turgid and brag- ging tone of his supporters in the Press, and for the moment it moderates the aspect of affairs. The specialty of the pre- sent situation, and a very noteworthy one, is that although complicated, its complexity depends almost entirely upon the possible action of Great Britain. If she abstains from war for the caste which oppresses the people of Turkey, the crisis, though serious, remains an Eastern instead of becoming a European one. The great Council called at Livadia to assist the Czar decided that it was not expedient to postpone the war till the spring, and the Turkish proposal to declare a six months' armistice, with Servia fettered and Turkey free, was therefore refused. The refusal was accompanied by some kind of assurance that Russia would still accept the English conditions—an armistice of six weeks, and the grant of administrative autonomy to the Provinces— but as Turkey had already rejected these, the addition was treated as a mere diplomatic formula, and never seriously dis- cussed. The war, therefore, between Servia and Turkey con- tinues, and it may be taken as certain that Russia will very shortly either take the field in person or receive a declaration of war from Constantinople, where, apparently, they think that an exhibition of audacity may bring them friends. Large bodies of volunteers are entering Servia daily, and at least one body of Cossacks has arrived at Deligrad, which cannot have -quitted Russia without official permission. The Roumanian Government has been induced to promise its adhesion, and to Arnow Russian troops to pass through its territories, and pre- parations are nearly completed for the despatch of a great Russian army into Bulgaria. It is clear, therefore, that Russia intends to break the power of the Ottoman caste, and clear also that if Britain stands aloof that caste will be left entirely to its own resources. Germany, as we have -endeavoured to show elsewhere, has every reason not to interfere ; and the Austrian Government, after playing a game of brag to the last moment, and, we fear, taking in our own Foreign Office, which never knows anything, has decided that His easier to join Russia, and make her own narrow provinces on the Adriatic worth having, than to wage a great war at the risk of losing the whole of her Slav subjects. There is no other Tower to interfere, and the crisis, serious as it is, is therefore reduced to this,—that the Slays of Europe are at war, not with Turkey, but with the caste which holds Turkey in chains. That is a great affair, because that caste owns and spoils some of the finest harbours, cities, and provinces on the globe ; but it is a local affair nevertheless, in which the future of vast masses is im- plicated, but in which European civilisation is not directly or immediately imperilled. The war, great as it may be, is localised and confined to races not fully civilised, and need not, unless England so decides, cover the face of the world.
The immediate danger is, as we have said, postponed, and can only be revived strongly by English action. There can hardly be a doubt that Lord Beaconsfield, beaten in his hope of protecting the Ottomans, will endeavour, as soon as oppor- tunity offers, to work the spell contained for the imagination of Englishmen in the word" Constantinople." The name of that naval station weighs on English Staff officers and on thousands of the public like "the blessed word 'Mesopotamia'" on Sydney Smith's old woman, and the Premier may yet be enabled by repeating it to launch the country into a war against the people of Turkey, and for the assistance of their ruling tribe. By deciding to wait, however, he has given the people time to think, to study maps, and to make up their
minds as to the merits of two alternative policies. That we must either occupy Egypt and Mitylene, at the risk of a war with France,—not because France wishes to fight for so sterile an end, but because France will go to the very verge of war to prevent the Suez Canal passing to those who chiefly use it,--or at the risk of war with Russia hold Constantinople as a second Gibraltar at the other end of the Mediterranean, may be accepted as a practical certainty. Constantinople to us would be a fearful burden, bringing on us the hatred of all Slave— who regard it as Catholics regard Rome—of all Greeks, who think it is their traditionary stronghold, and of any race which may rule in Asia Minor ; but Englishmen are accustomed to burdens, and failing Egypt, we entertain little doubt that they will accept this. The alternative, however, still remains open, and it is for them to decide, and decide quickly, to which of the two ends their agents shall direct their efforts. The reasons for preferring Egypt are manifold, the main one being that our rule would be an unspeakable relief and blessing to the population of the whole Valley of the Nile, and probably of Palestine, ridding them finally of Turks ; and there is one in especial which must not be for- gotten. We cannot trust Mr. Disraeli. War for Constan- tinople as a position essential to our Imperial security—if that be proved by sufficient evidence—would not be an enterprise repugnant to Liberals any more than Tories, but war for Constantinople as the Turkish stronghold, to enable Ottomans to desolate Asia Minor with impunity, would be an iniquity, and there is no security, if Lord Beaconsfield remains at the head of affairs, that the just object of protecting an Empire beneficial to the world may not be postponed to the unjust object of protecting a race whose ascendancy over Christians is injurious to the world. That danger would be avoided by preferring the Egyptian alterna- tive, and unless Lord Beaconsfield has been previously dis- missed from power, it is to that that English Liberals should direct their thoughts. They, like their opponents, desire not only the safety, but the grandeur of the Empire ; but they decline to purchase either by an alliance with the mighty and valiant tribe whose one true boast, except their splendid capacity for soldiership, is that" where their horses' hoofs have trod grass never grows again."
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