FINANCIAL NOTES
THREE MONTHS' TRADE
THE conclusions to be drawn from the Overseas Trade returns for the first quarter of 1938 must at best be mixed. The figures are certainly less good than in the same quarter of 1937. Compared with that quarter imports increased by £15,276,220, while total exports declined by L3,211,020. Thus the adverse balance of merchandise trade increased by £18,487,240 to £108,556,382. Part of the decline in the value of our exports doubtless represents changes in the price level, but it is by no means certain that the price movement has operated wholly to the advantage of British trade. For instance, in two important categories, coal and steel, the value of British exports was higher while the volume was lower and in the most important group of all—cotton piece goods—both volume and value were down. It is, however, permissible to regard the increase in imports as partly the result of the building up of stocks in this country to a more adequate level. For instance, the substantial increases in imports of rubber, tea and tobacco have almost certainly not passed into immediate consumption. The higher imports of iron and steel products, too, are necessary to tide over a temporary shortage. There is some satisfaction also to be derived from the fact that overseas trade does not appear to have suffered any further shrinkage during March. Present evidence suggests that it has found stability at the lower levels.
Previous page
