COSY FRENCH BEDFELLOWS
Sam White finds that the
Right's narrow victory has given Mitterrand a chance to be generous
Paris THE principal winner of last Sunday's French parliamentary elections — morally, tactically and strategically — was the Presi- dent of the Republic, Francois Mitterrand. Realising that a Socialist victory was out of the question, it was he who changed the voting system and introduced proportional representation in order to reduce the scale in parliamentary terms of the swing to the right. This worked better than even he might have expected, because as it turned out the parliamentary opposition very nearly failed to get an outright majority at all.
Instead, therefore, of the combined Chirac and Giscard forces having a com- fortable majority of 30 or 40 they have a distinctly uncomfortable one of only three or four and are dependent even for this on a small group of independent right-wing deputies who normally vote with them but are not subject to party discipline. This is enough to form a government and claim victory but it is noticeable that those who are doing so are smiling, as the song has it, with tears in their eyes, while the allegedly defeated Socialists are grinning broadly in anticipation of a return bout in the not so distant future. They have emerged from the elections as the strongest single politic- al party in France and with 32 per cent of the vote they have laid a solid foundation for a likely Mitterrand victory in the presidential elections in two years' time.
For it is now virtually certain that Mitter- rand will stand for a second term, having first taken the precaution of reducing that term from seven to five years. Meanwhile the new government will be confronted by rivalries within its own ranks, among its own crop of potential presidential candi- dates, which could have serious conse- quences for the cohesion of what is after all a coalition which has come apart once before and could once again come apart under the strain of office. Two of its three principal rivals have already been guilty of a form of republican regicide — Giscard when he helped defeat de Gaulle in the referendum which led to his resignation, and Chirac when he helped in Giscard's defeat in the presidential elections of 1981. Then there is Raymond Barre, who has some old scores to settle with both.
Meanwhile, to revert to Mitterrand, he has done himself a power of good by the prompt way he has accepted the emer- gence of a new parliamentary majority without any niggling reference to its wafer- thin character and his equally prompt promise to choose without delay a prime minister from its ranks. His invitation to M. Chirac again does credit to the Presi- dent for his open manner of dealing with the situation. Instead of engaging in intri- gues on the subject he has made the most obvious choice — that is to say the leader of the biggest party in the new governing coalition. Not only has he behaved openly in the matter without seeking to exploit rivalries but he has even in the best manner of a constitutional monarch wished good luck to the new team. It has left his enemies, especially in the press, almost speechless with surprise. Such a spirit of noblesse oblige will of course have to be repaid by a proper recognition of presidential prerogatives in matters concerning defence and foreign policy, nor will the new government feel quite as free as it might have imagined itself to be before the elections to undo much of the Socialist legislation, particu- larly in matters relating to labour relations Nor is it likely to go in for large-scale privatisation as it promised to do in the more heady days of the election cam- paign. There are limits at which the Prest" dent can stop them in their tracks by the threat of dissolution or even an early presidential election. The outlook therefore for the moment is for a cosy cohabitation rather than a rough one. Much will depend on whether the ileW government seeks to change the election laws, as it has promised to do, back to the old two-round system of constituency v°t ing. If it can do that, then obviously it %will be able to face the President with greater confidence, but there is a strong possibility that its feeble majority will prevent it at any rate at this stage, from carrying our such a measure. It must be a bitter thought and one which will long rankle among the new majority that its victory would have been almost as massive a one as that of the Socialists in 1981 had the election been held under the old system. Meanwhile they must derive such con- solation as they can from the fact that ht Mitterrand has had to pay a certain Price for the benefits he derived from int°. ducing proportional representation. This price has been to open the doors of parliament to a solid block of M. Le Pens extreme-right National Front. Over 30 to number, they will be large enough qualify for all the privileges of an estair lished political party with the right to sit on parliamentary commissions and to have their due share of speaking time on Par liamentary debates. They will constitute t both an unpleasant nuisance and the threat of a growing menace. Some segments
the respectable Right which suffered elec- torally from their intrusion may be temp- ted into open flirtation with them. With just under ten per cent of the vote, they matched exactly that of the Communists.
What was something of a triumph for them, however, was a sickening humilia- tion for a party which only ten years ago could be certain of winning just over 20 per cent of the vote. The Communist decline is now clearly irreversible — they lose votes when in government and lose them when they decide to pull out and go into opposi- tion. It is hard to see how Georges Mar- chais can continue as party leader much longer, but one must never underestimate the miracles that 'democratic centralism' can work in keeping Communist leaders alive.
What the Right loses to the National Front the Socialists gain from Communist losses seems one of the lessons of these elections. In conclusion, one ought to mention one reason why the Right did not do as well as expected and that is the anti-Mitterrand and anti-Socialist cam- paign waged by the Hersant press and especially by its principal organ Le Figaro. This was of a viciousness and mendacity Which shamed a once great newspaper.
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