Tackling Burma
From Derek Tonkin
Sir: In 'Burma Jungle' (15 May) John Bercow and Caroline Cox provide a harrowing account of human-rights abuses against the non-Burman national groups in Burma.
However, their proposals for action are doomed from the start. China (which has supplied over $2 billion in arms since 1988) and Russia (which in 2001 supplied ten MiG-29 Fulcrum fighter aircraft) would veto any resolution tabled in the UN Security Council to impose an arms embargo. France would probably abstain. This would make the US and the UK look very foolish — so much so that it is highly unlikely that they would sponsor any such resolution in the first place.
The EU could certainly impose both trade and investment sanctions, but this would not seriously damage the Burmese subsistence economy, which is increasingly dominated by Chinese, ASEAN, Korean, Indian and Japanese interests. The junta is likely to react by applying even tighter economic and financial controls, to the benefit of its cronies, to the detriment of private entrepreneurs who could be the backbone of economic and political liberalism in the country, and to the further impoverishment of all the Burmese nationalities.
In short, the actions proposed by John Bercow and Caroline Cox are likely not to weaken but to strengthen the regime. Our Asian-Pacific competitors would be delighted for us to give them a free hand to operate in Burma, and to complete the takeover of Western businesses and industries which is already well under way.
The better and more constructive approach would be to encourage Burma's close neighbours in China, India and the ASEAN to join the EU in a more proactive, critical engagement with Burma. Our Prime Minister may well have suggested something on these lines to his Chinese counterpart when they met in London last week and human rights were discussed. A united effort is needed.
It is pointless and irresponsible, out of sheer outrage, to advocate policies which are only likely to make matters worse and to entrench the junta in power, while limiting even further our own waning influence. We need to get Burma, like Iraq, on to the first rung of the democracy ladder. It is that first step which is always the most difficult.
Derek Tonkin British Ambassador to Thailand 1986-89 Worplesdon, Surrey
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