POLITICS
Why that interview with Mr Humphrys will be seen to have done the trick
SION SIMON
The extremist wing of the Blairite prae- torian guard is saying that the Formula One fiasco is a blessing in disguise. And what a disguise; the Minister without Port- folio may have called it a bushfire, but it has certainly managed to present itself as something of an inferno. The ultras do have more specific meanings in mind, though. The first and most startling is a belief that the Prime Minister's manage- ment of the last few weeks' events has enhanced his stature.
True, Mr Blair's performance with John Humphrys on the BBC's On the Record was outstanding. Commentators who have adversely criticised him for the detail, sometimes vague and inconsistent, of what he said have missed the point. It is the broad-brush messages and semaphore sig- nals which are important, and on this level the interview was a triumph. In terms of tone and language the PM got it exactly right, exuding humility, contrition and hurt integrity. The vast bulk of the population will not, as the press do, immediately mark down a discount because they know that such was his only intention. It was a bravu- ra performance which will come to be seen largely to have done the trick.
Which does not alter the absurdity of arguing that the performance was so good that it is a positive bonus for Labour that the opportunity arose. There are only so many times — about nine, I'd say — that you can do that sort of thing and get away with it; ask John Major. Mr Blair has now used up one of his lives, which must be wor- rying barely six months after a landslide.
More credible is the Blairite storm troop- ers' claim that the embarrassment of the Ecclestone affair is a price worth paying for its advancement of the sacred cause of state funding of political parties. There do exist Blairite ne plus super-ultras who hold that state funding, unpopular as it is, will not be necessary in the golden glow of the next century's New Politics, where Labour, sub- suming the Liberals, has gobbled up such a gargantuan portion of the centre ground as to permanently marginalise the Conserva- tives. In this scenario, New Labour, as the natural party of government, attracts all the business bucks which used to go to the Tories. This is not only rose-coloured, it is based on a misconception. Captains of industry do not give to the Tories because of what the party might deliver for the corn- pany, but because they all went to the same schools.
The mainstream Blairite view, which includes the PM himself, is that state fund- ing is the only realistic route for Labour once the financial ties with the trade unions have been cut. Lest anyone be in any doubt, complete severance of all institutional links between Labour and the trade unions is a non-negotiable Blairite article of faith. Logically, however, it is not substantively integral to the New Labour project, and as such the unions plan to fight bitterly to retain some formal link. Their view is that it is only Mr Blair himself and his immedi- ate lieutenants who are implacably commit- ted to cutting what they see as a Gordian knot. If the unions can only weather the current storm, they believe their history will be safe in a post-Blairite future. This is probably true: there is nobody else in the Blair Cabinet who as leader would feel it necessary completely to detach from the unions.
Unfortunately for them, though, and contrary to the understandably growing general perception, Mr Blair is a train not easily derailed. Furthermore, those of his allies who have been saying that the Eccle- stone affair is just the boost the Blairites needed to put an end to the mutual misery of their relationship with the unions are right. A broad-ranging enquiry has been announced, and it is now possible to imag- ine the government convincing the nation that it would be a good idea for many mil- lions of pounds of taxpayers' money to be given to political parties. That was not true a month ago.
The third positive side-effect of the motor-racing muddle identified by the newly Panglossian New Labour hardliners is that it marks unequivocally the end of the honeymoon. My own perception was that the fluffy pink wonderland that Britain seemed to become after 1 May faded quickly to the more familiar grey following Labour's non-announcement that we would Apparently, when a Mercedes turns over, it's had it.' not after all be seeking early entry to EMU. At the time I argued that this was a good thing, not just because pink is an unpleas- ant backdrop against which to live one's life, but because of the dangers surround- ing the inevitable tendency of the pro- longed honeymooner to lose sight of what a difficult, stressful place the real world can be. The hope was that, shaken out of any possible complacency by their difficulties over EMU, the Labour leadership would regroup, refocus and be a better govern- ment as a result.
By extension of that logic, of course, the super-Blairites are right: if the EMU furore was a good thing, then Berniegate can be little short of a political miracle. In reality, lessons have been learned from the past week and the government will regroup. The honeymoon really is over, and we should be looking to Labour to settle down into a less flamboyant, more competent, post-nuptial rhythm.
As to what Labour strategists have learned, there are four main lessons. First, not being corrupt is not enough when you are the government; it has to be impossible for anyone to have corrupted you. Second, you have to be tighter and more disciplined in your daily life in government than in opposition. Things like the motor madness rarely happen to parties in opposition, but when they do they are easy to manage. You just call together the three principal perpe- trators (there are rarely more), invent an exact sequence of events which meets all possible objections, memorise it and stick to it unfailingly. This always works, but it is not so simple in office when there are out- siders and civil servants and minutes to take into account. Third, the Tories are beginning to get the hang of opposition. Recently they have kept their heads down and their mouths shut, leaving the press to get on with harassing Labour and only pop- ping up to stoke the fire when necessary. All credit to John Maples, the only man on the Tory front bench who really under- stands the media. The final lesson is the hardest. To govern is to be on the wrong end of a guerrilla war: some days you are just driving along minding your own busi- ness, when out of the blue someone fires a bazooka from a bridge and before you know what has hit you, you are in flames.
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