THE CHAOS IN CHINA.
[To THE EDITOE 07 TUE "SPECTATOR."]
SIR,—During the last few years the Press at home, and par- ticularly the Radical section of it, has acquired the unfor- tunate habit of discussing political questions entirely from the point of view of principle instead of investigating carefully into the merits of a case.
Thus within two days of the outbreak of the revolution in China we End the Westminster Gazette laying down in most emphatic terms that foreign intervention would in no Circumstances be allowed ; an equally premature, unwise, and, in general, uncalled-for declaration.
Yuan Shih-kai has, after fatal delay, come up to Peking and formed a Cabinet of sorts. The majority of papers in Europe, in their usual ignorance of Far Eastern affairs, at once assumed that all was finished and that he would re-establish order and peace in the Empire. If that were so—and only those who are entirely out of touch with Chinese affairs can hope so—he would be an even more remarkable man than the newspapers have already made him out to be.
For the situation at the present moment is simply chaotic. It is no longer a question of victory for Chinese or Manchus, for Republican or Constitutional Government, but now a question of whether the Chinese Empire will not break up altogether. At the present time we can identify no fewer than five different currents in the whirlpool of madness in which the Empire is plunged, viz. :—
(1) Peking, with what is left of Government authority, a few loyal troops, and the large Manchu population. (2) The actual revolutionaries in very loose combination in most of the towns on the Yangtse with the exception of Nanking, which is still held by the Imperialists. (3) The mutinous armies of the North, the only real fighting force in the country, but now quite out of hand, • without discipline, unwilling to shed their blood for either side, but anxious to make as much as they can out of the chaotic situation. (4) Provinces which have declared themselves independent republics, but are not under- taking offensive movements against Peking nor combining with the Yangtse revolutionaries, viz., Shantung, Manchuria, Fukhien, Yunnan. (5) Provinces where there is •no govern- ment of any kind any more, and anarchy pure and simple prevails, such as Suchuan, Kuangsi, Shensi.
To make the confusion worse confounded we have two other most important factors tending to prolong the struggle. Firstly, owing to the floods all over the country this summer food is already very dear, and a famine is threatening the whole Empire for the winter. Secondly, the funds of both the chief parties are running low. This latter makes it still more impossible for either side to gain a sufficient superiority to win over the other parties either by negotiation or the sword. Taking all these circumstances into consideration, it would be most interesting to hear how the armchair politicians at home would advise Yuan Shih-kai to carry out his herculean task. Perhaps, if the rest of the world were willing to wait, after years of bloodshed and anarchy, two or three small States might evolve out of the present chaos. But under actual conditions there are other factors which will not brook any great delay in putting a stop to the present anarchy and chaos into which the Empire is dis-
solving : these are the foreign interests in China, which are affected chiefly in the following four ways :— (1) Stoppage of trade. This hits Japan worse than any other Power, and she is just the State for whom it would be easiest and who is most anxious to intervene in the present crisis. (2) Payment of interest on foreign loans and of the indemnities. For the moment the Custom receipts are still covering this expenditure, but as trade decreases day by day and port after port is lost to the Imperial Government, these receipts will rapidly disappear. (3) There is the question of allotment of foreign loans and payment of foreigners in the em- ployment of the Chinese Government, if the various provinces are going to remain independent for any length of time. This latter will become a most vital question very shortly, if the Peking Government, seeing the foreign Powers acknowledge the independent republics, repudiates its liabilities in this direction.
There is the most important question of all—the safety of foreigners in the interior. Already news has arrived from two provinces that a number of foreigners have been killed. I am not going to enter into a discussion here as to the amount of blame the Peking Legations and their various foreign offices have to bear for the loss of innocent lives that has already taken place. Already at the commencement of the revolu- tion a large number of foreigners out here foresaw that such massacres were bound to take place unless steps were taken to stop the unlimited spread of the revolution. Now, however, it would appear that the Western so-called Great Powers will no longer be able, however much they might desire it, to con- tinue in their present callous and indifferent attitude towards the fate of their nationals. For, presumably, even in this cos- mopolitan age the protection of their own people still remains the raison &etre of all Legations and foreign offices. And though we and the Americans, for the sake of trade and " peace at any price," may still manage to adhere to the masterful policy of doing nothing, there are other Powers which will not remain quite so indifferent to the safety of their people.
In these circumstances it would appear to me that foreign intervention must inevitably take place unless peace and order are established at once all over the country. And this, as I have tried to show above, is now almost impossible. The longer foreign intervention is delayed the more difficult and more lasting it will be. And it would appear that this un- fortunate country instead of entering on a new era of pro- sperity and progress, as promised by the newspapers, will by this revolution be retarded for years in its development, if
not break up altogether.—I am, Sir, &c., Z. Peking.
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