The turf
Go for the gamble
Robin Oakley
Attendance at the G8 summit in the much-maligned city of Birmingham, which had only a week before survived the Euro- vision Song Contest, proved a reminder that Brummie humour is as sharp as any- thing you will find in Britain. Thus the lady in the elegant Centenary Square fountain has become known as 'The Floozie in the Jacuzzi'. Now the big question in racing also involves a prominent female: are we going to have a filly in the Derby? Sheikh Mohammed and his Godolphin team have just about a week to decide whether to spend £75,000 on supplementing the mag- nificently facile 1,000 Guineas winner Cape Verdi for the colts Classic instead of letting her take her place in the Oaks.
Deciding whether or not to risk an extra 750 big ones probably affords Sheikh Mohammed about as much mental effort as it costs me to decide in the morning whether or not to risk the summer suit. And if she were mine, I would not hesitate.
I will admit to some prejudice. Faithful readers will have noted that the Godolphin filly was named as one of my Ten to Follow after John Reid told me how much he regretted her departure from Peter Chap- ple-Hyam's stable. I have never started counting my money so early in a race as when she coasted up to the leaders in the 1,000 Guineas, only rueing the fact that she started on the day at 100-30 and I had backed her ante-post at 2-1.
But there are other reasons why I would be tempted if I were the Sheikh to go for the gamble. Godolphin have been insistent all season that their fillies are better than their colts this year. In Bahr, who ran such an impressive trial in York's Musidora Stakes last week against Midnight Line, they have a potential Oaks winner even if they do take Cape Verdi out of the fillies' race. And on the evidence of this year's tri- als it looks like being a sub-standard Derby field. Xaar has not been pleasing at home and has been taken out of the race. Gul- land only just scraped home from The Glow-Worm in the Chester Vase.
After High Rise had won the Lingfield Derby Trial, Luca Cumani was in no rush to suggest it was a good enough performance to put him in the field for Epsom. It was a decent time but High Rise is no ICahyasi. And although some leading contenders suf- fered in the scrimmaging during the Dante at York won by Saratoga Springs it does not look as though Dr Fong is good enough or as if Border Arrow will stay the trip.
The only Derby prep race performance trial which impressed me was the win for Paul Cole's Courteous in Sandown's Clas- sic Trial. But my ante-post money is down the pan because he has now been routed for the French equivalent instead. In short, I do not see a colt who has the beating of Cape Verdi with the fillies allowance if the Sheikh decides to let her take them on. The precocity she has shown in her two- year-old career, winning the Chesham at Royal Ascot and the Lowther Stakes last August, even the victory over a mile in the Guineas, were all a bonus. The daughter of Caerleon, who died earlier this year and who sired the previous Oaks winner Lady Carla, is bred to do the business at serious distances. He won the Derby, the Irish Derby and the King George and while her dam may have been of little account I think Cape Verdi could turn out to be the star we need this year.
The last filly to win the Derby may have been Fifinella in 1916. But of some 60 fil- lies to have run in the race six have won. And of the two who have tried since the war, Nobiliary finished second. If I were in the Godolphin team I would be urging the Sheikh to let her go for it. A man who com- plains about the paucity of owners' rewards should surely not turn up his best chance yet of collecting million-plus for the Vodafone Derby.
Incidentally, apprentice Neil Pollard, my find of the season, rode a neat race to win the sprint on High Magic on Derby Trial day at Lingfield, having clocked a 40-1 sec- ond on the same horse at Newmarket the week before. The next week he rode his first double. Other trainers are jumping in now to engage the services of David Elsworth's 71b-claimer. You heard about him here first.
Robin Oakley is political editor of the BBC.
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