BRIDGE
Not Hobson's
Andrew Robson
HAVE YOU heard the Rolls-Royce prob- lem? You are told that there is a Rolls behind one of three doors. You select Door A (at random). Someone who knows the location of the car then opens one of the other doors behind which he knows it is not, say Door B. He then offers you a choice — do you stick to your original Door A, or change to Door C?
Actually you should change to Door C an application of the complicated-sounding Principle of Restricted Choice (PRC). Try is several times.
PRC has huge ramifications at the bridge table, stating that 'When one opponent has played a critical card in a suit, his partner is twice as lucky to have the adjacent card in that suit'. For an exposition on the subject, read the classic Expert Game by Terence Reese, first published in 1958.
Dealer South North-South Vulnerable The Bidding
South West North East
2. - 24 pass pass 34 pass 4+ pass
5. pass pass pass
3NT would have been much easier, and perhaps South should have gambled on thee situation and bid it in preference to 34. West led 4Q against 5+, and declarer won 4K and led V5. West correctly grabbed his VA and continued with 4J. Relieved that East followed to the second 4, declarer won 4A and led .A. West played 49 and the question is: what should declarer do next?
Remembering PRC, declarer realised that West's play of 49 made it twice as likely that East held +10. The winning play is to continue with a low O. East beats dummy's 47 with a 410 and switches to ♦ 9 (having no more 4s — a certainty on the bidding), and declarer is in control. He rises with 4A, crosses to +8 and cashes • KQJ, discarding 46 and •108.
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