THE WINTER CURTAIN-RAISER
By STRATEGICUS
It is only a week since I pointed out that some parts of the Dnieper had not yet even been reached by the Russians, and one of the sectors, the most important indeed, is the stretch between Orsha and Rogachev. To the north of Nevel runs the main railway from Moscow through Velikie-Luki to Riga, and it is this that gives the significance to the statement front the German side that the Russians are trying to fan out towards the north-west. The stretch of the main lateral railway that connects Nevel with Zhlobin is perhaps as important as any on the Russian front, .and it is this that gives the present offensive the character of a curtain-raiser to the main winter. offensive. Zhlobin, Mogilev, Orsha and Vitebsk are necessary for any advance towards the west, and as far es Orsha they entail the fate of most of the Dnieper line yet in German hands. This is not to say the present attack is one of limited objectives necessarily. If the conditions seem favourable the advance will be pressed, and there can be little doubt that the defence will be proportionate to the stake involved.
But, at the moment, it is less the local effect than its influence on the general situation that seems the more important. This sector of the front was bound to come to life at the appropriate moment. It was only the order of attack that remained in doubt, and that the advance should be first made Here is due not only io the necessity of achieving positions from which to launch the general winter offensive but also to the fact that the German main con- centration has been operating in the south. One effect which the Russians clearly wish to achieve is the drawing in of local reserves and, perhaps, reserves from the south. It is the sector between Kiev and the sea that remains the vital matter. We cannot be sure that Manstein has yet abandoned his attack on the Kiev salient ; but while it has been dragging on without securing any strategic result, while it has been suffering losses that cannot easily be afforded, Koniev has been developing his thrust towards Smyela and Kirovograd ; and although both sides have shown a remarkable coolness in their struggle on this broad sector, it becomes increas- ingly problematical how long Manstein dare keep Hoth's Panzer Army about Kiev when _this thrust farther to the east is not securely contained. A German commentator on Monday night said that the attack on the salient had been abandoned and the force transferred towards the Kirovograd sector,' and the sharp blow in the Korosten area is not inconsistent with some such movement.
The Korosten area represents the northern side of the wedge which Manstein has driven into the•salient, and any relaxation of strength there will be followed by a swift and devastating Russian counter- attack. The Nevel offensive shows, if the demonstration were needed, that the Russians have the troops to strike in overwhelming
strength where 'they wish, and there is no evidence that the Germans can do more than deal with one danger at a time. For some
months, it has been apparent that they have to choose between alternatives, and, although the success of their defensive has been astonishing, it may easily have escaped notice that they are living dangerously. They are still so intent on holding on to every mile • of alien territory that they are content to shoulder the risks involved. Notice the sequence of events. The Russian threat first became obvious some time ago when the bridgehead south of Kremenchug -was developed. The Germans struck back at Krivoi Rog, and for the time were able to secure a respite. The Russians, however, went on with the exploitation of their multiple attack on the force in the eastern bend and compelled the Germans to abandon a stretch of the river-line. They then broke through at Cherkassv and extended their thrust towards Znamenka. This, too, was temporarily blocked. Then the Russians struck towards Smyela and Kirovograd, and a fresh reinsurance had to be provided. At Smyela, as at Kirovo- grad, the Russians threaten to irrupt towards the south-west, towards the Odessa- railway at Vapnyarka. The Germans are at present attempting tc hold the two new thrusts, but it is the same threat that faces them. Here, in the mêlée of intense fighting with tanks and infantry, one can discern the persistent threat to encircle the troops farther east. It has been held as it seemed to develop at fresh points, but it has never been allowed to die down. When it is checked at one point it revives under somewhat worse con- ditions for the enemy at another, and it may be that it is under such conditions that the decisive battle below the Pripet will develop.
Can Manstein maintain the full force of Hoth's Panzer Army in the region of Kiev while farther east Koniev is periodically driving fresh wedges into the dam that protects the flank and rear of the units in the Nikopol area? Can he do so when the armies north of the Pripet may be calling for relief? These are the problems that face the German Staff as the winter offensive approaches, and they are not easy to solve. It can readily be seen what it is that Hitler wishes to do, and it can be appreciated that his generals are carrying out an almost impossible order with great skill. We can gather from the sequence of events, and from the conditions under which the Germans are content to face the stern trial of a third winter offensive, how much still remains to be done before the German armies are defeated.
• Behind the curtain the scene-shifters are busily at work preparing for the next act. We can only guess at the resources with which Stalin will embark upon it. But we can discern the calm confidence with which he is facing the immediate future, and we have been assured that the armies trained for the winter offensive amount to a force that should be able to put an end to the German stand in Russia. It has been said that the fresh armies amount to as many as two millions, and we know that they. are perfectly equipped and trained in the latest methods of winter warfare. This fighting about and below Kiev, therefore, can only be taken as a prelude to the great clash. Whether the attempt to break through to Kiev will be resumed, whether we have yet seen anything like the full force of the blow Koniev has it in his power to deliver, whether Manstein will attempt much longer to maintain himself about Nikopol, when he will fall back to the Bug and farther west—only the future can show.
Somehow the Nevel attack will influence the development of events. It will certainly distract, it may divert, forces from the Dnieper front. It seems inevitable that it is there that the main clash will take place ; and can one imagine that Manstein, after five weeks striving to cut off the salient, can now achieve anything beyond the extension of a tactical success? As at Kursk, the infinite patience of the Russians permits the enemy to develop his plans until he has expended his full force and wholly committed himself. It is only then that Stalin is accustomed to launch his cougter- blow. But he is far from idle elsewhere.. As we have seen, it is not only in the bend of the river that he has set fresh pieces in motion. It is certain that there are other pieces yet to be moved, fresh problems to be posed for the Germans. But now, on only a small part of the front, are they still holding the winter quarters prepared for the supreme test. The Nevel curtain-raiser has robbed them of some of the few that remained in their hands, and they must now decide where to attempt to make a stand and when to take up the position. If they delay too long they may never reach it.
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