WHAT WILL THE UNITED STATES DO ?
THEimmediate policy of President Wilson is one of the most interesting subjects of speculation at the moment. Will he go to war with Germany ? Does he want to go to war, thinking it the only possible solution of the tangle ? If so, why is he waiting ? Is he testing the state of opinion behind him before he commits himself ? Or does he still hope to keep out of the war ? And if so, does he believe that the principles which he has often and eloquently reiterated can be saved for the world ? Such are a few of the questions which are daily asked by all European observers of the American situation.
In our judgment, it may fairly be assumed that Mr. Wilson does not want to go to war, and will keep out of it if he can, for if he had wanted to go to war he would not be at peace now. It follows that he believes that the principles of humanity and the rights of neutrals, which 11 has boldly asserted to be a charge on the honour of America, can conceivably be safe- guarded without war. We are therefore brought by the elimina- tion of other questions to the question whether Mr. Wilson will be driven into war against his will. This might happen either through the definite acts of Germany or by the force of cir- cumstances. For our part, we think that in one way or another America will be forced into war ; but when we say " war " we do not necessarily mean war in the full sense in which it is understood and practised by the Allies. It is clear that now that the hands of Germany are tied, so that she cannot strike across the Atlantic, except by means of a stray submarine or a raider that slips through our blockade, such a thing as making war with limited liability is possible for the United States. The United States might enter into a hostile relation with Germany, which would be a degree or state of war, without any idea of ranging herself as a fully committed member of the Alliance. Indeed, when one comes to think of it, nothing is more certain from what Mr. Wilson has already said than that he would not join -the Allies as a fully coin- nutted partner. He has declared in Congress that the United states is concerned with methods of preserving peace after the war, and not with the actual settlement between the belli- gerents which will be reached at the end of the war. His state- ment, while definitely abandoning the ancient American theory of isolation, and as definitely acknowledging the concern of the United States in all international affairs, and therefore in the affairs of Europe, nevertheless stopped short of expressing an American opinion on the direct issues of the war. Such an attitude postulates a partnership of limited liability with the Allies in a political sense, even if in the end America should be driven step by step into military action scarcely distin- guishable from our own. No one, we suppose, to tak ?. a concrete example, could imagine the United States under- taking in a signed document to drive the Turks from Europe and place Russia at Constantinople. Yet without that and similar pledges she would never be a full member of the Alliance. From every point of view, then, we think that the United States will come into a state of war gradually, but that she will come into it only because she is forced either directly by Germany or by the intolerable indirect pressure of cir- cumstances brought about by German action. The present delay cannot last indefinitely.
Even if there were not the strong physical reasons which we have mentioned for believing that the United States will be drawn into active hostilities in some degree with Germany, we could not ignore arguments which point in the same direction drawn from Mr. Wilson's own record. In the strongest possible language' he has informed Germany that the United States expects her to abide by the laws and customs of humanity at sea, and to recognize the rights of neutrals, and that in the event of continuing to offend she will be held to strict accountability. It is true that in the course of the con- troversy Mr. Wilson abated his terms. He began by asserting the rights of all neutrals, and seemed to require due warning before merchantmen were sunk, and also provision for the safety of the crews and passengers. Later—there is no " latest," for the Lusitania ' controversy was never formally settled, and the promises made by Germany after the sinking of the ' Sussex' were apparently accepted as sufficiently covering the whole field—Mr. Wilson was content with some sort of provision for the lives of crews and passengers, and the word " American " appeared in the place of " neutrals " when the question of the safety of human life was being discussed. Let us however take the terms at their minimum, and assu me that Mr. Wilson will not move unless an American merchant vessel with an American crew is sunk without warning and several lives are lost. Such an event cannot be far distant unless (a) German submarines in practice deliberately leave American ships alone, although in theory the German purpose remains as before to sink anything and everything, or (b) by a run of chance American vessels (of which, after all, there arc not a great many that ply in the death zones) slip through the submarines without mishap. What would be the situation then ? It would surely be that Mr. Wilson, having explicitly asserted his responsibility, would be leaving every- thing to chance. He would be the inventor of a policy— hitherto unknown in the history of nations' dealings with one another—of results by accident. That is a negation, if not a repudiation, of statesmanship, and for our part we cannot believe in it as a credible line of action for Mr. Wilson. As we said last week, if Germany should really succeed by means of her policy of general assassination at sea, without happening to assassinate any Americans, Mr. Wilson would be looking on while the Devil was being enthroned. We know that Germany will not succeed, but we do not believe that Mr. Wilson wants to run even a small risk of such a disaster to mankind. Imagine what it would mean. It would mean that a victorious Germany would have wiped all international good faith off the slate. Might—lawless might—would be triumphant. Weak and small nations would groan under such bondage and oppression as would make the lamentations of Israel the melodies for all the world to sing. And the United States would be among the victims. Unless she were prepared to stand and fight she could not possibly be saved. But now if she decides in soma fresh material way to check Germany she may achieve with an expenditure of tens or hundreds of millions what later might cost her thousands of millions. We feel sure that Mr. Wilson knows that. His own words and his act of breaking ol diplomatic relations with Germany are evidence of it. It may be said that even now he will rather deal with Germany as he has just dealt with Mexico—wash his hands and leave her alone. But Germany and Mexico are very different Powers. The mischief Mexico can do is strictly limited, and Mr. Wilson may think that the American lives lost in that tortured country are after all far fewer than would be lost in a war. But. that argument does not apply to Germany, whose bid is nothing less than to make her writ run through all the world.
The Allies have never asked America to come to their assistance in arms ; they have had some good reasons, both sentimental and practical, for hoping that she would keep out of the war. If we believe now that she will take some kind of hostile action against Germany, it is not because our belief coincides with our hopes. We believe what we believe because we see no other prospect.. It may be that the congestion of American shipping may force Mr. Wilson's hand, for a partial paralysis in the docks is temporary evidence that Germany can intimidate the greatest of neutrals. But, on the whole, we expect that some more sudden and violent demonstration of German violence will cause Mr. Wilson to summon the American nation to action. When that happens we shall be able to say that Germany, among her other diplomatic achievements, has reunited the Anglo-Saxon world. Already Mr. Wilson's act in breaking with Germany has enormously improved British feeling towards America. If we are wrong about tho course of events, and Mr. Wilson after all sees a way of serving his principles while refraining from any hostile act, the rela- tions of Britain and America will not drop back into their former uneasy and even dangerous state. His active protest in a moral cause has put our relations on a new plane. lie has at least done what we all hoped he would do when Belgium was invaded.
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