South Africa (2)

Zephyr of change

Frederic Bennett

When Harold MacMillan made his famous Pronouncement in 1960 that a wind of Change was sweeping through Africa neither he nor anyone else could reasonably have contemplated how far and how fast the wind would blow, how many vortexes of human misery and how many Wastelands of repression it would leave in its wake. On the other hand few people Would have thought that there would or Could, be such enduring near-total resistance to the onward march of black African nationalism.

In South Africa, to narrow the question Specifically, an entrenched, determined bloc of four million Europeans cannot be constrained by force — unless with the aid of massive external military intervention --to hand over power to the African population, even though this in all amounts to sixteen million, divided between huge rural largely undeveloped areas and European-dominated townships. To reduce the prospect, however far off, of a simple black-white confrontation, there exist of course, also, in the nation's makeup Indians, Cape Coloureds and others of mixed blood amounting to nearly three million, who are no more attracted (particularly so since General Amin's outrages) to black majority rule than to a continuance of white minority rule .

Having pointed to these facts one could be forgiven for wondering — taking into account the well-known objection to any type of compromise by the Afrikaaner — why it is that there are nevertheless . emerging perceptible signs, if not yet of 'the wind of change' reaching the Republic, at least of a zephyr. South Africans in conversation prefer to describe their obvious anxieties about their country's growing isolation in the world by talking of re-thinking rather than of yielding anything.

To ascribe this re-thinking to a growing ferment of dissatisfaction with the established fortress mentality,' or vice versa, is rather like choosing which came first, the chicken or the egg. Certainly both processes are under way. Back in 1960 there was hardly an English-speaking student at Stellenbosch University, the educational foster-parent of succeeding Boer Prime Ministers. Today no less than 20 per cent are English-speaking students; and when Dr Banda visited there to explain that his hostility to apartheid did not mean an enmity towards white people, together with an understanding that change was more likely to come about through reason rather than force, he received an enthusiastic ovation. Subsequently nearly 10 per cent of the students have indicated support for the Progressive Party, which has never yet managed to send more than one MP to Pretoria.

If one seeks to answer why the erosion of the old " concede-nothing " attitude is beginning among the young, there is no doubt at all that, apart from the fact that radicalism is traditionally a feature of youth, the ostracism of South Africa in international sport and the difficulties of travel have all contributed to a readiness to look at other ways of developing their multi-national society in the future. Such considerations are undoubtedly more influential than external threats of military or economic blockade, which only serve to

rally everyone in defence of their country, in exactly the same way as sianctions directed against Rhodesia have strengthened Mr Ian Smith's standing with the European electorate as a whole.

Another liberalising stimulus is provided, by the virtual collapse of the policy of " dialogue " with other African states.

There is little hope that the relationship with Malawi will long outlast the departure from the scene of Dr Banda.

Lesotho is now much less co-operative than it used to be and the same applies to Swaziland. Madagascar has ended dialogue abruptly, and ties with Mauritius are certainly getting no stronger. Elsewhere in Africa there is only one former French colony that still openly stands up for dialogue. Even the local Portuguese, even

though they value South African support, seem to be getting increasingly fed-up with being identified as racialist colonialists because of their collaboration with the Republic.

A realisation is also growing in the Republic that things cannot much longer go on as they are in business, and particularly big business, circles. For the declared, aim of seeking to drive urban Africans back to far-away Bantustans can only retard the rate of industrial growth. Indeed this contradiction between what is needed if South African prosperity is to flourish, on the one hand, and the implementation of the political theory of separate development, on the other, is forcing South African employers to obtain permission to bring in more Africans from outside the Republic to make up the resultant loss of their own native-born black working force!

Faced with the facts of life, Nationalist and United Party politicians of the 'old school ' realise that, while Bantustans undoubtedly provide a valuable outlet for African political development, this can never really solve the problem of what to do, inside the concept of 'separate development' with a large and growing detribalised African urban population: even though few will admit it in public and are highly unlikely to do so, at least before the next election is out of the way. For while it is difficult to forecast how Bantustans will develop, I have found only one person with knowledge. of the subject, ready to predict that more than eight million Africans could ever be accommodated geographically, earning a livelihood within their own homelands.

Hence, even taking today's total blackwhite population ratio as constant, which • it certainly is not, there will always be in the so-called European areas twice as many black Africans as Europeans. If, of course, the present or prospective political leaders could bring themselves to welcome to their side of the barricades the Cape Coloureds and the Indians, an overall nearbalance of black and non-black might conceivably be achieved. Yet, although some leaders talked to me vaguely of such a step one day becoming necessary if their own 'racial group' was not be numerically swamped, nowhere among Nationalists did I find any appreciation of the urgency of trying to get away from their present concept of 'Europeans and the rest.' Some even went farther to isolate themselves by the artificial creation of homelands for those of mixed blood.

Faced with a reluctance to give way on theories so long held and nurtured — but realising that not even their obdurate defence of what they think is essential to their survival can indefinitely maintain a negative •status quo — party leaders are hard at work preparing a revised blueprint for the future that they think can make the best contribution towards solving an intractable problem, without losing the support of the present European electorate. This is no easy task.

Sir Frederic Bennett is Conservative MP for Torquay