First Kennedy Round
DONALD GORDON writes from Geneva : The Kennedy Round has survived, but only in the most negative sense. Six days of plen- ary bombast and remarkably hesitant private con- sultations by the trade ministers at the meeting of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade lave served only to emphasise the fundamental Inreadiness of major protagonists to approach the basic policy decisions necessary to transform talks into tariff cuts.
For their part, the Americans—clearly haunted by indecision about General de Gaulle's inten- tions—are still clutching the straws of their domestic problems. Loath to risk politically unpalatable concessions (it must be remembered that 1964 is a presidential election year) that could lead to charges of frittering away the bargaining power of their present high tariff categories, they have taken refuge in, as one delegate noted wryly, 'positive immobility.' Thus, the most they could do for a com- munique was to restate their starting plan for linear tariff reductions of up to 50 per cent and agree to further talks by the negotiating commis- ,ion.
The European Six, on the other hand, have _merged with appetites sharpened and confidence enhanced. To their own surprise and the Amer-- sans' evident consternation, little of the forecast Jisarray on trade policy within the Six proved relevant to the Kennedy Round. Even the perambulating Dr. Erhard came to admit to his colleagues that the French line (based on pre- liminary American concessions about peak tariffs) makes eminently good European sense. And despite the efforts of platoons of American lobbyists who roamed the Palais des Nations, it is now virtually certain that French terms will remain Six terms for the rest of the GAIT minuet.
If, in turn, this harmony carries over to the other main issue—American insistence that reductions on manufactured goods be accom- panied by the liberalisation of agricultural trade —the elements of a total impasse are present. This issue was successfully glossed over this week in the rush for a way of phrasing polite agreement on postponement. In the negotiating commission, the present generalities will assuredly founder on the rival American-European attitudes.
Other casualties were apparent from the pre- liminary encounters. Mr. Errol and his men, while performing with the impeccable assurance of Geneva regulars, found themselves in the indistinguished company of the secondary 'me too' satellites around the American camp. Forced by their own internal dynamics since Brussels into uncharacteristic fence-sitting lest their future in or out of the Common Market be comprom- ised, they could do little to mediate or moderate the big power positions. Even the Common- wealth ploy offered little that could compel attention. And, as for the less developed countries, There was the expected but no less disheartening reminder that many of the altruistic or en- lightened protestations of the `have' delegations won't stand up to definitive negotiations. Barter- ing on a commodity-by-commodity basis may have been abandoned as an overt principle, but it still remains at the root of both the American and the European jockeying. Thus the prospects— even with the urgency conceded—of their 'action programme' fade in so far as any GATT hopes are concerned.
Future developments turn almost wholly on the reactions of the Americans and the French to their Geneva confrontation. Provided that the shock of the tough and sophisticated bargaining involved doesn't produce another attack of isola- tionist hurt feelings, it is generally conceded that a Kennedy/de Gaulle summit holds the kcy- Without an effective rationalisation of their re- spective policy aims, the present drift not onlY in GATT but also in NATO and all the other institutions of the Western Alliance seems cer- tain to continue.
As one enlightened spectator put it this cek `The Americans will have to concede the point that the Six led by France are now a major world power which can negotiate from considerable strength. The Six, for their part, will have to concede that the assumption of world power carries some prices with it that must be paid.'
`God help National Nature Week.'
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