TOPICS OF THE DAY.
THE EFFERVESCENCE ON THE CONTINENT.
PRINCE BISMARCK is evidently so exultant over the political mistakes of the French Government, that he is warning France, with almo.-4 imprudent frankness, of the nature of those mistakes, even before, perhaps, it is quite too late for France to correct them. The article in the Nord Deutsche Gazette, which has caused such a sensation this week, against the anti-German spirit of the French Press, has been compared to the stream of water which the firemen apply to an incipient conflagration ; but where there is no incipient con- flagration to extinguish—and it is evident that in this ease there was none—we must look for other reasons for turning on the stream. So far as we can judge, the anti-German excesses of the French Press have been limited to insignificant papers of no influence at all in France, which the present condition of the French law on the Press does not enable the Govern- ment to stop. Prince Bismarck knows this well enough, and does not direct his semi-official organ to scatter anxiety over Europe, only in the hope of bridling the licence of the least important of the French prints. Probably he thinks, as the Due de Broglie evidently thinks, that France is now too completely committed to the false step she has taken in Anam and in Madagascar—to say nothing of her cumbersome engage- ments in Tunic—to take warning effectually by any shock which he may inflict on France; and, so thinking, he is well pleased to give a new stimulus to the general drift of his diplomacy in South-Eastern Europe, by exhibiting somewhat ostentatiously. to the whole Continent the helplessness and isolation of his former foe. That he really contemplates striking a fresh blow at France, we should be very slow in- deed to believe. The German people resent nothing more gravely than the great sacrifices which a mobilisation of their Army must entail upon them ; and the mobilisation of the Army for a plainly aggressive war would be a step which even Prince Bismarck would hardly dare to take. But, no doubt, he is watching with intense satisfaction the growing impression in Europe that in the German Foreign Office is the directing brain of European diplomacy ; and it may very well facilitate his plans for the centralisation of all its threads in Berlin, to give Europe this unexpected thrill through the medium of the inspired Press. There are rumours that General Thibaudin, whose very name is abhorrent to the Germans, since they accuse him of violating his parole in the Franco- German war, is talking of mobilising a corps on the eastern frontier of France, as a sort of test of the efficiency of the Army organisation. This proposal is, of course, especially offensive to Germany. It looks like a kind of tentative chal- lenge; and to say the very least, it would be a sign of growing self-confidence and self-reliance in France. Now, Germany does not approve of such signs from France, and the cold- water which she throws is not meant to reduce inflammatory symptoms, but to extinguish any reviving symptoms of
hope and self-respect. Prince Bismarck has just been convincing King Charles of Roumania and the King of Servia that if they want to prosper, they must cultivate the good-will of the German Powers, fraternise with Austria, and testify their loyalty to Berlin. The success of this policy would be more or less endangered by anything like the growth of a belief that France is recovering her old position. And especially would the growth of such an impression at St. Petersburg, be annoying and embarrassing to Prince Bismarck. Accordingly, he finds it timely to administer a sudden and humiliating snub to the self-esteem of the French Government. He is aware that at present there are little difficulties with England in relation to Madagascar, to say nothing of the permanent divergence of view with regard to Egypt, and that these difficulties make France more than usually reluctant to take need- less offence elsewhere. Then there is this unlucky policy in Anam, where France is engaged with a con- siderable Power, behind which stands a very formidable Power. The latest news shows that the French are not prospering in their operations at Hanoi, and that if they are to succeed in what they are attempting there, they must despatch very considerable reinforcements,—no one knows how many, if China should once openly avow her hostility. All this Prince Bismarck knows, and he could hardly have chosen a safer moment for a very sharp snub to France. The hands of France are, as it were, tied ; and Prince Bismarck is very conscious that if he can make all Europe feel how completely tied they are, he will prosper in his diplomacy beyond all that he has yet effected.
For our own parts, we are not quite sure that Prince Bis- marck has not played his last card too soon. We have no very high opinion of the sagacity of the present French Government, but M. Jules Ferry is an acute man, and whether M. Challemel-Lacour is so or not, M. Ferry will feel the signi- ficance of this mare of Prince Bismarck's, and if he is wise he will profit by it. Perhaps we may have already had a fore- taste of the result, in the very satisfactory assurances mentioned by Mr. Gladstone on Thursday night in relation to Admiral Pierre's high-handed dealings with Mr. Shaw. That is, no doubt, a small matter, but a straw will show how the wind.
blows, and if the wind blows strongly from the quarter from which, as we hope, it is now blowing in France, we shall see more important results yet of Prince Bismarck's warning. If M. Jules Ferry is a really wise statesman, he will do more than release Mr. Shaw, and draw the ties to England closer in every other possible way. He will insist on settling all this foolish business in Anoxia, even at some little sacrifice to French dignity, and in a way that is absolutely satisfactory to China, and on drawing out of all other disagreeable complications in the East as fast as possible. As for Madagascar, he will give up all idea of further conquest there, and make a treaty of peace with the Floras, on terms as satisfactory as possible to the French. And then he will let the world know that he is not going to coquette any more with a policy of colonial conquest—which is not, as we believe, half as flattering to French vanity as the statesmen who planned it suppose, —but to give himself heartily to the policy of strengthening in every way the French Administration, uniting, so far as it is possible, all republican parties, improving his relations with all foreign Powers, and indicating in every possible way that France is not disposed to sacrifice a tittle of French independ- ence and influence in Europe, for a policy of glitter and tinsel in the East. This is the drift of the comments in the shrewdest of all the French journals, and we are persuaded that it is the true lesson of the situation. As for the ferment among the smaller Powers in the Balkan, it is interesting enough to these smaller Powers themselves, and may betoken to some extent the extension of German influence,—an in- fluence which we do not grudge, except so far as it encourages Austria in a policy which must be fatal to the independence of the Slavonic populations. But Charles of Roumania and the King of Servia cannot threaten France ; and the more steadily France holds her own in Western Europe, the more confident will the smaller States of the Balkan peninsula be in their hope of playing off the influence of Russia against the influence of Austria. The paralysis of France means the paralysis of Russia. And the paralysis of Russia would have a very unsatisfactory effect on the ambitious designs of Austria in the South-east of Europe. All that, however, does not concern France directly. What does concern her directly is to make it inexpedient and even dangerous for Prince Bis- marck to threaten her openly in this humiliating fashion. For that purpose, she must surrender some of her very ques- tionable designs in the East, and come to a cordial under- standing with England on the question of Egypt,—a matter not at all difficult while Mr. Gladstone's Government remains in power. For our own parts, we hope that Prince Bismarck's warning may not be lost, and that it may have the very salutary effect which he least wishes,—that of inducing France to exchange a weak and showy policy, for a policy of calm concentration and dignified reserve.
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