TOPICS OF THE DAY.
THE NEW CRISIS.
TT is not easy to exaggerate the importance of the rupture of Lord Salisbury's Cabinet on the eve of the meeting of Parliament. Lord Randolph Churchill is not only the leader of the House of Commons, but is commonly held to be the only possible leader at the present moment. It is conceivable that a different view of the matter may be taken by some of the members of that Cabinet. Those who watched the im- pression made by Mr. Henry Matthews's speech in reply to Mr. Gladstone in September, may very likely hold that in the Home Secretary the Tories have a leader in reserve of a type not unlike Lord Randolph, of at least as much audacity, and of a stronger physique and a much larger range of knowledge. Still, no one knows whether Mr. Matthews, who owes his elevation to the Cabinet to Lord Randolph, will remain when Lord Ran- dolph goes. No one knows that Lord Salisbury will venture to offer the leadership to a Roman Catholic barrister, whose political reputation rests on a single speech. Indeed, strictly speaking, no one knows whether Lord Salisbury intends to accept Lord Randolph Churchill's resignation, though it would hardly, we suppose, have been announced as it has been announced, if there were any serious hesitation on that head. And we may be very sure that before resolving to try so hazardous an experiment as the patching-up of the Government without including in it any new element of strength, in face of a mutiny from amongst his own followers led by the most unscrupulous of the political free-lances of the day, Lord Salis- bury will reconsider his position, and endeavour to fortify it by cementing more closely the union with Lord Hartington, even if he does not press upon Lord Hartington once more the duty of accepting the first place, on the understanding that he will give Lord Hartington all the support in his power.
For no one can well exaggerate the gravity of the position. All Europe is arming for a struggle which may well prove the most serious struggle of modern times. That is the immediate cause assigned for Lord Randolph's resignation. The Administra- tion think that it is not a time when reductions in the Estimates can possibly be made. Lord Randolph Churchill, however, declines to be the spokesman of the Government on a matter on which he is no doubt convinced that the people will cry out against him. There is nothing on which the new con- stituencies have shown themselves so indifferent as foreign policy. They are far more willing to bear humiliations which the Parliament of the £10 householders would never for a moment have borne, than they are to vote liberal Army and Navy Estimates. Lord Randolph Churchill knows this, and pro- bably counts upon the support of a large portion of the Liberals and all the Irish in resisting high Army and Navy Estimates. Very probably he believes that Lord Salisbury cannot do with- out him ; and that if he insists on his resignation, he may soon come back at the head of a Government, instead of only as first lieutenant. He may have reason to think that Lord Hartington will as little approve of a War Budget, or something approach- ing to a War Budget, as the Tory Democrats. If that should prove to be so, there will be no resource except a new appeal to the country ; and who that watched the temper of the con- stituencies last year, will believe that an appeal to the country, made in bad times, in favour of high taxation, against the advice of a popular Chancellor of the Exchequer, and not approved by Lord Hartington, would be successful ? The mere suggestion of such an appeal is preposterous. And yet it is almost as difficult to know how the present Government is to hold on with Lord Randolph in Opposition, with the Parnellites in full cry against the Government, with Mr. Gladstone eager for a dis- solution, and with Mr. Labouchere threatening to join the Par- nellites in a policy of obstruction, as it is to conceive a successful appeal to the country against the economists, against the non- interventionists, and against the Home-rulers. So far as we can see, there never was a crisis more menacing than that with which Lord Randolph Churchill's sudden tender of his resignation has confronted us. If Lord Randolph's resigna- tion be not accepted, he becomes master of the situation at a most critical moment,—a moment critical in Europe, more than critical in Ireland, critical even in England. The man who, of all others, commands the least personal confidence and respect would, if his terms be acceded to, become the dictator at a supreme crisis ; and nobody can even conjecture how he would use his power. If his resignation be accepted, and he passes into Opposition, a House of Commons unmanageable already, is likely enough to become a mere political bear-garden, to the r grief and shame of the people of England. We can see no way out of the situation, unless Lord Harting- ton will come to the rescue. He, we believe, with hearty Conserva- tive support, could lead the House of Commons, which is sick at heart of mere adventurers, and which respects him as profoundly as it admires Mr. Gladstone. But Lord Hartington, if he comea to the rescue, must come to the rescue on his own terms. It is impossible for him, a hearty Liberal though a strong Unionist, to accept a place in a mere Tory Government, especially after that Government has just been broken up through the protest of a Chancellor of the Exchequer who objects to what he deems excessive Estimates, and who is understood to have pro- tested against giving too much weight to the landowners in the Local Government Bill. Lord Hartington could only lead the House of Commons if he could propose to it measures in every sense Liberal, though Liberal, of course, in a moderate and sober way. He would be obliged to condition for a thoroughly popular Local Government Bill, for a very guarded and sober foreign policy, not contemplating any needless risk of war, for a sincere attempt to deal largely and effectually with the agrarian question in Ireland as the only means by which the way could be prepared for an understanding between Ireland and Great Britain, and finally for rules of procedure in the Commons which would not be half-measures. If these terms were conceded to him, we do not see why Lord Hartington should scruple to help the Government out of the sad predicament into which it appears to be tumbling. And we may be sure that if the worst came to the worst, and there had to be a dissolution after all, a dissolution by Lord Hartington would promise very different result& from those of a dissolution by Lord Salisbury. At all events, unless Lord Salisbury chooses to risk everything on Mr. Matthews, and Mr. Matthews chooses to undertake that immense risk, which is very unlikely,—for a more desperate situation than to fight single-handed with Mr. Gladstone, Lord Randolph Churchill, and Mr. Parnell in coalition, even if Lord Harting- ton be able and willing to continue his policy of benevolent neutrality, we can hardly imagine,—the only alternative now is to form a really strong alliance with Lord Hartington, or to retire from the field in despair at the sudden thickening of all the difficulties around him. We do not think so lightly of Lord Salisbury as to imagine that he will adopt that rather craven course. And we feel still more confident that he will not make a complete surrender to Lord Randolph Churchill, and pass over to him, virtually or even nominally, the Prime Ministership itself. Hence we can hardly doubt that, whether Lord Salisbury succeeds or not, he will make one more strenuous attempt to bring Lord Hartington to the front, in which, if it be made in the generous and reasonable way, we wish him, for the country's sake, all possible success. During the last hundred years, there has hardly been a graver moment in our Parlia- mentary history.
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