The Economic Horizon
The Survey of Major Economic Changes in 1948 produced by the Department of Economic Affairs of the United Nations gives chapter and verse for the general impression that 1948 was a year of genuine recovery. The U.N. Secretariat views the whole horizon of the world economy. It finds a number of things to be thankful for. The irtunediatz crisis of food production is past. The 1948 harvests were on the whole good, and in the period of relief from anxiety which they have given it may be possible to raise standards of agricultural production. In industry likewise there are signs that the period of hand-to-mouth working with inadequate supplies of raw materials will not go on for much longer. Coal shortage is no longer a barrier to all progress, steel supplies are steadily improving, and although there is still plenty of anxiety about timber, the time has come when indus- trial production in many countries has ceased to go up as if there were no upper limit. Inflationary pressure is tending to decline everywhere, and even dollar shortage is beginning to be less acute as exports from the countries of Europe and Asia whose economies were dislocated by war move steadily upwards. In short, the tale of cosmic blessings, counted one by one, is, as usual, surprising. But the struggle so far, if very hard, has been simple. It has been a matter of producing more—a reproduction of the British recovery effort on a world scale. From now on an equal amount of brawn and considerably more brains will be required. A loosening of the bonds of international trade is essential if the dollar shortage is to be wiped out, and if economic contacts are to be given their full chance to perforate the Iron Curtain. It is to the credit of that much-criticised body, the United Nations Secretariat, that it has pointed out the clouds, as well as the clear patches, on the economic horizon.
Previous page
