TOPICS OF THE DAY.
THE COUP D'gTAT IN TURKEY.
DURING the earlier and middle part of the week the world was cheered by the news that the Grand Council of the Turkish Empire had decided to make peace on the only terms open to Turkey, namely, the cession of Adrianople and of the /Egean Islands. Unfortunately, however, the relief felt throughout Europe did not last long, for on Friday came the news from Constantinople that on Thursday the Young Turks had managed to bring about a coup d'etat, that Kiamil Pasha had fallen, and that Mahmud Shefket, one of the chief members of the Com- mittee of Union and Progress, had been appointed Grand Vizier in his stead. The revolution thus effected is for the time, at any rate, an absolute triumph for the Committee. Enver Bey, that somewhat mysterious soldier who was the prime instrument in the original Salonika revolution, and then organized with great ability the resistance to Italy in Tripoli, becomes Commandant of the Palace. It was, indeed, Enver Bey who carried out the coup d'etat, and the world will now perhaps be able to learn whether he is in truth a Turkish Napoleon, though one with idealistic rather than selfish aspirations, or merely a picturesque instrument used by more able brains behind him. The other member of the triumvirate is Talaat Bey, who becomes Minister of the Interior. Talaat Bey has always been regarded as one of the chief directors of the Committee, and the fact that he is the deputy for Adrianople gives his position in the Ministry a peculiar significance.
It is clear that the foundation-stone of the new regime is the refusal to yield Adrianople or the islands to the Allies. The manifesto put forth on Thursday night by the Com- mittee contains a passage which leaves no doubt as to their intentions :— " Seeing this weakness of the Government, the Allies have demanded Adrianople and the Archipelago. The representatives of the Allies have won over the Powers to their side, and the Kiamil Cabinet has given its assent to these sacrifices. In a Consulta- tive Council yesterday the Cabinet destroyed and betrayed the country and the Ottoman spirit. Kiamil handed over Adrianople to the Bulgarians and the Archipelago to the European Powers, and to conceal his treason he summoned this Consultative Assembly. The Ottoman nation could not endure such a Govern- ment of traitors. When the existence of the country is in danger the nation thinks of exercising its right of revolution. That right it exercised to-day, and the Kiamil Cabinet accordingly resigned."
In order to make the situation even clearer, Talaat Bey, in an interview with Reuter's correspondent, spoke as follows : " This movement means that we are going to save the national honour or perish in the attempt. We do not want a continuation of the war, but we are determined to keep Adrianople. That is a sine qua non."
We are inclined to think that the revolutionaries really mean business, and that unless they are dis- persed to-day or to-morrow by a counter-revolution- -which is, of course, possible, though we admit, not likely—the break-up of the Conference and the renewal of the war must follow. The Allies, it is certain, will not alter their terms either as to Adrianople or the islands. What are the war prospects and who will win if the struggle is renewed P That is the question which all men are now asking themselves. In our opinion the Turkish arms will not be very greatly strengthened by the change at Constantinople. No doubt there will be a momentary blaze of patriotic, or rather of clan, feeling and also of religious enthusiasm among the Turks, but we do not think that it is of the kind that need greatly disturb the Allies. In any case the Turks were sure, in the event of a renewal of hostilities, to have made a stubborn and brave resistance behind the Tchatalja lines, for there unquestionably they are fighting under con- ditions which exactly suit them. To say this, however, is by no means to say that the Tchatalja lines are impreg- nable. No doubt the Bulgarians and Servians will be bound to lose a very large number of men in the effort to storm them, but sooner or later they will either break through or obtain a position so commanding that the surrender of the lines will become necessary. Meantime the renewal of the war is almost certain to lead to the taking of Adrianople by the Allies. Unless we are greatly mistaken, the Bulgarians during the past six weeks have greatly improved their position there, and though there may possibly be some sharp fighting, they should now be able to obtain possession of the fortress with comparative ease. But that accomplished, they will be able to reinforce their army outside Constantinople by something like 100,000 men. Meantime it is possible that with renewed efforts the Allies may be able to force the passage of the Dardanelles and introduce their ships into the Sea of Marmora, thus very materially injuring the position of the Turks. But though, in our opinion, the military prospects of the Allies will not be very greatly affected by the coup d'etat, it is, of course, possible that the Turkish troops may do a great deal better than they did in November. They might conceivably issue from their lines at Tchatalja and defeat the Bulgarians, while at the same time the garrison of Adrianople might break through the fence with which they are now surrounded and attack the Bulgarians in the rear. But though it is impossible to deny that such military miracles might happen, we do not believe they will.
Though we cannot believe in a revolution leading to a military revival in Turkey, we must not shut our eyes to the fact that the revolution may complicate the European situation. If the war is renewed, and if the Tchatalja, lines are carried by assault, it will be very difficult to prevent the Allies entering Constantinople. But if they- do, it will be far more difficult to provide for the future of the city. The actual occupation of Con-. stantinople would probably bring on such a condition of anarchy throughout the Turkish Empire that the Allies would, as it were, have no one to make peace with. If this were to happen, it might be very difficult to prevent something like a scramble among the Great Powers for the fragments of the Asiatic Empire of Turkey. It is, however, premature to enter upon such considerations as these. All we can say definitely at the present moment is that the prospects of a return to tranquillity in Europe have been very greatly jeopardized by the revolution.
Some enlightenment on the situation may be obtained from the manner in which the coup d'etat was effected. The signal was given by five officers on horseback appearing before the Porte. At once a small group issued from a cafe in a side street and unfurled a flag, and immediately a little crowd of revolutionary supers were on the spot. With the stage thus prepared, Enver Bey, mounted on a white horse and with a number of staff officers, appeared on the scene, and amidst the cheers of the crowd dismounted and entered the hall. It was but a moment's work—we naturally fall into the language of melodrama—to tell the Grand Vizier that he must resign. Kiamil, apparently taken by surprise, seems to have made no resistance, but wrote out his resignation at once and handed it to Enver Bey. Enver's next step was to visit the Sultan, from whom he soon obtained the appointment of Commandant of the Palace for himself, of Grand Vizier for Shefket Pasha, and of Minister of Foreign Affairs for. Talaat Bey. At the same time Izzet Pasha was provision- ally declared Generalissimo. We may note that the Times seems to draw a certain amount of consolation from the circumstances of the coup d'etat, and to hold that we need not take the brave words of the new Ministry as showing that they will be actually irreconcilable in the matter of making peace. No doubt the coup d'etat was, as the Times says, the result of an intrigue, but we are bound to say that the ease with which it was accomplished does not reassure us. We can hardly believe that the -whole edifice would have toppled over so quickly if there had not been a general feeling in the Empire and amongst Turkish statesmen generally that the Committee of Union and Progress must be allowed to try their hands at saving Adrianople and the islands before Turkey finally yielded.
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