Sovereign State
The first of a new series of articles dealing with matters relevant to British membership of the EEC and the forthcoming referendum
1. Public opinion
The remarkable and important fact about public opinion and the Common Market is simply its stability. A glance at a chart of the past five years shows movements in the numbers both 'for' and 'against' as events have come and gone, but the fact is that those. 'against' have remained larger than those 'for'. Typically around 50 per cent are opposed to membership and around 35 per cent are in favour. The latest poll shows that this remains the case with those 'against' holding a 12 point lead over those Tor'.
Many different questions about the Common Market have been asked in various surveys (for example Gallup has been asking `Do you think we were right or wrong to join the Common Market?') but the leading opinion poll organisations have frequently asked variations of the basic questions: "Are you for or against membership?" My analysis is based on seventy-eight such polls taken by Harris, Gallup, NOP, ORC and the British Market Research Bureau over the five and a half year period. Since it has been found that other questions give consistently biased results it is wise to concentrate on the simple basic question.
Study of the movements in public opinion suggests two further facts. Firstly, at times when the Common Market is little discussed (for example just after the vote in the Commons on October 28, 1971 or during recent weeks) the 'for' and 'against' gap tends to narrow. Secondly, when the Common Market comes in for lively debate and decision (as for example before the October 28 vote and just before the second reading of the EEC Bill, and after the referendum in Norway) opinion, at the last moment, turns strongly against membership.
It has, however, been instructive to watch the pro-Marketeers' efforts assiduously to cultivate the notion that "opinion is swinging their way". Typically, favourable pendulum swings are hailed with strong headlines while the reverse go unheralded. Another strategem is to commission polls asking many questions in the hope that the answers to two or three will tend to support their case. Usually the basic question is ignored. The most recent of such exercises appeared in the Times on December 18 under the heading 'British Opinion Swings Towards the EEC'. This related a series of small changes indicating a possible slight reduction in the anti-Market lead over pro-Market opinion in three carefully selected questions. Such headlines can of course be both misleading and disheartening to an uninformed reader.
The importance of public opinion on this issue is, in the form of the coming referendum, at last recognised. Apart from Edward Heath's pre-1970 election pledge that entry required the "full-hearted consent of both Parliament and people" the issue must ultimately be a matter of opinion rather than of analysis. The central EEC issue concerns a choice between an independent government at Westminster or our eventual membership of a super-sized government in Brussels with six or eight other countries. To enable the inevitable compromises of renegotiation to be accepted, the latter course absolutely requires a general and strong desire on the part of the electorate that it should be so.
The pro-Marketeers assert that those opposed to entry must either be unintelligent or ignorant of the facts, it being arrogantly assumed that knowledge leads to pro-Market views. It is for others to point to the many fine minds which have reached the conclusion that membership should be opposed. Let us ask instead if opinion polls can give us any clue as to why those who say they are in favour of membership should hold that opinion? Three points emerge: money, party and fashion. Opinion poll questions about electors' expectations of being 'better off' or 'worse off in the EEC reveal a connection between those in favour of membership and those who expect to benefit financially. Similarly, analysis of opinion by party shows a connection between those in favour of membership and those who vote Conservative. (About half of those who vote Conservative are probably pro-Market) Evidence of political fashion is more difficult to come by — but would any political opinion, pollster care to deny the thesis that in England it has, for many, been 'fashionable' to be pro-Market? Incidentally, while the pro-Marketeers have been busily and expensively researching anti-Market opinion holders to find out how best to direct their propaganda effort, the anti-Marketeers have hardly begun to examine the minority, pro-Market electors.
Some opinion poll questions on the Common Market seem to have more than campaign significance. A Harris poll published in the Daily Express in July 1972 revealed that among Conservatives 37 per cent were "Less likely" to vote Tory in future as a result of Edward Heath's pro-Market policies (15 per cent said they were "more likely") — a result warning that government of its 1974 defeats. Polls have also shown the tiny proportion of Labour supporters who are strongly pro-Market, which is another important warning — to certain Labour MPs.
Some questions appear to give an important insight but turn out to be quite irrelevant. For instance, on November 5, 1974 a Harris poll appeared allegedly showing a majority in. favour of remaining in the Common Market provided that we "obtain better terms". If such a conditional question had been asked at almost any time during the last ten years one would probably have obtained a similar meaningless answer.
Two questions published in the November '74 'Gallup Political Index' are of interest. One asked, "If you were told tomorrow that the Common Market had been scrapped, would you be sorry about it, indifferent, or pleased?" 26 per cent said they would be sorry, 24 per cent said they were indifferent, but 38 per cent said they would be pleased. Another asked if electors approved or disapproved of the proposal outlined in the Queen's Speech for "A chance for people to vote on whether we should remain in the Common Market." 16 per cent said they disapproved while a mammoth 72 per cent approved. With a further and vital question showing that only 12 per cent propose to abstain in the referendum, 1975 should be a fascinating time for the opinion polls.
Jim Bourlet
Jim Bourlet is a senior lecturer in Public Finance at the City of London Polytechnic, and Visiting Professor in Economics at the University of British Columbia, 1974-5
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