Spectator's Notebook
ALF-WAY through the campaign, there are rinow clear signs that Mr. Heath, the un- known man at the beginning of this shindig, is at last getting into his stride and starting to make an impression on the public at large. But I can't help feeling that the Tory campaign managers are still allowing themselves to be far too much influenced by what I believe to be a misinterpre- tation of the opinion polls. The polls, as we all know, consistently report that the public con- siders the cost of living to be the most important issue, followed by all the other bread-and-butter issues, with foreign affairs and the rest well down the list. But to infer from this that it pays to make the cost of living the major issue is to commit the fallacy of confusing an issue with a topic.
The cost of living is a topic: it is not an issue, not something that divides the two parties. As far as the average voter is concerned, both parties promise stable prices and both allow prices to go up. Where are the votes in that? If you don't believe me, plot a graph of the rise in prices over the past few years and the fluctuations in govern- ment popularity over the same period. You'll find that there's no correlation between the two lines whatsoever. There is a correlation of sorts be- tween government popularity and •the relationship between prices and incomes; but after a year in which prices have risen 5 per cent and earnings 9 per cent that's hardly much use to an Opposi- tion. Indeed, the Tories' cry of 9-5-1 is in fact the Government's winning combination: earnings running 4 per cent ahead of prices and only 1 per cent more hard work—who could ask for anything more?
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