POLITICS

The Zecites hope to embarrass Tony Blair can they avoid embarrassing Ken Clarke?

BRUCE ANDERSON

Political mood-swings often seem unre- lated to the real world. No one in Britain is better off as a result of the Prime Minister's statement on Tuesday, but a lot of people felt cheered up by it. So did a large number of Tory MPs.

Even as late as midday on Tuesday, the outcome was still in doubt. I was sitting in a minister's office in Whitehall. We were both wondering what conclusions they were coming to over in No. 10 and who would make the statement. We agreed that it had to be the PM, or at least Malcolm Rifkind. If it were left to Douglas Hogg, yet again reporting on failure, poor old Hoggy would be torn apart by his own backbenchers while Labour and the Liberals laughed and gloated. We also agreed that it would be unwise for Mr Major to speak unless he had counter-measures to announce.

Those measures had been under review for some weeks, and there was a disagree- ment in Cabinet. Some Eurosceptics were so incensed that they were even prepared to break EU law. Others, though wishing to retaliate, did not want to go that far. Their arguments prevailed, reinforced by a coali- tion of lawyers and Europhiles: James Mack- ay and Paddy Mayhew on the one hand — law officers do not like law-breaking — and Messrs Clarke, Gummer and Heseltine on the other. Mr Major himself had always favoured the non-co-operation option; his senior colleagues finally agreed to it, with a surprising degree of enthusiasm.

The surprise, of course, refers to Mr Clarke. Other ministers had wondered whether he would ever agree to anything that might be construed as anti-European. But this underestimated the provocative effect of the EU's bad behaviour. After all, it is Mr Clarke who will have to sign the cheques.

There has been provocation and the Government's anger is genuine. Mr Major reminded everyone that Europe depended on good faith, which has now been breached. In private, British arguments were accepted and assurances were given, only to be repudiated later without expla- nation. In some cases, the explanations are all too obvious. Of all EU countries, Britain and Holland have the largest export trade in bull semen for breeding purposes. A ban on exports of British semen will not prevent a single case of BSE, but it does benefit Dutch producers. The Dutch voted to retain it. That is only a small part of the beef industry's problems, but it is the most flagrant example of EU bad faith.

For many years now, British visitors to Brussels and Strasbourg have been wel- comed with a stock Europhile argument. Our politics here are disinterested and statesmanlike, one is told. In a calm and rational manner, we deliberate about the welfare of Europe, in an atmosphere untaint- ed by nationalism or tabloid newspapers. Why can't you British be more like us?

This view of the world even found some British adherents, especially in the Foreign Office. But after recent events, who can still believe that they order this matter bet- ter in Brussels? Edwina Currie, apparently: but her Euro-enthusiasm springs from her dislike of this country.

That could never have been said of Ken- neth Clarke. Over the past couple of years, Mr Clarke has sometimes seemed more con- cerned to face down opponents in his own party than to defeat the Opposition. But not even his Europhilia is proof against the self- serving hypocrisy of a Dutch vet. For the moment, at least, he is marching in step.

But how long will that moment last, and where will the march lead? As we have dis- covered over the ban itself, it is easier to start these things than to stop them. Harold Wilson once said that in politics you should never enter a room unless you can see a door on the other side. Is there a doorway out of the current degringolade?

Would it be enough, for instance, to have the ban on semen, gelatin and tallow lifted? Had that been done last Monday, there would have been no prime-ministerial statement; Mr Hogg could safely have been left in charge of good news. But Monday passed, the statement was made, and the stakes were raised. If the average Tory back- bencher has his way, the Euro-hostilities will continue unless and until the ban is wholly lifted. 'Even if that means non-co-operation between now and the election?' one enquires, to be greeted with a broadening smile. A lot of Tory MPs would like to fight the election on that basis; they think that it would prove embarrassing for Mr Blair.

They may well be right. Mr Blair's Europhilia, though genuine, is a love that dare not speak its name: it might cost votes. He may also be a victim of a political mis- calculation in Brussels. A number of our partners have lost patience with this British Government, and would rather deal with a different one. They know that helping Britain at the moment also means helping John Major, which they are reluctant to do. They feel that damaging Britain's beef indus- try is a small price to pay for a British gov- ernment with a correct attitude to Europe.

But it is dangerous to intervene in other countries' politics on the basis of a superficial understanding; in this case, misunderstand- ing. The Euro-nomenklatura who run the EU simply cannot understand the strength of feeling among the British electorate. They are sure that when reasonable Mr Blair explains matters properly....

Mr Blair does not share their assurance. He has no wish to explain such matters at all, at least not this side of the election. That explains why he did not express a view on Tuesday, but merely asked questions. On this subject — though he might not reveal his feelings to his friends on the Continent — Mr Blair agrees with the average Tory back- bencher. They both reckon that if the British voter comes to believe that the Europeans are counting on Premier Blair, Mr Blair will never become premier.

So Mr Blair could be embarrassed over Europe. Mr Major's problem is how to do so without also embarrassing Mr Clarke. A retaliatory gesture is one thing. But months of attrition and ill-temper, with poison slowly seeping through every aspect of the Euro-British relationship: Ken Clarke will not enjoy that one bit.

It is hard to see how this can be avoided. We are taking our case to the European Court of Justice and it is a good one. If that court dealt in 'Justice' rather than in 'Euro- pean', we would have every hope of suc- cess. But it is about as easy to win a pro- British verdict in the European Court as it is to get an lbw decision from a Pakistani umpire.

None of these fine calculations will trou- ble the average Tory backbencher over the bank holiday. For years, his association has been pressing him to press the Government to get stuck into the Europeans. Now we are. That this will not enable us to sell an extra pound of British beef may not instant- ly become apparent.

In 1940, after the fall of France, Zec pro- duced his famous cartoon: a Tommy on the cliffs of Dover, facing Europe, raising his fist aloft and proclaiming 'Very well, alone!' This weekend, there are a lot of Zecites in the Tory Party.