TEE surmises we made upon the subject of M. de
Lavalette's journey, and the designs of the Government relatively to the Roman question, have lately received the strongest confirmation from an article which appeared in the Constitutionnel on Lord Palmerston's last speech. Tins article was much remarked upon, and bore, beyond a doubt, an official character. The writer indorses, almost one by one, the accusations made by Lord Palmerston against the Pontifical Government, but at the same time states very distinctly that the moment has not arrived for the evacuation of Rome. The conclusion is not very logical. Nevertheless, it is most certain that such is and such will long continue to be the attitude of the Imperial Govern-
ment. The initiative at all events, so far as appearances go, will not come from that quarter.
The rumours of the approaching dissolution of the Legislative Body have circulated anew. A dissolution is unquestionably in M. de Persigny's wishes. We place no more faith in it, however, than in the evacuation of Rome. On this head we are entirely of the same mind with one of thefive deputies of the democratic opposition, who said, as far back as a year ago, " The Government will threaten us with a dissolution down to the end, and it will not dissolve us." Where, indeed, could better be found than the servile and mediocre assembly which voted almost by acclamation the law of general safety, and which the year before, in the face of the alarming deficit revealed a few months later by M. Fould, solemnly engaged the Emperor in the Address to rely upon the inexhaustible resources of France ? Inasmuch, however, as the report seems to gather fresh consistency, we may take this opportunity of discussing what at the present moment, according to every probability, might be the result of a general election. We hasten to say that none can be more dis- posed than we are to attach a serious importance to these electoral contests. Take them all in all, they are, in our opinion, the only and true field for resistance. The press is no longer a force upon which we can safely reckon. We have no taste for street encounters, and, let us add, their issue could not be held in doubt by any one. What, then, have we left but to run the chances of the ballot-box, and to struggle within the narrow limits in which we are imprisoned by the present constitution.
But, however much we may be prepared to condemn inaction, we should feel any overweening confidence in the result of the struggle to be equally unreasonable. The English public, with its rooted habits of liberty and fair play, cannot adequately realize, what, since the Empire, our French elections exactly are. In most of our depart- ments an independent candidate cannot get a newspaper to announce him as a candidate ! To make himself known to the electors he naturally has recourse to bills posted on the wall, bearing his name and political creed. But the local printers, whose daily bread depends upon the prefect, who can reduce them to beggary by simply with- drawing their license, almost universally refuse to lend their services to an opposition candidate. The candidate is thus compelled to have his addresses and circulars and voting papers (bulletins de vote) printed in some large town or department at a distance. The voting papers cannot even be distributed without the authorization of the prefect, or unless an entry is made at the office of the Attorney- General (Procureur Imperial) by the candidate. This formality accomplished, or this authorization obtained, we are not to imagine that the distribution can be freely effected. At every step the dis- tributors employed by the candidate will be threatened, molested, preventively arrested. The circulars will be seized under pretext of an irregularity to be amended, or of a warrant to be given. Time is spent in parleys, at the end of which, perhaps, the Administration will be compelled to admit the right of the candidate. But in the mean time his canvas has been hampered during an interval more or less considerable, and the desired result will thus have been attained. We are not detailing special and particular facts. The description we give is perfectly general, and applies universally to the opposition candidates who are bold enough to enter the lists.
During this time the Government is busy preparing the election of its own candidate. He is not unfrequently a chamberlain of his Majesty, a journalist of the officious press, an old general whose in- firmities, intellectual and physical, have compelled his retirement, and who, besides being a stranger in his own country, is utterly un- known to his constituents. He will be elected for all that; for the prefect is declared responsible beforehand for the result, and he would take excellent care to eschew a defeat the end of which would be his own ruin. The Administration undertakes, therefore, to canvas for the happy favourite of the Government, undertakes all the expenses of the election, printing expenses, advertising expenses, distribution expenses, itc. &c. The officious journals in -every im- pression hymn the praises of the candidate recommended to their good offices. Functionaries of every degree are placed at his com- mand. The prefects, the under-prefects, the mayors, the justices of the peace, fan the zeal of the electors. The rural policeman, and the spies of the central police, distribute the voting papers. As the prefect is responsible to the Government, so each mayor * is responsible to the prefect for the votes of his parish. The mayors know this wonderfully well, and act accordingly. Much laughter was occasioned some time ago by the candour of one of them, who expressed with blundering frankness the true state of things. The point was to get the son-in-law of the prefect nominated. The poor man, who was extolling the merits of the candidate, added: "And how could you refuse him your votes ? Who could better represent the views of AL le Prefet than his own son-in-law ?" Any one who knows on the one hand what vast resources and forces our centralized Administration pos- sesses, and on the other how deep has been the political lethargy of our provinces hitherto, may easily gather that such means are almost infallibly crowned with success. It must be added, that as a necessary consequence of our political and administrative organiza- tion, every individual person is more or less dependent upon the Ad- ministration and interested in obtaining its good will. And this is a sentiment upon which the Administration works, and there are very few electors for whom it has not either a promise or a threat in store. Every functionary is expressly cautioned that his prospects will
* It is well known that the present Government nominates and revokes the mayors of all the parishes of France at pleasure.
depend upon his vote. We have had under our eyes a circular of the postal department, addressed to its agents, from which we extract textually the following passage : "You know that every functionary owes in conscience his votes to the Government candidate. Those who should act otherwise must be prepared to endure all the consequences of their opposition." There is not a functionary who is not thus condemned to vote and to make others vote for the candidate of the Administration under pain of =feting the consequences of his vote. Nor are the functiona- ries alone under the heel of the Government. All who aspire to Government employ, all who have a son, a nephew, a son-in-law to place, all the indigent in want of public relief, all the publicans who are not ready to see their refreshment-rooms closed, that is to say, their livelihood confiscated, become active agents in the official pro- paganda under the terror held over their heads if they do not vote well. Tax-payers, who are right-minded, are promised a remission in their share of the taxes, which is shifted upon the shoulders of a seditious neighbour. If a landowner is in debt (great is the number of the indebted), le credit fonci.x, will place funds at his disposal, upon exceptional conditions, to encourage the progress of agriculture. Nor are operations directed against individuals only. Parishes are promised roads, churches, schools, a postal service, whatever they most require, but which would be inexorably denied them should they name an independent deputy or counsellor-general.
Such are the circumstances under which the ballot is opened. We may judge what chances remain for an independent candidate, and we can understand how the influence of a great landowner or of a great manufacturer is as nothing in the contest with the thousand- handed giant called the Administration. In great crises, besides, the Administration holds in reserve heroic means. At the last municipal election of Marseilles the Opposition list seemed on the point of victory. To avoid a defeat the Administration had a large number of Voting papers distributed among gendarmes and custom-house officers not inscribed upon the electoral lists. These pseudo-electors voted with a precision and military ensemble truly edifying, and the Govern- ment lists won in a canter.
We shall not inflict upon your readers the detailed account of the scenes which usually arise at the moment of the vote. Then it is that the rural police, and the police spies, and the mayors, make their last onslaught upon the wretched electors of our rural parishes, and decide them, in extremis, upon putting a good paper into the box instead of a bad one. If the elector persists in putting in a bad paper, all is not lost yet. There are mayors who manipulate with singular dexterity the universal suffrage. In a small parish near Avignon, the electoral urn was a box, upon whose orifice was placed a big book. The mayor examined the papers as they were presented to him, opened them if necessary. It the paper was a good one, he lifted the book and put the paper into the box. If the paper was bad, he opened the book and popped the obnoxious vote between the leaves. We could cite another parish in which a large number of electors have declared in writing that they voted for the independent candidate, and where, nevertheless, the scrutiny declared the return of the Government man to be unanimous. It is no rare thing in our country places to find in the urn a number of voting papers larger than that of the voters. It need not be said that the papers in excess do not bear the name of the independent candidate.
All that we have said (and on this point we should not be contra- dicted by any of those who have watched the universal suffrage pro- ceedings closely under the present system) sufficiently shows what will be the difficulties which independent candidates will have to encounter at our next elections, and how feeble are their chances of success. To overcome such obstacles, extraordinary energy would be required on the part of the electors, and a close union between the different fractions of the opposition.
But never have our citizens been more timid, and never have the adversaries of the Government been more divided. The only pro- gress we have made, and we are far from denying its importance, is that a public spirit has arisen in our great centres. There an under- standing between the parties, and a moderate amount of ability in turning to account local causes of disaffection, might bring about the triumph of several candidates of the opposition. We should not be surprised if the members returned for Paris should belong almost entirely to the opposition. Analogous returns might be expected for Lyons, Bordeaux, Marseilles. The majority of these elections would, to all appearance, bear a very democratic character. The irri- tation produced at Lille and Rouen by the treaty of commerce might give some of the opposition men, such as M. Thiers, serious chances of success. The Catholic opposition may equally triumph in several towns of the south and west. M. de Montalembert might be re- turned for one of these districts. But we doubt his success, on account of the opposition he will no doubt meet with on the part of the absolutist clergy. Whatever points of view we may adopt, we are compelled to acknowledge that the different oppositions we have signalized would suffice to raise formidable difficulties for the Govern- ment. Perhaps the opposition might, in addition, look for a few stray triumphs in certain departments under the influence of local discontents. But that is all, I think, which we can reasonably expect.
In brief, the coming Legislative Body will contain, to all appear- ance, fifteen or twenty members of the democratic opposition, some ten opposition members of various hues, and among their number some eminent men. It would certainly be no triumph, but it would be a step in advance.
I FnExcnmax.
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