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POLISH LESSONS
System has been its seemingly total imper- viousness to either revolt or reform. But in reality, as the most elementary Marxism tells us, nothing in the universe is station- ary; and when the productive forces of a society can no longer be contained within the prevailing relations of production, there is . . . a revolution.
Whether the advent of a Solidarity prime minister and government in Poland proves to be a revolution or an episode in that nation's long ordeal remains to be seen. The Communist Party may yet turn the situation to advantage, because political victory is not the same thing as economic success. Should Solidarity fail to deliver Poland from the socialist quagmire, in which prices are not prices and supply has nothing to do with demand, apathy and cynicism will permit a reversion to the status quo ante. 'I told you so' can be an effective political argument. Despite the obvious dangers, Solidarity has undertaken to form a government, perhaps its most courageous decision in a history not lacking in courage. Crying in the wilderness is easier than transforming shortage into plenty, and carries fewer political risks. For there can be little doubt that the reforms Poland, in common with all the other command economies of the Eastern bloc, needs will be extremely painful, and may yet prove impossible for political reasons.
Inflation, inequality and unemployment Will be the first fruits of the new policy. They have all been present in communist countries for many years, despite prop- aganda claims to the contrary, but in disguised forms. Black markets, where goods in short supply are available at prices several times the official price, are a masked form of inflation. Of the inequali- ties of life in communist states much has been written, though for the most part they remain furtive and hidden. As for unem- ployment, it is disguised in the form of inefficiency and low productivity. The in- escapable price of full employment under socialism has been an abysmal standard of living for almost everyone: and thus the law of the marketplace brings in its re- venges. It does not follow, however, that more rational economic policies will be im- mediately popular. Everyone will see the need for sacrifice, but only in others. And half a century of communist propaganda will not have been without effect: that some should flourish while others struggle for subsistence will be seen not as a necessary consequence of the economic freedom that will eventually produce general if unequal prosperity, but as injus- tice to be righted by government control. Unemployment and high prices might lead to unrest, and unrest — if sufficiently widespread — to fraternal Soviet assist- ance. This in turn would put an end to the experiments in reform in the Soviet Union. Reports of the death of communism are premature. These are far from the only difficulties that the new government in Poland faces. How, for example, will it entice farmers to produce more? Higher prices will only fuel inflation so long as industry produces nothing that the farmers want in exchange. But for industry to produce what farmers (and everyone else) want, a thorough restructuring will be necessary. This takes not only time, but foreign exchange. Yet Poland is already highly indebted and cannot be considered a good commercial prospect for foreign investment. Solidarity has more than one circle to square.
Poland is a faraway land of which we now know quite a lot. Are there lessons for us in its recent, tormented history? Con- trary to what is often asserted, Mrs Thatch- er's decade of government has not fun- damentally changed the terms of British political debate. There are important sec- tors of society that remain deeply hostile to the marketplace, that believe security is more important than prosperity. They still see no connection between the two, and desire nothing more than petrified mediocrity. With Mrs Thatcher's govern- ment losing popularity — an unsurprising phenomenon after ten years — these dis- mal aspirations, that have been responsible for our steep relative decline, are once more becoming evident.
Of course, our problems have been minor, even trivial, by comparison with Poland's. Yet it has taken ten years of grim determination to achieve in this country very limited, and possibly temporary, triumphs over the forces of dirigisme and state bureaucracy. The lesson of Poland is that economic controls are like illicit drugs: they are profitable for those who peddle them, and are addictive for those who consume them, whom, however, they con- demn to a miserable existence. It is a lesson worth learning.
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