MAKING THE SERBS SEE STARS
Anne Applebaum attempts to decipher the
reasons given for Nato's air strike in Bosnia, and finds that the best code is the zodiac
FIFTY NATO jets go up in the air. A large number of bombs come down. The head- lines loom big and black once again, the datelines read `Bihac'; slick-looking pilots feature on the news. Yet when a large num- ber of very important people are asked why it has all happened — what the point of the Nato bombing raid might have been, for example — the answers seem strangely vari- ous. They seem to change according to the nationality, personality and political position of the speaker — and, quite possibly, accord- ing to his zodiac sign as well.
In Washington for example, Bill Clinton, American President and a Leo by birth, adopted a characteristically lion-like stand- point: firmly moral, deeply earnest, big- hearted. 'It was a strong and entirely appropriate response. That airfield has been used to conduct the air attacks against the Bihac region.' In other words, the raid was designed mainly to prevent these particular Serbs from using that par- ticular place to launch their planes. But why did Nato choose this airfield and not the thousands of other targets which it would be authorised to attack (according to existing UN resolutions) if it felt like doing so? Clearly the President was not in the mood to explain, nor was he hesitant or doubtful (Leo men rarely are): 'It was the right thing to do,' he declared.
Meanwhile, on the other side of town, Willy Claes, secretary-general of Nato, was in Washington giving a press conference. Willy Claes is a Sagittarian; Sagittarius is the Archer, and as such is famed for never missing his mark. Perhaps that is why Mr Claes was so keen to stress the accuracy of Nato's bombs, the fact that they did hit their target (the runway) while cleverly avoiding actual planes. Mr Claes was anx- ious to get the political tone of the bomb- ing raid exactly right as well. The success of the raid shows, he said, that Nato is `doing better in our co-operation with the Theevers, are you doing building work on the side?' UN'. Finally, the Archer being a very pre- cise character indeed, Mr Claes went on to deny that the air raids were designed to `punish' the Serbs or to 'win' the war: 'We are not trying to multiply military victories; we are just trying to convince the Serbs that the moment has come to go back to the conference table.'
But if Claes was all fine-tuned precision and diplomatic language, another, com- pletely different set of opinions were pro- nounced by Bob Dole. His star sign is Cancer, the Crab; his new job is leader of the Senate. 'The UN should get off Nato's back and let Nato take care of Serbian aggression,' he said, his snapping claws making mincemeat of Claes's careful state- ments about 'convincing the Serbs' and `conference tables'. Senator Dole also promised to visit Nato soon, on its home territory in Brussels. He planned, he said, to 'tell them I don't see any reason for their existence if they have to take orders from the UN'. So much for Nato 'doing better in our co-operation' with the UN.
If things were a bit unclear on the far side of the Atlantic — were the raids meant to 'take care' of the Serbs? Were the raids meant to 'convince' the Serbs? they grew even less clear on this side. Some Nato spokesmen (their star signs are not known at present) were already crowing about the biggest use of Nato air power in history. Others, however, were calling the raid a 'limited strike'.
Malcolm Rifkind, whose 21 June birth- day puts him on the cusp between Gemini and Cancer, made an appropriate attempt to bridge some of these gaps. Far from pointing to the military effectiveness of the air strike (like President Clinton) or calling for a bigger Nato mandate in Bosnia (like Senator Dole), the British Defence Secre- tary preferred to approve this particular raid, but not raids in general, and certainly not raids meant to harm the Serbs or help the Bosnians. 'We have emphasised from the beginning of this operation that either close air support or any other military means that may be necessary to protect our UN forces will fully have our support,' he said: the point of the raid, in other words, was to protect the United Nations ground troops. Helpfully, Mr Rifkind also pointed out that the bombing raid had actually damaged the airport runway in five places; he did not add how long it would take the Serbs to fill in the holes with concrete and carry on.
This is all very well, of course, but any- one who knows about horoscopes also knows that it is not just his zodiac sign which determines a given man's behaviour, but the general configuration of the stars. For that reason, perhaps it would help any- one who wants to understand the reasoning behind this week's bombing raid to look at the timing. One might note, for example, that it occurred just a few days after the largest rift ever to take place within the Nato alliance: the British and French are still/supporting the arms embargo on Bosnia, whereas the Americans are now refraining from enforcing it (and are sus- pected to be actually breaking it).
Because of this split all kinds of tricky problems, to do with intelligence sharing, different loyalties of different Nato com- manders and the like, have come to light, and more are coming. If they could speak, surely the stars would tell us that there could be no better moment than now for Nato to launch a big, boisterous bombing raid, involving lots of planes and personnel speaking different Nato languages. How better to prove that all is well within the alliance?
Not that anyone would confess to this. Asked this week if there were any rift between the United States and its Euro- pean allies in Bosnia, Warren Christopher, American Secretary of State, snapped back, 'I see no rift at all.' But then, Warren Christopher is a Scorpio; Scorpios are competitive and a bit touchy. At the end of the day, maybe we would be better off if all were explained by Patric Walker, Shelly von Strunckel or Mystic Meg.
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