DOLE GETS TOUGH TOO LATE

So on to Dan Quayle in 2000.

Michael Vestey reports Washington IT IS easy to be influenced by the media's portrayal of a public figure. 'What a jerk — the guy can't spell potato,' a colleague said. I laughed and thought, how dreadful. Despite an inbuilt scepticism about the American television networks and the East Coast newspapers, I actually came to believe that a certain Mr Dan Quayle was a buffoon, an embarrassment to President Bush, who would soon join the pantheon of nearly men — the long line of forgotten vice-presidents.

That is, until I heard him speak at the 1992 Republican Convention in humid Houston. He spoke with intelligence, style, self-assurance and conviction — unlike George Bush, who rambled repetitively and sometimes incoherently. He seemed to me to be future presidential material young and 'telegenic' like Clinton — and didn't think at the time that Clinton would win the election. Had Bush been re-elect- ed, Quayle would have been the presiden- tial candidate at this very moment — the inexperienced gaffe-prone younger Quayle would by now have matured.

The televised debates between Clinton and Bob Dole reminded me of Quayle's performance against Democratic vice- presidential candidate Lloyd Bentsen in the 1988 campaign. Bentsen's famous put- down of Quayle has now entered the annals of ripostes. When Quayle foolishly invoked the name of Jack Kennedy, Bentsen pounced, replying sharply that he knew Jack Kennedy: 'And you're no Jack Kennedy.' How they roared.

What Quayle should have said, of course, was, 'You're right. I'm not a crook with links to the Mafia, I'm not a serial adulter- er, I'm not a ballot-rigger, and my mistress- es, such as Marilyn Monroe, don't die in mysterious circumstances when they're about to embarrass me. So, yes, Mr Bentsen, I'm not like your old friend, Jack Kennedy.' But he couldn't think fast enough, and in any case he'd raised the name of Kennedy thinking it was a good thing because it still meant something in America — particularly among the liberal Establishment.

Another Marilyn, the steely Marilyn Quayle, has hinted that her husband might be back in the fray in the year 2000. In a way, it's a pity he's not in there now. He might have acquired the glibness of Clin- ton, have learnt how to manipulate the media and be as good at funerals as the actor from Arkansas has become. He would have been crucified by the media, of course, but he's no stranger to that and it's unlikely any scandal would have been unearthed. Not that it's made much differ- ence to Clinton, who has a great deal of scandal in the sewers of his political career (being a Republican, Quayle's drains would have been reconstructed). If he can distance himself from the religious Right, he might have a chance next time.

One's thoughts turn to 2000 because of Bob Dole's generally lacklustre campaign. For Dole, being 73 might not be the killer blow but it doesn't help. Clinton has described him as 'a bridge to the past'. While many of us might find this rather comforting, it's seen by many in the pre- sent climate as a drawback. In 1976, when Ronald Reagan was 65 and unsuccessfully challenging for the presidential nomina- tion, his age and the widespread belief that he was some kind of right-wing extremist ruined his chances. Some said it was time to retire or to return to playing the sheriff in westerns. But, of course, he came back four years later and won, becoming the most successful peacetime president this century. While some see Dole's age as a handicap, others see his moderation as a far greater one.

By moderation, I mean the absence of ideology or conviction. What is he to be president for? one asks. Is it just to be in power as a manager? Is it the trappings of office to crown a long political career? Even Clinton had convictions -four years ago, many of which he has been forced to ditch since. We do not really know what, if anything, Dole stands for except gaining power and holding on to it. He always I used to be Anne Boleyn's spin doctor.'

believed in higher taxes to cut the budget deficit, learning nothing from Reaganomics —though now, in despera- tion, he's promising a 15 per cent across- the-board tax cut. This might be something to do with the presence on the ticket of his old Republican enemy, Jack Kemp, whose nomination as vice-presi- dent was seen as a masterstroke at the San Diego convention, briefly raising the spir- its of morose Republicans.

But, as I write, Kemp hasn't improved Dole's perceived popularity — last week the opinion polls had him trailing Clinton by 15 to 20 points, though now the margin is narrowing, particularly in California where he's making a strong push. I don't have a slavish faith in polls, any more than I do in the audience figures of radio and television stations. As George Gallup, the pioneer of opinion polls, put it, could prove God statistically.' I expect the gap to narrow even more between now and 5 November, it usually does; but the improvements in the US economy — not Clinton's doing — are likely to return him to power.

It shows what a lucky President he is. The economy, in recession under Bush, began to improve just in time for Clinton's victory in 1992 and is now booming. This is thanks largely to Alan Greenspan, the con- servative chairman of the Federal Reserve — reappointed for a third term by Clinton — who has ensured that the country has had steady growth with low inflation. The so-called feel-good factor, more than any- thing, should bring Clinton home.

If Dole had turned nasty much earlier, concentrating on the sleaze and scandal at the White House and its roots in Arkansas, he might have had a chance, but, as we saw with Nixon's Watergate, uncovering the truth is a slow and difficult business. It might well be that Clinton will last a full second term before retribution arrives, as there aren't any Woodwards and Bernsteins to ferret out the details — or at least not until there's a Republican in the White House.

Until now, and the second televised debate, Dole had more or less shrunk from attacking Clinton in detailed personal terms, despite being told that, in the words of the American football coach, nice guys finish last. It's possible there's a skeleton or two in his own cupboard, but more like- ly that, as with Adlai Stevenson, twice a failed Democratic presidential candidate in the 1950s, he lacks the appetite for the brutality of the campaign. There are other parallels with Stevenson, in urbanity not liberalism. Dole can't resist witticisms which sound good but carry no weight with voters. Stevenson was the same, with his propensity for the epigram. He was much given to saying things like: 'A lie is an abomination unto the Lord and a very pre- sent help in trouble' and 'Flattery is all right — if you don't inhale.' Yes, very ele- gant, his supporters told him, but let's get on and beat the shit out of them, okay? No wonder Eisenhower defeated him in the landslides of 1952 and 1956.

The closest Dole gets to savaging Clin- ton is in such Stevenson-like barbs as 'I don't know of any administration that has been more self-righteous, but few adminis- trations have been more self-serving.' With the exception of Richard Nixon, who could smell a Democrat a mile off and flatten him, and who would call a spade a knife, Democrats, like liberals everywhere, are often the most ruthless in attack. It's just that they do it with a smile on their faces. Lyndon Johnson once said of President Ford, `Gerry's the only man I know who can't fart and chew gum at the same time.'

One expects a dirty fight here in the old colony, it's what gives us a frisson in observing American election campaigns in much the same way we once thought that bank holidays in Britain wouldn't be the same if Heathrow workers didn't come out on strike. Some years ago, I was much taken by the story of a group of southern- ers plotting the downfall of their political rival. One of them suggested calling their opponent a mother-f—er. 'But he isn't,' objected another. 'I know he isn't — but let's hear him deny it.' Newt Gingrich, the right-wing Republican Speaker of the House of Representatives, may hold sway in Congress, but the ferocity of the Democrats' attacks on him made him say recently that it would take 20 years for him to recover from being labelled the most hated man in America.

The Knight of Camelot, Gore Vidal, quotes Jackie Kennedy as saying, 'It's so funny. All the money we — and they spend digging up all this dirt and then no one ever uses any of it.' She was probably thinking of better uses for it — like her wardrobe. It's probably too late now for Dole to turn into Mr Hyde, though he is at last beginning to hammer home more vig- orously what voters still doubt most about Clinton — his integrity. Electorally, he seems to have given up in the Mid-West and has been concentrating on California, which has a fifth of the votes in the Elec- toral College. By exploiting the fears of whites in that state as they flee the Demo- crat-encouraged tide of immigrants from Latin America (they vote Democrat), he might just have a chance of taking it.

Unless something dramatic like this hap- pens, it looks like Quayle for 2000. I can see the stickers now.