POLITICAL COMMENTARY HUGH MACPHERSON

It is well known that Mr Edward He tth disapproves of journalists speculating on the political future—perhaps a little surprisingly since seadogs are notoriously superstitious. What is needed, in the eyes of the PM, is more analysis. On occasions, however, the two are by no means incompatible. For ex- ample in the not too distant future Mr Heath must makes his first reshuffle, apart from that forced on him by the death of lain Macleod. The reasons for this are interesting in themselves even if the outcome is difficult to determine.

Some changes will be unavoidable even if the skipper decided to voyage on with the present trusty - crew. For one thing Mr Geoffrey Rippon will soon have finished his European negotiations and will have to be found more gainful employment. Then Sir Alec Douglas-Home will be sixty-eight in July and, although he carries his years lightly, he has shown some signs of weariness in the House. Only on Monday he handed a hostage, or two, to Mr Wilson for the forthcoming debate on arms sales to South Africa.

There are, of course, still things for Sir Alec to do for the party. If the arms deals with South Africa are to be concluded, who better than Sir Alec to sell it to the country? Equally, if the WASP helicopters are simply a gesture to keep the blood pressure of such Party worthies as Rear-Admiral Morgan Giles within bonds—and that could be a Possibility—then who better to placate them than the much-respected Foreign Secretary? Above all, Sir Alec is the PM's main hope of selling European entry to the Tory con- ference. But when that is done the gentil knight will surely trot back along the cor- ridor to exchange fustian for ermine and become a life Grand Vizier or whatever else it is you make such a famous former Earl.

These forthcoming changes are in the natural order of things. Alas, there is also early evidence of weaknesses which could eventually lead Mr Heath to those brutal lit- tle execution scenes which every Prime Minister must face. We have all been assured, of course, that the Kentish seadog is made of stern stuff and will take these pain- ful decisions with the same crisp lack of emo- tion which characterised the assassinations Of Clement Attlee. Nevertheless, for all that as the Pm fills up his log at the end of the day a question mark must go against the name of one of his closest colleagues, Mr Anthony Barber. And that must give him quite a bit of pain.

The sad fact is that the Chancellor is not the commanding figure he ought to be. Part of the reason is that he is shadowed by Mr Lz)Y Jenkins who has emerged as a formidable Opposition spoke'sman. What is more, his confidence in opposing Mr Jenkins never seems to have recovered from the in- cident in November 1969 when he used a Daily Express article to cast doubt on the validity of Mr Jenkins's trade figures. He was subsequently eaten alive in public, and con- fessed afterwards that he thought this had finished his chances of going to No 11.

There is no obvious reason for his lack of confidence. Yet when Mr Jenkins upbraids him pub ic y he is soon floundering. In last week's debate on economic and industrial policy he almost lost control of the House, his state of mind coming to the fore, when he called Mr Wilson the Prime Minister on two occasions. Short of pouring beer over Mr Heath's Bechstein one could think of no bet- ter way of upsetting the current occupant of No 10.

Obviously Mr Heath is going to stand by Mr Barber as one of his inner group of political allies and because he wants to keep a firm political hold on the Treasury himself. Still he must ponder the effect of a weak Chancellor on party morale when the going gets tougher—as it certainly will. It has, of course, not reached the stage of the furniture vans being booked for No 11. We are only analysing; not speculating. Still the question marks must be there in the log book.

Quite apart from these difficult con- siderations the Skipper, who obviously wants to run a happy ship, must also ponder late into the dogwatch the workings of the Department of Trade and Industry. Let it be said at once that this is only indirectly the fault of Mr John Davies. Of course he made a disastrous start in the Commons when called to reply to a debate in a hostile House. It was, in fact, no worse a start than that made by Disraeli whose maiden speech merited a contemporary description as 'a mixture of insolence and folly'.

Mr Davies is certainly never going to be a great Commons orator but the fact is that he has improved with every outing and will never provide the same sport for Labour benches again. Indeed he could still emerge as one of the really powerful men of this Government for there is ultimate confidence in his ability. He recently had a splendid reception from the .1922 Committee when his

department was nationalising and subsidis- ing industry in a manner that set the watch- chains jangling with fury. The recovery of the former Director-General of the CBI is due to hard work and a willingness to learn (also, in no small measure, to the exceptional qualities of his PPS, Mr Michael Shaw).

No, the problems of the oil lie first in the fact that it is tackling an enormous amount of controversial work with four less ministers than that of the first administration. This inevitably leads to difficulties in com- munication. After that there is the problem of the second-string ministers. Here it must be recorded that there is a measure of real discontent with their performance. Sir John Eden, the Minister for Industry, is rather in- clined to theological excesses in his zeal to demolish the nationalised industries, which leads to embarrassment among elder states- men who know that the business of govern- ment involves the use of honey as well as vinegar.

Then there is the case of his fellow Mini- ster of State for Trade, Mr Michael Noble, who was brought in for a temporary period believed to be in the region of three years. Mr Noble's career has been a curious one. When Mr Macmillan ran amok among his Cabinet in July 1962 he promoted Mr Noble, then a junior Whip, straight to Cabinet rank as Secretary of State for Scotland. He had only been in the House for four years and made one speech. During the opposition years he lost his shadow post and then was one of the surprise appointments of the new government.

He is a languid Old Etonian of the kind who used to figure in films made by Mr Michael Wilding and Miss Anna Neagle about Spring in Park Lane. A rich Scottish farmer, who knows a black-faced sheep when ' he secs one, he has all the qualities that would have made him a success in the Tory party just one generation ago. But now there are many young Tory backbenchers of a dif- ferent turn of mind; soft-faced young men who have done well out of unit trusts. And it is an interesting comment on the composi- tion of this Parliament that there is dis- satisfaction with Mr Noble's languid ways, even talk of his premature departure to an- other place where it is still considered a vir- tue to conceal endeavour.

The junior ministers of the DTI have also been subjected to critical scrutiny. By com- mon consent Mr Anthony Grant has proved a worthy enough fellow, but the Hon Nicho- las Ridley has come in for a measure of criticism for his imperious ways. It is hard at times to believe the evidence of one's ears in this Parliament but a Tory backbencher remarked that 'the trouble with Ridley is that he was born rich and never had to struggle'.

Paradoxically enough another slight handi- cap for a junior minister is the fact that he was held in such esteem by Mr Heath. The Skipper used to turn to him at business meetings in the presence of greying pro- consuls and say, `Well what do you think, Nicky ...' Many have neither forgotten, nor indeed forgiven, the indignity.

So as the Skipper sits late at night croon- ing a shanty over the cocoa, he must ponder the moves. Lord Carrington to the Foreign Office? Anthony Barber to Defence? Some bright lads to be brought in and a chance to show who is Master of the Vessel by dis- missing some others. But who could be safely the next Chancellor if Anthony does not pull up his socks ... Prime Ministers are not for- bidden to speculate. Only political journalists.