POLITICS
A cruel blow of fate further narrows an already unprepossessing field
SIMON HEFFER
Since 1979 the death of a Tory MP has usually provoked the feeling that the party will probably lose the ensuing by-election. The reaction to the death last Friday of Mrs Judith Chaplin, MP for Newbury, is slightly different. No one at Westminster seems to doubt the by-election will be lost; and her colleagues, showing uncharacteris- tic humanity, feel that Mrs Chaplin's death, after a routine operation, is more than the party deserves at this stage in its fortunes.
The normal considerations of de mortuis do not apply. In her abilities and her expe- rience Mrs Chaplin was an exceptional backbencher. Her most important role before entering the House was as political secretary to Mr Major. She was not just clever, but politically clever. When it seemed Mr Major was losing the 1992 elec- tion, Mrs Chaplin's friends put it down to his having listened insufficiently to her, and too much to the head of his policy unit, Mrs Douglas Hogg. Now, her friends wistfully say that had she been Queen Bee rather than Mrs Hogg, many of the humiliations of the post-election period might have been avoided too. They may be right.
Her colleagues assumed that Mrs Chap- lin would be the first of the 1992 intake to join the Cabinet. If so, only the embittered would have minded. It would have helped her that she was an able woman in an administration that wants to promote women, often whether they are able or not. Now, though, someone else can aspire to take her place at the Cabinet table.
Those with a better chance than most of doing so are the eight new MPs so far cho- sen as parliamentary private secretaries. Mrs Chaplin had not reached this level, but that is easily explained. Being a PPS allows the seniors to test the political skills of juniors; Mrs Chaplin needed no such test, and could avoid the indignity of having to carry a minister's bag. Few outside the con- stituencies of the new PPSs will ever have heard of them, which is usually the case. What distinguishes the mediocrity of this lot is that some of their colleagues seem not to have heard of most of them either.
There are one and a half exceptions to the list of nonentities. The only fully- fledged entity is Mr Gyles Brandreth, MP for Chester. Mr Brandreth is famous for playing Scrabble and appearing on televi- sion wearing fortississimo pullovers. His political abilities are uncertain. However, he is a charming and decent sort who adds colour to this monochrome Government, and therefore may be allowed to pass with- out further stricture. The semi-entity is Mr Stephen Milligan, who was briefly a BBC television news reporter. He has a manner and appearance of the sort that Lord Rees- Mogg might have deemed so alarming that he ought only to be allowed on screen once all the children are in bed.
These two, and the rest — Messrs Hart- ley Booth, Michael Bates, Jonathan Evans, George Kynoch, Eric Pickles and Gary Streeter — have one important thing in common: they did not sign the Early Day Motion of last June that called for the Gov- ernment to make a 'fresh start' on its Maas- tricht policy after the Danes had voted 'no'. Mr Booth did sign it at first. However, the legend goes that his whip, Mr Sidney Chap- man, approached him in tears shortly after- wards. Mr Chapman had apparently testi- fied to Mr Booth's soundness and secured him a place on a select committee. Mr Chapman now felt humiliated. Ever one to avoid hurting others, Mr Booth withdrew his name at once. Former friends have compared him with an amoeba ever since.
For Mr Major to advance only Tory MPs who did not sign the EDM puts him in the position of the Wehrmacht in its attempt to defend Berlin in March 1945, when geri- atrics, cripples and schoolboys were called up. Rather than having been captured on the Eastern Front, though, the flower of this military caste has been exiled by oppos- ing Maastricht. A couple are successfully, it is believed, working their passage back. Mr David Willetts, MP for Havant and ex- director of the Centre for Policy Studies, was described by Mr Major this month as the latest in a distinguished line of Tory philosophers. Even though Mr Major seems to think that Mr Lamont is, similarly, the latest in a distinguished line of Tory chancellors, this should be taken as a sign of Mr Willetts' rehabilitation. Even clever- er than Mr Willetts is Mr David Lidington, ex-special adviser to Mr Hurd and now MP for Aylesbury. Mr Hurd was reported to have felt 'betrayed' by Mr Lidington's deci- sion to sign the EDM. However, Mr Lid- ington has been behaving with heroic loyal- ty lately. The other day Mr Major rightly refused posthumous pardons to soldiers shot at dawn in the Great War on the grounds that, at the time and under the awful conditions prevailing, a policy pour encourager les autres was correct. Mr Lid- ington will be luckier.
Others who have refused to moderate their opposition to Maastricht will, howev- er, continue to wither on the back benches until the likes of Mr Howard or Mr Portillo are in 10 Downing Street. Mr Ian Duncan- Smith was voted best new member in the 1992 Spectator Parliamentarian of the Year Awards. By exploiting procedure and arcane points of European and British law, he has lived up to his promise by tripping up Mr Tristan Garel-Jones almost every time the Minister for Europe sets foot in the House. This enviable ability has won him regard on all sides. However, no one believes Mr Major is magnanimous — or cunning — enough to give him a Foreign Office job in which these skills could be deployed against Britain's rivals. Another rebel with even more Downing Street and Whitehall experience than Mrs Chaplin, Mr John Whittingdale, former special adviser to several Cabinet ministers and for four years Mrs Thatcher's political secre- tary, has also been sidelined.
Mr Major cannot be blamed for sticking by those who have stuck by him; but if he takes it to an extreme, this policy may mean Britain being governed by people one would not want to put in charge of parking one's car. The talent deficit goes all the way up. The man most MPs feel is likely to enter the Cabinet at the next reshuffle is Sir Norman Fowler, who (though a high-class politician) would scarcely be fresh blood. Allegedly well-sourced stories claim that Mr Major is now not planning a reshuffle until May 1994. When one sees the raw material he has to play with it is no wonder.
In a normal parliament an inexperienced prime minister would wait two years before reconstructing the government — it was not until 1981 that Mrs Thatcher altered her 1979 team, for example. Mr Major's unpopularity, and that of his present col- leagues, may not allow him to wait that long. Also, with the Tory majority now down to 20, a few more routine operations going wrong would not assist the leisurely approach to change. Mr Major might find that a fresh look at his back benches could benefit his party. However, with his mind closed on the questions that alienate many of the talented MPs from him, the triumph of mediocrity threatens to go unchallenged.
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